Posted on 10/19/2009 12:36:02 PM PDT by djf
INTERNATIONAL. Legendary global investor and chairman of Singapore- based Rogers Holdings, Jim Rogers said the lack of supply in agricultural products is especially concerning.
This cycle may last for many years as no one is bringing new supply on stream, Rogers said.
In a Yahoo Finance video clip Rogers explains the reasons he is bullish on agricultural commodities. As he sees it, "most agricultural products are still depressed on a historic basis."
"The story is not over, not for a while," he said.
"I don't see any reason it's going to be over for a few years because no one is bringing new supply on stream."
"A catastrophe is looming," he says. "The world is going to have a period when we cannot get food at any price in some parts of the world.”
Rogers on Rice and Cotton
Rogers believes Rice and cotton prices are likely to soar in the coming decade as prices of agricultural commodities boom because of declining inventories and production disruptions.
“If we start having problems, weather problems, production problems, the price of rice is going to skyrocket over the next decade,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg interview.
"When it happens I don’t know. But I know that the fundamentals are ripe," he added.
Agriculture production needs to expand by 70% through 2050, as the global population rises to 9.1 billion from 6.7 billion, Jacques Diouf, director-general at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, said October 12.
World food production will face increasing competition from the biofuel market “which has the potential to change the fundamentals of agricultural market systems,” with production set to climb by almost 90% over the next 10 years to reach 192 billion liters by 2018, said Diouf.
“Global agriculture will have to cope with the effects of climate change, notably higher temperatures, greater rainfall variability and more frequent extreme weather events such as floods and droughts,” Diouf told a food forum in Rome.
“Rice is a basic food stuff for much of the world,” Rogers said. “We know that inventories are low. I would not buy rice today necessarily. But I expect rice prices to be much higher over the next decade.”
“We have a gigantic problem developing in the agriculture market,” Rogers told Bloomberg.
Increasing demand for biofuel may encourage farmers to switch to corn and other crops from cotton, which would support prices of the fiber, he said.
“When cotton is going to explode in price, I don’t know,” he said. “But I’m sure it will, just as will everything during a bull market.
“I’ve owned commodities since 1998,” said Rogers.
“I still own them all. Some day, I presume, there’s going to be a wild hysteria at the end of the bull market. Hopefully, I’m smart enough to sell if and when that happens.”
Does this mean Rogers is no longer bullish on Gold?
"I am quite sure gold will go over US$2,000 per ounce during this bull market, Rogers said in a Yahoo Finance video clip this week, adding that the yellow metal will continue to rally as the US dollar is on its way to losing status as the world's reserve currency.
"Is it going to happen? Yes," Rogers says. "I don't like saying it [and] I'm extremely worried about it but we have to deal with the facts. America is not getting better [and] the dollar is going to be replaced just like pound sterling [was]."
Still, "I wouldn't buy gold today," Rogers says.
He said he still owns gold though it's not his favorite metal. "Gold is mystical to many people."
I think I'll make more money in other commodities that are more useful and which are cheaper, he said.
ping
Being in the agriculture industry, this years corn crop (for central ohio area) is not top quality, much damage reported.
the cogency of any argument tends to be overshadowed by overt media whoredom.
Let them eat health care.
Food is one thing I am not worried about. Between 1968 and 1974 the liberals told us we would all be starving by 1990 and no later than 2000, yet, we are the fattest worldwide.
We have more production capability than we use.
You can still buy a 50 pound sack of white long-grained rice, grown in Louisiana, for about $16 at Costco. Find some food-grade plastic buckets to keep it in...it might be more valuable than gold some day, and certainly more edible.
media whoredom by whom?
WTF are you mumbling about??
Jim Rodgers. Mr. Bowtie. Mr. Motorbike-around-the-world. Mr. CNBC. Mr. I-used-to-be-George-Soros'-partner.
Do I have to draw a picture?
Agreed. Jim Rogers is usually right about things. Stalin used massed starvation to gain total control. It is very effective.
Put a piece of dry ice on it before you seal it up. The co2 it creates will keep the bugs out.
When the dollar collapses, we will experience shortages in many areas. I believe that the delivery system for agriculture will be severely impacted. Although agricultural production may not be impacted, I believe that the food will not get to the consumer.
Yup...
My plan is to simply eat fat people when things get real bad, a zombie buffet if you will ...
Ah, but there's the rub. Where will you get your fava beans and chianti?
Water, Food, Guns, Ammo, Seeds! I take a load of them over gold any day!
Not really, the idiots would work hard to steal your gold than food! Trade goods tobacco, liquor,toilet paper and so on.
See:
http://thepowerhour.com/news/items_disappearfirst.htm
The picture you draw of Jim Rodgers is an ugly caricature.
Jimmy, a free market guru, is an old friend of arch-Reaganite Larry Kudlow.
