PA 12th District
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POBox 630, Johnstown, PA 15907
Tel. 814-525-9171
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Posted on 02/10/2010 8:21:06 AM PST by smoothsailing
With the death of longtime congressman John Murtha, there is an open House seat in Pennsylvania’s twelfth congressional district. The state’s regular primary is scheduled for May 18, and Gov. Ed Rendell is expected to set the twelfth district’s special election for that date as well. Because of the abbreviated schedule, there will be no primary for the special election; each state party will simply nominate its choice.
If you’re flashing back to the name “Dede Scozzafava,” it’s for good reason: This situation is similar to the one that created so much controversy in New York’s 23rd congressional district last year. The GOP’s county committees selected state assemblywoman Scozzafava as their nominee over eight other Republicans. One of the other candidates, Doug Hoffman, ran against Scozzafava as the Conservative-party candidate and gradually chipped away at her support as the election approached. Right-of-center support for Scozzafava dwindled as conservatives learned of her support for same-sex marriage, card check, federal funding for abortion, the stimulus, the public option, and police action against inconvenient Weekly Standard reporters. Several days before the election, she withdrew from the race, and the following day, she endorsed the Democrat, Bill Owens. Owens won, 49 percent to 46 percent.
Two Republicans were already preparing to run against Murtha this year: Tim Burns and Bill Russell. And because Murtha’s death was so unexpected, it is possible that several Republicans who had not planned on running this cycle may choose to.
Burns is a newcomer to campaigning, but he’s experienced as an entrepreneur: He started his own pharmacy-technology company in the basement of his house, and it grew to employ more than 400 workers before he sold it in 2003. Back in November, he attended one of the rallies against the Democrats’ health-care reform. (He stopped by Murtha’s office, hoping for a chance to chat with the man he hoped to unseat, but Murtha was out.)
In 2008, Russell ran against Murtha and got 42 percent of the vote (polling earlier in the race showed him closer), holding Murtha to 58 percent. That was the smallest percentage Murtha had received since 1974.
A lot of conservatives got enthused about Russell, a retired lieutenant colonel, as he tore into Murtha for his casual accusation that U.S. Marines at Haditha had “killed innocent civilians in cold blood.” Russell said that Murtha’s comments, and his refusal to retract them, were a big factor in his getting into the race. “As an Iraq War vet, I was enraged when I heard Mr. Murtha’s endorsement of enemy propaganda.” Russell also hit Murtha for his pork-barrel politics, noting that the district’s primary export had become its young people.
To vote for one of these two Republicans, or any other, each precinct will get one representative, plus an additional representative for each 1,000 votes it cast for McCain in the 2008 presidential election, explained Michael Barley, the communications director of the Pennsylvania Republican party. Each county Republican party has its own process of selecting its representatives; some will be appointed by the county chair, others may be selected by panels.
The conferees will meet publicly, and the candidates will answer their questions. Judging by precedent, this meeting should occur in several weeks, probably in March.
The winner will proceed to face a Democrat in the special election; since the special election and the primary will take place on the same day, it is possible that two different Republicans could win — the special-election winner would serve out the remainder of Murtha’s term, and the primary winner would run in the general election in November. Barley notes that this has happened in lower-ticket races in the past, and the Hoffman experience opens the door for any Republican who’s passed over for the special-election ticket to denounce a “backroom deal.”
Sources close to the Russell campaign are hearing that Burns will be the pick. “Our guy never stopped running after 2008, and their guy has never run before,” says one Russell consultant. “It looks like they’re going to nominate Tim Burns, and if they do, we’ll just turn this into New York 23. Are they dumb enough to dismiss the guy who got more against Murtha last year than anyone else had before?” This consultant contends that Russell should be well-positioned for both campaigns; he ended the 2008 campaign with 60,000 donors. While some of those donors undoubtedly gave only out of an eagerness to see Murtha defeated, this consultant feels confident that Russell has developed a loyal base of supporters.
This cycle, Russell has raised an astonishing $2,892,109; Burns has raised a more modest $174,489. Nonetheless, Pennsylvania Republicans say that Burns can self-finance if needed, and that could be a factor in the abbreviated campaign season between the party’s selection and the special election in May.
On paper, this is a seat Republicans should have a good shot at winning. Pennsylvania’s twelfth is the only district in the country that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of R+1, meaning that it leans very slightly Republican. The district’s lines are as crooked as your least favorite Murtha earmark, as the borders were drawn to include heavily Democratic regions and exclude the more Republican-leaning suburbs of Pittsburgh. Almost 15 percent of the residents live in poverty.
Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics describes the region: “The mountains and valleys within a 100-mile radius of Pittsburgh comprise one of America’s most beautiful — and economically troubled — regions. . . . But this area has not followed the national Democratic Party on all issues. Voters here tend to take conservative stands on cultural issues and foreign policy.”
