Posted on 02/24/2010 5:08:49 AM PST by nuconvert
There has been a lot of ‘expert analysis’ in the past ten days saying that the Green Movement in Iran is all washed up, and that the regime is firmly in control of events there. This follows two earlier periods of ‘consensus,’ the first claiming that there was no chance of a revolution in Iran—this was the conventional wisdom even after the explosion of anti-regime passion following the fraudulent election results announced on June 12, 2009—and then a shorter, more recent, period when the success of the revolution was taken to be inevitable.
The first was decisively shattered by the eight months of ongoing fighting against the regime; the second is as much the reflection of a touching faith in vast impersonal historical forces as of empirical data. Iran is in a revolutionary crisis, and has been for many years, but the outcome will be determined by human decisions, many of which are unpredictable.
Meanwhile, as we’ve seen so often, there’s a lot going on that we don’t hear about. The events of February 11th—the massive repression in the streets, the bloody violence directed at Green leaders and their families—have been described as a serious setback for the opposition and a triumph for the regime. Thomas Erdbrink, the Washington Post’s man in Tehran, provides a textbook example. Yet the supreme leader did not see it that way, and he probably knew more about the events of that day than foreign correspondents—who, by the way, were contained in a small part of Tehran and wereinvariably in the presence of regime watchers. On the 12th, Khamenei spoke to several hundred of his aides and followers, and he chewed them out for what he saw as the great failure of the previous day. Why? Because Khamenei had called for a massive display of support for the regime, and it did not happen.
To be sure, regime leaders have been running around, proclaiming that tens of millions of Iranians demonstrated their fealty to the Islamic Republic, but the videos and the pictures from Google Earth show they were the usual lies. Khamenei’s rage was then taken out on his praetorian guard. In the past few days, two top officers have been replaced, with more likely to follow: General Ali Fazli was fired as head of the RG’s Tehran Brigade (his successor is General Hosseini Motlagh), and General Azizollah Rajabzadeh was purged as police chief of greater Tehran, after only six months on the job. At his retirement ceremony, Rajabzadeh went out of his way to blame the Guards for both the failures and the massacres of the past months. He said that the Tehran police “did not even kill a single person, and did not lose a single person and confronted the issue with the least amount of individual and financial losses.”
Which will certainly surprise the families of demonstrators and police, who lost scores of loved ones following the electoral fraud of last June.
The vulnerability of the leaders to all manner of attack has recently been demonstrated in a variety of ways. At least two military aircraft have crashed, and two trains carrying Revolutionary Guards personnel have derailed. Nobody believes these were mere accidents. There have been several gunfights in Kurdistan and Balouchistan. The commander of the border guards, Hossein Zolqafari, announced that “terrorists” had been driven off during the runup to February 11th. He failed to tell his listeners that 9 of his men had been killed.
Meanwhile, the discontent among Iranian workers has intensified. New unions are being formed, even though all unions are illegal, and three of them have appealed to the United Nations Human Rights Commission for help. The Bus Workers Syndicate of Tehran and Humeh (in the province of Lorestan), the Workers Syndicate of Neyshekar Hafttapeh and the Free Union of Iranian Workers wrote to the UN to say: “The Islamic Republic’s security officials have announced their adherence to international protocols. Despite this fact, they have banned unions from forming in the country. Anyone active in a union will be labeled an enemy of the Islamic Republic and prosecuted.” They claimed that the minimum wage is four times less than the poverty line and added, “Millions of families are desperately trying to survive in the most inhumane conditions because their wages are not being paid on time.” They added
A massive wave of unemployment and the danger of laying off of workers has made life unimaginably hellish for their families. The only way out of these inhumane conditions requires a fundamental restructuring in the economy and society.
They called for an end to the death penalty, the release of imprisoned labor activists, free speech, the right to strike, and an end to child labor.
