Sure looks like Romney’s running in 2012

Just from the perspective of blogworthy content, I’m thrilled. A Huck vs. Palin race would be fascinating, but having Mitt in the mix all but guarantees a “centrist elites vs. populist conservatives” storyline for the nomination. Can’t. Wait.

One of the first big moves of 2012 — “Mitt Romney Names Matt Rhoades PAC Executive Director: BOSTON — Mitt Romney’s Free and Strong America PAC announced today that Matt Rhoades, who has held senior positions on major presidential campaigns and at the Republican National Committee, will serve as the PAC’s executive director. … ‘He’s been a friend and an adviser for several years now and I’m pleased that he has agreed to run the day-to-day operations of my Free and Strong America PAC. He shares with me the view that 2010 is going to be a critical election year, with many races and lots of opportunities to elect Republican candidates,’ said Governor Romney.

“Rhoades is currently a Vice President with DCI Group … He replaces Peter Flaherty, who will become a Senior Adviser to the PAC. He previously served as Communications Director for Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign … During the 2006 election cycle, Rhoades was a Deputy Communications Director in charge of research for the Republican National Committee. He also was Research Director for the 2004 Bush/Cheney re-election campaign. Rhoades also has held the position of White House Liaison at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management in the Bush Administration.

According to Ben Smith, who’s reading this as a surefire sign that Mitt’s in, Rhoades also has a pipeline to Drudge. Consider this a follow-up to last night’s Quotes of the Day that showcased the makings of a bold Romney gambit: A path to the nomination that would concede the south to whomever emerges from a Huck/Palin bloodbath and focus instead on winning New Hampshire and Michigan early and then cleaning up in the coastal states. (Don’t laugh: Scott Brown’s win reportedly has Republicans coming out of the woodwork in blue New England.) I find it hard to fathom losing Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida to an opponent and then cleaning up on Super Tuesday, so expect Team Mitt to quietly push behind the scenes for bluer states to move their own primaries up to help their guy build a little early mo.

Here’s Ron Brownstein from this a.m.’s “Morning Joe” handicapping a Romney/Palin white collar/blue collar class warfare clusterfark in the primary. My heart says “stop” but my traffic sensibility cries “proceed.” Exit question: Are Huck and Palin going to come to some sort of understanding before the primaries that only one of them should run? If they both jump in and draw off each other, it leaves Romney alone to skate through by cleaning up with centrists. And Huck, at least, would probably find that prospect intolerable.

Four things:

1.) Huckabee has basically ruled out a 2012 run. I don't think he believes he can win in 2012 (though 2016 I would not rule out).

2.) I am a bit concerned that Romney might lack the grassroots connection/awareness to realize how viscerally hated some of the members of his "band" are. He must tread lightly, and show some ability to be more loyal to the Conservative base than to the Steve Schmidts of the party.

3.) Even if Mitt shows a willingness to purge the RINOs from his team - if FR is an indicator - he is going to have a beast of a time convincing the grassroots that he is authentically Conservative.

4.) Freepers need to have a sense of history and understand that Mitt Romney, not Sarah Palin, will be the odds-on favorite to win the nomination in 2012. I say this as one of the ORIGINAL Palinistas, and a current Sarah 2012 booster. Mitt will have the Party machinery behind him, is viewed as the heir apparent by the GOP establishment, and will have the Moderate Republican money behind him from moment one. Because Sarah is in the race, he will also enjoy perhaps the most positive press coverage a Republican has ever enjoyed.

You Freepers who have been around for a while know what I'm talking about - you remember the past primaries. Team Romney is going to begin a process of getting the GOP to "tweak" the primaries in his favor, something we have seen done several times before in several races. He will succeed in many cases, much to FR's dismay - that's a simple, painful truth. The GOP establishment does NOT want Sarah Palin winning the nomination, and is going to go to great lengths to make sure that important Primary races will feature hometown Conservative alternatives to Palin in every state possible. They will encourage the usual dozen Social Conservatives to run, at least 3-4 from the South so as to prevent Sarah from sweeping the Bible Belt. Don't be shocked to see DeMint encouraged to run by the Party folks (and stay in it) all the way until after FL, and Perry pushed to declare in order to take Texas off of Palin's map.

Meanwhile, we will begin to hear our first stories about states "tweaking" or "changing" Primary rules right about Spring of 2011. States like NH and MI will decide to give more delegates to the winner, whereas places like FL will choose to give proportionate to vote percentage.

Freepers need to be ready - the cold hard truth is that Mitt Romney, because of all the above stuff we've seen before - will start out as the heavy favorite to be the 2012 GOP nominee. That means we need to avoid Hunter/Thompson/Keyes-isms.

Thoughts?

You can see the problem in this primary if it comes down to Romney vs Palin. He knows where to get the “big” money and has lots of his own. Sarah is going to have to rely on the small donations of the little people. I really believe that is why she is campaigning for McCain. He can help her with the big donors if she can get him re-elected. McCain and Romney both contributed to Scott Brown’s campaign. So, Brown is also going to campaign for McStain. In the game of politics, as much as one does not want to play with the big money, it is almost critical for getting elected.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.