Posted on 10/23/2009 10:06:28 PM PDT by blam
Nouriel Roubini: Big Crash Coming
Written by Dave Nadig
October 23, 2009 00:00 AM
Dr. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and international business at the Stern School of Business at NYU and chairman of RGE Monitor, is perhaps best known for his prescient predictions of the financial market collapse in 2005.
Dr. Roubini will be the keynote speaker at IndexUniverse’s upcoming “Inside Commodities” conference on Nov. 4 at the New York Stock Exchange. We sat down with Dr. Roubini ahead of the conference to take his temperature on global markets, the role of oil (NYSEArca: USO) and gold (NYSEArca: GLD) and the impact of regulation.
Index Universe (IU.com): You’ve said that you’re worried we’re already sowing the seeds of the next crisis. Where do you see that most directly?
Dr. Nouriel Roubini (Roubini): Well in commodities, I look at oil prices. They fell from $145 last summer, came down to $30 earlier this year and now they’re back close to $80. But if I look at the fundamentals of demand and supply, demand is down to 2005 levels, supply and inventories are at all-time highs. In my view, the movement in oil prices is not fully justified by the fundamentals.
There are improving fundamentals. There is a global recovery. But that justifies oil going from $30 to maybe $50. I think the other $30 is all speculative demand feeding on it—speculators and herding behavior. Last year, when oil was at $145, that killed the global economy. I worry that oil is going to go up above $100 for reasons that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of supply and demand. Oil at $100 would have the same negative effects on the global economy as oil did at $145 last year.
Last year, when oil was at $145, the global economy was still growing. Right now it has collapsed, and is recovering. Oil pushing above $100 would have nasty, negative real trade effects and real disposable-income effects on all importing countries: U.S., Europe, Japan, China, India; all the countries that were hit by the oil shock last year. So that’s an element that is in my view totally speculative, and dangerous to the global economy.
IU.com: Is that true elsewhere?
Roubini: I could make a similar argument for other commodity prices. In my view, rising commodity prices are not justified by the fundamentals.
There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the U.S., zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets: commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.
It’s going to go crashing down, in an ugly way. That’s the basics of the argument.
[snip]
I see the dollar collapsing to the point where the price of anything in US dollars becomes meaningless. We’ll all be using Yuang or Euros.
I don’t see it being that bad. But it will be bad enough to get a global currency started.
Good article.
?
lol.
whats the Chinese currency called?
mark
I agree that this will happen eventually, probably sooner rather than later. However, I believe that before this happens, there’s going to be a blow up in the carry trade. This will be caused by an increase in the dollar which leads to a massive unwinding of the carry trade positions and therefore massive short covering. Trillions will evaporate overnight.
Well opinions are worthless without money behind them...If you believe the market will decline, please tell us how much you’ve shorted the market??? Give us details with dates and $.
Maybe we can build floating cities on those cargo and tanker ships. Soveriegn ships.
Perhaps the purpose of all of this is to force a global currency standard.
Did I say the market would decline?
It may well increase dramatically with devalued dollars.
The Zimbabwe Stock Market shot up like a rocket. One week a stock might have been a quarter and the next several dollars. Might have had less actual value though.
I wouldn’t put money in stocks, but thats just me.
Government intervention makes things, even laws and fiat rules, make things unpredictable. Thats never good for business.
Nah.
I just posted the article...I didn't offer an opinion.
I don't know why not. It just seems like there's nothing behind the market. And it also seems like the Dow has a Fairy Godmother. Even today, it seemed to be struggling to get back to 10,000 at the close, although it didn't quite make it ... under very light trading.
I don’t believe I said either of you offer an opinion.
I did say in essence that opinions without money behind them are worthless. I also asked if anyone believes the market will decline to state how much they are shorting.
Would anyone like to put their money behind their opinion?
Short contracts have a deadline, don't they? That makes it hard to act on a vague but overwhelming feeling that the market is going to tank at some point. I suppose it might be reasonable to just sell out, if you really feel that way ... but then you're in dollars! They don't call it "uncertainty" for nothing.
Bank failures Top 100, Only Part Of Industry Woes
By DANIEL WAGNER, AP Business Writer Daniel Wagner, Ap Business Writer – 4 mins ago
WASHINGTON – The cascade of bank failures this year surpassed 100 on Friday, the most in nearly two decades. And the trouble in the banking system from bad loans and the recession goes even deeper than the number suggests.
Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of other banks remain open even though they are as weak as many that have been shuttered. Regulators are seizing banks slowly and selectively — partly to avoid inciting panic and partly because buyers for bad banks are hard to find.
Going slow buys time. An economic recovery could save some banks that would otherwise go under. But if the recovery is slow and smaller banks' finances get even worse, it could wind up costing even more.
[snip]
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