Nor have the Green leaders abandoned the fight. Mousavi and Karroubi have met twice since the 11th, most recently on Saturday, when they were joined by a senior cleric and by Ali Albar Mohtashemipour, the “godfather of Hezbollah,” who, it will be recalled, personally intervened to convince Supreme Leader Khamenei to release Mousavi’s top adviser. Karroubi issued a very strong statement, demanding the right of free assembly and a national referendum on the legitimacy of the Guardians Council. Both are provocations.
Faced with such internal difficulties, the regime has increased its assistance to terrorist groups, including both the Haqqanis and Hekmatiar in Afghanistan, and the top international proxies (Hezbollah, Quds, Hamas, Jibril) have been ordered to kill hundreds of Jews in North Africa, Europe and South America.
Finally, in a couple of days, Ahmadinejad will make a day trip to Damascus to coordinate various things with Assad. There is the matter of American and French requests that Assad help gain the release of their hostages. Then there is the joint Iranian-Syrian operation in Iraq, to increase the level of violence and to fund pro-Iranian political groups. Third, is coordination of the Iranian-Turkish war against the Kurds, in which the Syrians share an interest, and finally, they will discuss some new artillery and anti-aircraft systems that the Iranians are delivering.
The bottom line? The regime is fighting a two-front war. At home, they fear their enemies. Abroad, they are fearless, and are stepping up the offensive.
I will never understand why the US did not actively support the overthrow of the government of Iran. With all the problems it causes throughout the world it would have seemed to me be the easiest and surest way to rid the world of that regime. As much as I would love to see the entire country turned into a sheet of highly reflective glass, that would entail killing a lot of people who want nothing more than to be more like us.
I can think of dozens of ways to destabilize that corrupt and dangerous regime. Many of them don’t even require the killing of their leaders.
Of all the failures of the US over the last three decades I count our unwillingness to overthrow the Mullahs as the biggest. How many American lives could have been spared if we had simply had the balls to go after them in any way possible?
just another mmm-mmm-failure.
'Starts with 0.
pong
Jimmy Carter had no problem doing it. Unfortunately he was on the wrong side at the time.
We did.
Thank you, Jimmy Carter!
The short answer: Obama.
Longer answer: nobody in the current administration wanted the global Islamic reaction to an infidel country overthrowing an Islamic regime.
If the Greens overthrew the current regime, it would shortly be replaced with another Islamic regime, which perhaps might be gentler than the previous, but still be an Islamic regime.
What is probably happening as a result of this repression, is the middle class is slowly getting fed up with Islam itself. When the explosion finally comes, it will be an explosion against Islam, the clerics, and the recipients of Islamic welfare which supply the thugs that hold the regime up.
Ah yes, the political equivalent of an STD. The gift that keeps on giving. If Truman proved anyone could be president, Jimmy Carter proved it could be dangerous to have one. Compared to Obama though Carter was just the warm up act.
The short answer to your question is that Barack Obama, being a Marxist, supports totalitarian governments wherever and whenever they raise their rancid heads.
I will never understand why the US did not actively support the overthrow of the government of Iran. ............................................. Leadership???? Where is Reagan when you need him?. Put someone with balls in office that will lead the free world. Not some juvenile pot head.
I think this uprising is going to run hot and cold for awhile. The Greens will hold back until they see an opportunity to move again, then they will. I don’t think they’re allowing themselves to be cowed.
As for comments on this threat re: a major US foreign policy failure of not challenging the regime.. I completely agree. If the regime faced a stiffer challenge from us in terms of our funding and materially supporting its opponents, it likely wouldn’t have the room to make mischief elsewhere.
I suspect that the increased crackdown by the current regime in Iran is partly due to the perceived weakness of the United States and the Zero Administration. The perception happens to be correct.
The extreme cynic in me however thinks that there are people in the Administration cheering for the mullahs.
The realist in me believes the same thing. I don't KNOW 0bama is a muslim, but the record shows islam is the religion that's in his heart.
If we count future lives lost - probably in the millions...
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