My order (in order of likelyhood to flip, unless I'm forgetting someone):
ND 42 Hoeven
DE 43 Castle
AR 44 (field)
NV 45 (filed)
CO 46 Norton
PA 47 Toomey
IN 48 Pence
NY Gillibrand
IL Open
CA Boxer
That makes it 51 GOP seats.
ND 42 Hoeven
DE 43 Castle
AR 44 (field)
NV 45 (field)
CO 46 Norton
PA 47 Toomey
IN 48 Pence
NY Gillibrand
IL Open
CA Boxer
I don’t see the GOP picking up NY or IL’s senate seats, even in this climate (but then again, who would have foreseen them pickign up MA’s?) California is also a long shot, but more doable, based on the polling. I agree that we will, or at least most likely will, take ND, DE, AR, NV, CO, Pa, and now IN. I would add NH (where Hodes leads the Dem by 9% or so) and MO (where Blunt leads Carnahan by 9%).
Let’s not forget to focus on the AZ and FL Senate races, too. Both will be easy retentions for the GOP, so the question is WHICH GOPer will retain them?
In FL, Rubio is very competitive, and could knock Crist off if we all get behind him and get busy. In AZ, Hayworth could do the same to McCain. Two RINOs down, two net pickups for conservatives.
I was assuming that we’d win IL, making IN number 49.
And that would make WI, NY, WA and CA our hypothetical seats number 50, 51, 52 and 53. If we win half of those four, we’re still at 51.
Until a couple of weeks before the Jan. 19 election, I did not believe that Scott Brown could actually win. Well, until now, I did not believe that the GOP could actually take back the Senate in 2010. But numbers don’t lie, and it could actually freaking happen. It is certainly not the likeliest of scenarios, but it could happen, and the odds aren’t all that low. Heck, we’re halfway to 49 already.
Expect both Justices Stevens and Ginsburg to announce their retirement soon.