far left before it can be canted back to it's appropriate position.
It's all about momentum.
Posted on 10/27/2009 4:15:53 PM PDT by neverdem
The current state of American politics presents a paradox. On the one hand, survey [1] after survey [2] testifies to the rock-bottom standing of the Republican Party. Fewer Americans identify with the party than in the past, and fewer trust it to deal with the country’s problems. On the other hand, there are hard-to-ignore signs of a conservative resurgence. A 15,000 person Gallup survey [3] out today shows that 40 percent of Americans now identify themselves as conservative (up from 37 percent at the time of Obama’s election), while only 20 percent regard themselves as liberal (down from 22 percent). Far more independents (35 percent) consider themselves conservative than was the case a year ago (only 29 percent).
These findings would be less compelling if they were not linked to conservative shifts on specific issues--but they are, and the Gallup organization enumerates a considerable list. Among them: increasing opposition to government regulation of business and gun ownership; an uneasy feeling about the influence of labor unions; increasing support for immigration restrictions and government promotion of traditional values; and diminished support for strong action on climate change. The percentage of Americans who believe that government is trying to do too much stands [4] at its highest level (57 percent) in many years. Trust in government is near all-time lows, and Americans believe [5] that 50 cents of every federal tax dollar is wasted--the highest level ever.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that unified Democratic government has sparked a conservative counter-mobilization. Because we cannot rerun history as a controlled experiment, we will never know whether this could have been avoided had the Obama administration and Congressional Democrats adopted a different strategy. In any case, it’s too late to reverse it.
Still, Democrats must ask themselves whether there’s anything they can do over the next year--for example, a meaningful shift toward fiscal restraint--to reduce the intensity level of the conservative assault. If not, the combination of an energized opposition and an electorate battered by high unemployment, slow growth, and the perception of out-of-control spending could set the stage for an ugly outcome. This wouldn’t mean that Republicans had regained credibility as a governing party; odds are that it will take more than two years to erase the public’s sour memories of the Republican congressional majority and George W. Bush’s presidency. It would mean that a substantial portion of the electorate wanted to send Democrats a message that they had gone too far.
The Clinton administration (in which I served) was derailed by the results of its first midterm election, and it took Democrats a decade to recover. While there are reasons to believe that Republicans won’t do as well this time, Democratic leaders should take seriously the possibility of a significant electoral reverse and act strategically to make it less likely.
I can’t say I have seen a poll with at 15000 sample. That means the poll is pretty accurate and good news for us conservatives.
Tea parties. Ignore them at your peril.
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Or a pretty outcome for some of us. I think advising the Democrats to exercise fiscal restraint at this point is shouting into the wind. They are spending like drunken sailors, that is, sailors who are more drunk that the Republicans were when they were in charge. Meanwhile, BO pursues his goal of distributing ever last dollar of American wealth, wealth that has been accumulated over the course of more than 200 years of hard work, to the Third World.
It took a Carter to produce a Reagan.
Let's see what happens this time.
“American politics presents a paradox”
No paradox. Just the wrong assumption. Most voters do not vote based on ideology. Those of us who do are the rare freaks.
Most voters vote based on “how their parents voted” and on “who appears friendly to them”.
Republicans, and especially conservatives, mistakenly think everyone is ideological like they are. At the same time they (we) adopt an image of being mean-spirited and unfriendly.
Thus voters vote for their friend, which too often is not us.
Well, Reagan was already around long before Carter, but if you mean produce in the sense of “bring to power” then I agree. But it wasn’t like Reagan became a conservative because of Carter
I really think we’ll know a lot more by this time next week. If McDonnell, Christie and Hoffman all win, that will be a huge shift. I doubt health care goes through this year if at all if all three of them win. Health care is around 8% on intrade to pass this year, the lowest it’s been in a long time.
It goes without saying that if health care doesn’t go through, cap and trade won’t. Same with immigration or any other big item. Obama will likely look to the middle and try to find a welfare reform type thing to look good to independents. But basically come next November he’ll really have no legislative achievements to point to.
I meant it in a sense that, IMO, Reagan may have never been elected if the left hadn’t failed so miserably under Carter.
>> On the one hand, survey [1] after survey [2] testifies to the rock-bottom standing of the Republican Party.
When you have reached rock bottom, there is nowhere to go but up.
On the other hand, I’m not sure the (R)s really have reached rock bottom. Exhibit A: Newt Gingrich. Exhibit B: John McCain (B1 is his little twit of a daughter Megan). Exhibit C: Lindsay Grahamnesty.
However, it could be that as the (R)s spill their guts on the fall to rock bottom, the Conservative party rises like a phoenix from their sloppy innards... er, I mean ashes, excuse the mixed metaphor.
Obama can no more "look to the middle" than he can fly. Just like oval track race cars, he can only turn left and leftier. If he tried to turn right he would spin out of control.
Emphasis mine. The author is attempting to relate Republicans and conservatives. Big, hugh mistake.
I have always been a conservative. And it's gotten more intense with age :) But I'm less of a pubbie today than I was two years ago. Most of that transition is due to my state's damned, frigging Pandsey Graham. I seriously thought about voting for his Dem opponent (who was more conservative than Grahamensty on many issues) but didn't. Next time, assuming there is a next time, same circumstances, I will. NO MORE RINOS!
agreed
They sure spent a lot of lie capital pretending the “teabaggers” were nobodies representing nobody. Now they are chewing their fingernails.
The other interesting point. They ignore the “moderate” state of the Republican party with it’s current low approval rating. Could it have anything to do with all those conservatives who rejecting the limo liberal Rinos? This is why the news liberals all shout for Republicans to be “moderate” so they can win the “majority.” Liberals know the party base is conservative.
I agree with you. I might add that the term ‘conservative’ may mean differently from one person to another. One may be a social conservative but love to pay high taxes to help poor people. Other may hold tightly to their hard-earned money and despises any kind of tax, but is happy that his son is gonna to married his lover, Steve, next month. Hence, I don’t want to read to much about the number of self-declared ‘conservative’.
That's true, but in the wake of Carter, such extreme differences highlighted the Reagan administration like the dawn after the darkness. This was enhanced when our situation steadily improved over the next eight years. Now "Peanut Jimmy" has got to be rejoicing: He'll no longer fill the position of worst President in all of American history ever again!
You’re right about the definition of conservative. And it cuts both ways.
Most people of Mexican ancestry are conservative on 10 of 12 issues. But they have more of a classical definition of conservative and liberal where conservative is identified with the privileged gentry of Europe and with government protected mercantilism/corporatism in Latin America and not with small government, freedoms or capitalism. Democrat means little d democracy while Republican is associated with the “Republican Guards” and the Republicans of France when France controlled Mexico.
The Black sub-culture has a different variant of the definition.
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