Posted on 11/16/2009 6:06:06 PM PST by Lorianne
The good news: National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun is predicting that home prices will rise 4% in 2010.
The bad news: Lawrence Yun has never been right about anything in his entire life, ever.
Yun predicted that sales volume will also rise about 14%. I'm definitely not smart enough to try to make short-term predictions about what will happen with home prices or sales volume. But the track record suggests that Lawrence Yun isn't smart enough either.
In July of 2008, Yun opined that "I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn. In June of 2008, Newsweek guru Daniel Gross wrote that "Yun is the Little Orphan Annie of forecasters. He's always sure the sun will come out tomorrow." Lawerence Yun Watch is an entire blog devoted to exposing Yun's track record of poor predictions.
And as much as it pains me to link to a video of Glenn Beck, he actually has a pretty good exploration of the disastrous predictions of the National Association of Realtors' economists. (see below)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-89orGT8pP8&feature=player_embedded
So what will happen with housing in 2010? I have no idea. But don't get your hopes up based on Little Orphan Annie's mumblings about price increases.
NAR. The only organization more corrupt than the UN.
What a self serving joke . I predict -8%
For those of us who believe that the economy will never start to recover until housing and housing-backed investments reach a market clearing price, Yun is more of a Cassandra than an Orphan Annie!
ODD
Underwater Mortgages Could Sink Even Deeper
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33965166
But then they are getting more stimulus!
Some wise words from one of the few contrarians not swept into the vortex of a massive melt up.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), under the auspices of Lakshman Achuthan, publishes a leading economic indicator for the U.S. — when it was surging in the spring when the ‘green shoots’ were sprouting, this fellow was on bubble-vision practically daily with the good news. Well, this allegedly foolproof leading index dropped 1.4 points last week and now stands at an eight-week low. We’ll see if he gets invited back on TV in the next little while.
As an aside, S&P 500 operating earnings are coming in north for $15 for Q3, a quarter in which GDP growth came in at a 3.5% annual rate. Few believe we will sustain that growth rate but think about it for a second, the best we could do with 3.5% growth was an annualized earnings figure of $60 for operating EPS. So where does this thought process come from that we are going to be seeing anything close to $80 of earnings for 2010 — what the equity market has de facto priced in — with a consensus view that we will only see 2.5% GDP growth for next year?
As part of the extension of Fiscal Stimulus 1, the U.S. Administration is using taxpayer money to subsidize the homebuilders
In the latest fiscal foray, the Administration is using taxpayer money to subsidize the homebuilders — no other sector in the economy receives so much favorable treatment and yet the industry adds so little to productivity growth.
As part of the extension of Fiscal Stimulus 1 (they don’t dare call this Fiscal Stimulus 2 for fear of losing all the independent voters):
Jobless benefits have been extended a further 20 weeks;
The first-time home buyer tax credit has not only been extended to April but expanded to include repeat trade-up buyers;
And, believe it or not, the homebuilders, the folks who helped get us into the mess we are in today through their irresponsible overproduction strategies, are going to receive a massive stimulus from the federal government in the form of carry forward provisions allowing the companies to offset losses incurred in 2008 and 2009 against profits booked as far back as — get this — 2004! This is despite the fact that, as Ivy Zelman points out, the homebuilders are sitting on a ton of cash.
This is truly a fiscal policy that is trying far too hard to pursue the old
Any realtor or employee of realtors has a very strong financial incentive to encourage potential buyers to believe the downturn is over.
basically he is being paid to lie.
I’m a Realtor and was at the National Association of Realtors Convention. I don’t think I was the only one that was embarrassed by his prediction. I attended a session that showed indicators which would prove just the opposite of what he is preaching.
True, but the home builders association runs pretty close to a tie.
a $6500 tax credit for repeat homebuyers.
^
Tax Credit to Aid First-Time Homebuyers; Must Be Repaid Over 15 Years
http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=186831,00.html
However, the credit operates much like an interest-free loan, because it must be repaid over a 15-year period.
Q. How and when is the credit repaid?
A. The first-time homebuyer credit is similar to a 15-year interest-free loan. Normally, it is repaid in 15 equal annual installments beginning with the second tax year after the year the credit is claimed. The repayment amount is included as an additional tax on the taxpayer’s income tax return for that year. For example, if you properly claim a $7,500 first-time homebuyer credit on your 2008 return, you will begin paying it back on your 2010 tax return. Normally, $500 will be due each year from 2010 to 2024.
and eliminating the requirement to repay the credit
http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=206291,00.html
The credit was expanded in 2009 for homes purchased in 2009, increasing the amount of the credit and eliminating the requirement to repay the credit, unless the home ceases to be your principal residence within the 36-month period beginning on the purchase date.
^
Just found that
Super. Let’s cancel all the stimulus then.
C’mon... when have you EVER known a Realtor(TM) who didn’t counsel that higher prices are right around the corner! (”...so you better buy RIGHT NOW!!!”)
Realtors(TM). You gotta love ‘em. Just don’t listen to ‘em or believe ‘em.
This guy was hired because Baghdad Bob had already been snagged By Al-Jazeira. Really.
>> This guy was hired because Baghdad Bob had already been snagged By Al-Jazeira.
On the other hand, if you told me that Baghdad Bob was out of prison and was now selling real estate in Dearborn, I’d probably believe you.
>> This guy was hired because Baghdad Bob had already been snagged By Al-Jazeira.
On the other hand, if you told me that Baghdad Bob was out of prison and was now selling real estate in Dearborn, I’d probably believe you.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
The Cheerleaders at NAR, National Association of the Retarded, are at it again.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
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