The GOP can win here — if it chooses its candidate wisely.
— Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot on NRO.
02/10/2010
Will “establishment” Republicans in Pennsylvania’s 12th District this year make the same error as their counterparts in New York’s 23rd District did last year?
Pa-12 -- now an open seat after the recent death of longtime Rep. John Murtha -- may be the scene of the same kind of “Scozzafava” drama we saw last year in New York.
Two reasons indicate that could happen: First, that the nomination process precludes a primary, leaving the nomination to insiders; and second, those insiders may not be willing to nominate a dyed-in-the-wool conservative to run in a sure-to-be-watched special election for Congress this May.
Will the establishment GOPers not only blow an opportunity for a net gain in the House, but also exacerbate relations with the growing “tea party” movement -- again, repeating the error that party insiders made in New York-23 with the nomination of liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava?
SNIP
Scozzafava All Over Again, Says Peg Luksik
One Western Pennsylvania pol who was very willing to speak on the record was Peg Luksik, veteran conservative activist who ran strong races for governor as a Republican in 1990 and as an independent in ’94. This year, Luksik is helping the campaign of retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Bill Russell, who drew 42% of the vote as the GOP nominee against Murtha in ’08 and had been gearing up for a rematch with the Democratic incumbent in 2010.
“And you have all the makings of another New York-23,” Luksik told me, saying that the local Republican establishment “has never warmed up to Bill Russell because he’s his own man” and would very likely give the special election standard to another GOP hopeful.
The Republicans most frequently mentioned for the “establishment” blessing are Washington County businessman Tim Burns and State Rep. Jeff Pyle. While neither Burns nor Pyle is a Scozzafava liberal, neither has close ties with the Tea Party movement that is rapidly becoming a force to be reckoned with in Western Pennsylvania. Russell has been working the half-dozen tea party groups throughout the 12th District -- among them the Keystone Patriots, the 9/12 organization, the 4/19ers (from the date the Constitution was ratified).
Much like their counterparts who helped elect Scott Brown senator from Massachusetts and nominated conservatives over “establishment” GOPers in three Illinois House primaries February 2nd, the tea partiers in Western Pennsylvania pack a wallop. One tea party in Westmoreland County drew 7,000 participants last year. Despite the Democratic registration edge district-wide, conservative Republican State Sen. Kim Ward and State Rep. Tim Krieger, both of Westmoreland County, recently captured districts that were previously in Democratic hands.
Luksik made it clear that whether or not he was nominated for the race expected in May, Russell would run for nomination in the primary for the full term in November.
Local Democrats seem to have no problem with “insiders”choosing their standard-bearer. Among those mentioned increasingly for nomination are State Sen. John Wozniak and former Lieutenant Governor and 1994 gubernatorial nominee Marc Singel, both of Johnstown.
Parting Shot
It is unfair to say that either of the “establishment” Republicans mentioned for the 12th District are potential Scozzafavas. But it is also quite fair to say that candidates anointed by the party chieftains tend to be less conservative than those who were nominated in primaries or in caucuses. Even before the now-celebrated New York 23 contest, there was a special election in New York’s 20th District and in three state senate races. The common denominators were that 1) a small conclave of Republicans picked candidates who were out of touch with the conservative grass-roots and 2) they all lost.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=35573
LLS
If the PA Republican party insiders are so stupid to make this race contentious when there is no reason for it to be then they deserve to lose. Bill Russell should be the candidate. He has the money, he is a good solid mainstream conservative and he has an honorable record. Tim Burns may be a good guy but the Republican party doesn’t need another rich guy running to win this. Let Burns run for any of the many congressional seats in PA that are up for grabs.
The RINO insiders of the stupid party are working 2x time to re-lose NY23.
why would this be any different for the leadership of the stupid RNC.
Inquiries to:
POBox 630, Johnstown, PA 15907
Tel. 814-525-9171
Contact me to be added to ping list.
Michael Steele just has been doubling down on idiocy these days. The guy would being just fine if he’d just shut up and focus on recruitment and fund raising. He should be riding high and instead he is fumbling around for relevancy when he just needs to be a member of the team. I feel for Michael but he needs to stop saying foolish crap. He has more capabilities than that. He never got where he is because he is a black man. He isn’t getting criticized because he is a black man. He needs to stop the whining and just win.
Not calling the constituency a bunch of racist morons would probably be a plus.
Yeah..great man and would be a plus for PA and the country.
I couldn’t have said it better myself!
Knowing how lame the GOP is, I fully expect them to nominate the 12th district’s version of Dede Scozzafava in short order.
Thank you for posting this, I was just about to do so.
We’ve been doing our best to create a drumbeat on this and its great that it has finally rising.
