Posted on 12/17/2009 10:22:18 AM PST by jhpigott
Iranian Endgame
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by P. David Hornik
On Tuesday, Danielle Pletka wrote in the Washington Post that Iran is proceeding with an aggressive nuclear weapons program, and that apart from a few dogged holdouts, much of the Obama administration has come to terms with that reality.
By coming to terms Pletka means that, while recognizing Irans aggressive intentions, official Washington has resigned itself to pursuing a containment policywhich, as Pletka effectively argues, would be misplaced and unavailing in the case of Iran. But Pletka adds that privately, Obama administration officials confess that they believe Israeli action will preempt our policy debate, as Israels tolerance for an Iranian nuke is significantly lower than our own.
Also on Tuesday Israels chief of Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlinwho last month informed the nation that Gaza-based Hamas had obtained rockets that can reach Tel Avivaddressed the Iranian issue at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
Yadlin said Iran was building dispersed, overt and covert nuclear sites, was simultaneously developing a military capability that would allow a breakthrough when it so decides, has already enriched 1.7 tons of low enriched uranium at its facility in Natanz, which is enough for a nuclear weapon, and that it was time for tough sanctions on the regime by the international community.
The internal Iranian protest movement? Yadlin stated: This protest does not have a classic leadership which is capable of bringing down regimes, as leaders of the protest movement are still the regimes own flesh and blood.
But given the Wests continued dithering on the sanctions issue and delusive efforts to get Irans friends Russia and China to cooperate effectively with the democratic powers, Yadlins professed belief in sanctions could merely be a way of upholding Israels official linemeant in part to avoid appearing trigger-happy. If Pletka is right that the U.S. administration is resigned either to containment or an Israeli strike, then hopes of sanctions stopping Irans nukes are indeed misplaced.
Focusing on Israels difficult environment, Yadlin said There are places in Iran and Syria where weapons tests are carried out and you can see Iranian and Syrian scientists next to Hizbullah operatives and even representatives from Hamas and sometimes Islamic Jihad who are invited to watch. He also warned that any weaponry, no matter how advanced it might be, that is in Syrian and Iranian hands could one day be delivered to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
That is, Israel could see nukes in radical hands on its doorstep. Or as Yadlin summed up: Our enemies are challenging the IDFs supremacyin the air, in terms of intelligence and accurate weaponsin a defensive and offensive manner, and are trying to threaten our existence. The enemys abilities are still far from the IDFs abilities, and the challenge is to maintain the gap.
An Iranian nuclear capacityand the Middle East-wide nuclear arms race that is universally seen as the inevitable resultwould mean not much, if anything, would be left of that gap. In other words, if the administration believes Israels tolerance for an Iranian nuke is significantly lower than our own, the administration is righteven if, as Pletka asserts, subcontracting American national security to Israel is an appalling notion, and we cannot assume that an Israeli action would not provoke a wider regional conflict into which the United States would be drawn.
Some see the picture as less bleak and hope (for instance, here) President Obamas antipacifist statements during his Nobel Prize speechThere will be times when nationsacting individually or in concertwill find the use of force not only necessary but morally justified
. A nonviolent movement could not have halted Hitlers armies
.signal a greater realism toward Iran. Time will tell. Israels only prudent course is to assume the worst and prepare accordingly.
The only sanction I’m interested in at this point is to deprive the mullahs of their supply of oxygen. Accomplishing this by turning the temperature up a few million degrees would be a bonus.
roflololololololling @ bean counter
official Washington has resigned itself to pursuing a containment policy
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