He is a legend in the markets for good reasons, one of which is the miracle he and Soros achieved with their Quantum Fund.
I heard that the reason haters hate, is because they’re jealous.
I didn't realize this was a Rodgers Caucus thread, where 50% of the marketplace of ideas wasn't allowed.
Two policy changes would vastly increase food supplies:
1) Stop putting corn into gasoline tanks. Use corn for food.
2) Ban organic farming. It produces far less per acre.
Irregardless of how he made his money or business, the point here is that he is focusing on agriculture.
The figures I have seen are showing break-even or declining agricultural outputs for the major crops pretty much every where they are grown. YOY improvements have vanished.
Running out of food is one thing that could push nations/continents towards war and conflict.
Just read where frozen nitrogen works better than frozen CO2 because it is heavier than air.
Also, your suggestion of freezing for a week was also highly recommended.
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It is possible and perhaps even likely that the US Dollar will fall, and fall dramatically. I do not think the fall will be very long lived.
The trend in global climate is considerable cooling. We have had it for the last 3 years. We have not actually had warming since 1998. Our sun is inactive, no sunspots. The last time it was this inactive was during the “Maunder Minimum”. During the Maunder Minimum one third of the population of Europe starved to death. The Maunder lasted about 70 years. Can you imagine what only a few years of no crops in Siberia or Canada would mean. Can you imagine what it would be like if Washington State, Idaho, The Dakotas, Montana, Wisconsin and all the states of the Northeast could not produce crops because they didn't have a summer? I have some ideas and they are not pretty. With 10 degree cooler temperatures and a considerably shorter growing season our Midwest and south will still produce enough to feed the US and our exports will be worth many times what they are now. The world over will be clamoring for dollars.
That was before Obama was in office to decide what Americans can eat and what they can’t. And to redistribute it around the world...
Don't forget coal, firewood, liquid fuels.
And booze-for medicinal and barter purposes. ;)
Mylar bag with oxygen absorbers!
However it produces more profit per acre.
Are you looking for a job?
This thread has been updated.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2306857/posts
I use oxygen absorbers, which leaves a nitrogen atmosphere without the hassle of the dry ice.
yes, when the American Farmer starts Going Galt, I do imagine they will have a bit of a problem on their hands.
(not to worry though....they can always bus out some Yutes form the inner-city, expropriate the land and have them farm it....Mugabe style)
bean counter...
how long would you expect a sack of rice to keep in a dark cool pantry or garage? not much good to put it up and have it spoiled or bad when you need it... just wondering, thanks
Did you miss the part where i mentioned a food grade bucket to keep it in??
I found pails at the local grain mill that will fit an entire 50 pound bag of rice, or flour, if you shake it down well. Then I put in an oxygen absorber pack and install the air-tight lid (it has an o-ring seal). The absorber draws up all of the remaining O2, leaving an inert atmosphere that nothing can live in.
Sorry if I wasn’t clear about that, but I am not storing rice in just the bag.
"A catastrophe is looming," he says. "The world is going to have a period when we cannot get food at any price in some parts of the world."Do we get to pick where?
Maybe those 20 acres of rice paddies I own are worth something after all.
Ditto that! My goal for the year was to put up 4,000 pounds of food in deep preservation: dehydrated and sealed; canned; sealed mylar bags with desiccant. About 95% there. Mrs. Crusher does the first two, I do the third.
Plus a boat load of standard hybrid AND open pollinated vegetable seeds. And don’t forget the chickens in the back yard.
Get Jim Rawles’ book. It could save your life.
properly prepared you’re looking at decades, my friend.
keep the bugs out?....in an airtight container is that necessary?....I read or heard somewhere that putting your dry goods in the freezer for two weeks kills any spores that might be in them.....
how about those little desicant (sp?) bags you can buy, to zap up the oxygen?
"This is looking like the repeat of early 2008 when the price of rice escalated. 2009 has been a bust for farmers. The world is suffering from massive drought and inconsistent rainfall. With global grain stocks at dangerously low-level, this can result in global famine starting in Q2 2010.
"Bloomberg reports:
"India, the world's second-largest rice grower, may become a net importer for the first time in 21 years in 2010, potentially sparking the kind of "panic" that sent prices to records in 2008, an agricultural economist said. India may import as much as 3 million metric tons next year after the wet season harvest plunged.....
This is happening all over the world as the world sinks into the next period of glacial advance.
Billions will die horrible deaths.
In the meantime the Algore and his band of merry nutcases are going to try lulling the broad masses into believing it's actually getting warmer and better.
A sign ~ when Fiji Islanders begin burning their homes to keep warm, you will know things have changed a bit.
We should also have our zoning changed so that people can take the many 2-story split-foyer design homes, do some minor rehab, and turn the lower portions or the built-in garages into stalls for cattle. People normally did that up until quite recently, and they are still in vogue in Tibet and China.
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