The fact is that his sort of bs is going on in every district in PA. As it happened in NY 23, we can assume it is the mo being used in every state in the union by the GOP.
Although the GOP is making noise like they have heard the Tea Party, they are simply trying to manipulate it and preserve the status quo of the elites in the party.
We must let them know that this is not acceptable.
Say it loud and say it proud.
Jim Geraghty and John Gizzi have done a good job of explaining the situation that we were discussing last night. The only name missing is Murtha’s & Burn’s pal Robert Gleason.
Thanks HC, see my post #13.
You must have read my mind, after reading both I thought the exact same thing. :)
They’re both good pieces and answered every question I had. It sure looks like it could turn out to be something like NY 23 if Bill Russell isn’t picked for the special election.
Amen to that, HC!
this notion of “their turn” has got to go.
“their turn” politics gave us buffoons like mccain and dole who could not win a national dog catcher race.
they RNC “leaders” think anyone can with the right magic words “lies”
Bill Russell fought Murtha when fighting Murtha wasn’t cool. He is not a Johnie-come lately opportunist. Go Russell.
Listen to him sub on Bennet’s Morning in America. He is incompetent.
LLS
Don’t forget his Gleason’s boy Dave Argle, who although not indicted or should have been, supervised those who have been indicted in Bonusgate.
Frank Ryan, a CPA, dependable conservative whose popularity in the 17th district is rising quickly!
http://www.frankryan.org/newsroom/news.htm?id=50
REFORM GOVERNMENT FIRST AND THEN BANKING
February 04, 2010
Reform government as well as banking!
President Obama on January 21 chastised the banking industry for taking such tremendous risks with taxpayer funds!
How the President’s advisors can in good conscience continuously mislead President Obama and the American people is beyond me.
First, taxpayers do not fund the FDIC insurance, the banking industry does. In fact, the industry was required in December 2009 to deposit three years worth of prepayments of insurance premiums in the amount of $45 Billion to the FDIC to cover losses.
The FDIC website states: “The FDIC receives no Congressional appropriations – it is funded by premiums that banks and thrift institutions pay for deposit insurance coverage and from earnings on investments in U.S. Treasury securities.”
Second, Federal legislation limited the amount of funds that the FDIC could accumulate during good economic times such that when the contraction hit the fund was not able to withstand the onslaught of claims through the Reform Act.
The Reform Act “establishes a range of 1.15 percent to 1.50 percent within which the FDIC Board of Directors may set the Designated Reserve Ratio (DRR). If the reserve ratio exceeds 1.5 percent, the FDIC must generally dividend to DIF members all amounts above the amount necessary to maintain the DIF at 1.5 percent.”
Deceiving the American people will not solve problems but will undermines the credibility of our elected leaders.
Third, the FDIC directed a special assessment in 2009 against all banks to further shore up the deposits. This reduced banks’ earnings further during tough economic times and reduced significantly the value of any TARP funds provided. One hand provides, the other takes away.
Fourth, the President lauded Chairman Frank yet failed to consider the government’s own duplicity in creating the economic mess to begin with.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored entities. The era of “no doc” loans created an atmosphere in which all Americans were afforded the “right” of home ownership yet those same agencies failed to discuss the “responsibility” of home ownership. Blaming banks for failed government policies serve no one.
When everyone in the industry called “no doc” loans, liar loans perhaps someone should have listened to how that sounded to most Americans. To call a loan a liar loan and then act surprised when the loan defaults is absolutely disingenuous.
Finally, to keep the “crisis” under control with below normal interest rates, the Federal Reserve is merely setting the stage for the next crisis.
What the President did during the press conference on banking reform today, is merely a blame game which will mask more serious issues in the months and years ahead. These issues will hit our nation with a vengeance in the next 18 to 24 months with potentially catastrophic results.
A perfect storm is brewing. Washington is deceiving itself and thereby setting the stage for more profound problems.
The prepayment of the FDIC insurance premiums of $45 Billion in reality contracts banks lending ability by $450 Billion since most banks are leveraged approximately ten to one. Contracting lending ability in a recession is not a good idea.
The states are increasing taxes on property throughout the nation to balance budgets. This annual assessment to allow someone the privilege of keeping their property merely makes property ownership in a recession that much more difficult. Mortgage foreclosures will increase.
Artificially low interest rates merely sets the stage for unrealistic increases in demand for homes which sets the stage for a decline in home prices once rates go back up. While the Federal Reserve could dictate interest rates in the past, our huge funding needs of over $12 Trillion may limit that ability going forward due to increasing world pressure to restore fiscal discipline to our nation.
The extension of the home buyer’s credit merely shores up an already fragile economy at great expense to taxpayers.
If the President is sincere about reforming our economy, perhaps he should start by reforming our government. Limit government spending and stop government intrusion in our lives.
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