Posted on 08/14/2009 6:44:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
The Hotline's Tim Sahd assesses which House seats are most likely to switch party control in 2010.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
Here’s National Journal’s latest analysis on which 15 House seats are most likely to change parties in 2010. Election junkies will have much to look at.
Top 15 -
2 Republicans
10 Democrats
2 open seats
1 special election
At this time.
Politically, November 2010 is quite a ways away.
Bart Gordon in Tennessee is extremely vulnerable. He voted for Cap and Trade and is siding with Pelosi on some of the ObamaCare.
Bart’s in my neighboring district, which continues to trend Republican, but the main problem we have with him, Lincoln Davis and Tanner is no first tier challengers have stepped forward. I think many are biding their time until 2012 when we redraw the lines with a GOP lean and an eye to driving out those three to give us a 7R-2D majority.
I would like an audit of the all government agencies and the all public servants....just to remind them who they work for......
whoever calls for stopping funding for acorn will get my vote
1. Louisiana-02 Anh (Joseph) Cao (R)
2. Delaware-At Large Michael Castle (R)
3. Illinois-10 Open Seat
4. Pennsylvania-06 Open Seat
5. Virginia-05 Tom Perriello (D)
6. New Mexico-02 Harry Teague (D)
7. Alabama-02 Bobby Bright (D)
8. Idaho-01 Walt Minnick (D)
9. Florida-08 Alan Grayson (D)
10. Maryland-01 Frank Kratovil (D)
11. New York-23 Special Election
12. Ohio-01 Steve Driehaus (D)
13. Colorado-04 Betsy Markey (D)
14. Ohio-15 Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
15. (tie) Washington-08 Dave Reichert (R)
15. (tie) Mississippi-01 Travis Childers (D)
1. Louisiana-02 Anh (Joseph) Cao (R)
2. Delaware-At Large Michael Castle (R)
3. Illinois-10 Open Seat
4. Pennsylvania-06 Open Seat
5. Virginia-05 Tom Perriello (D)
6. New Mexico-02 Harry Teague (D)
7. Alabama-02 Bobby Bright (D)
8. Idaho-01 Walt Minnick (D)
9. Florida-08 Alan Grayson (D)
10. Maryland-01 Frank Kratovil (D)
11. New York-23 Special Election
12. Ohio-01 Steve Driehaus (D)
13. Colorado-04 Betsy Markey (D)
14. Ohio-15 Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
15. (tie) Washington-08 Dave Reichert (R)
5. (tie) Mississippi-01 Travis Childers (D)
Not exactly, the 16 seat,(they have two tied at 15) are 6 GOP seats, including the 4 most at risk according to them, and 10 Dim seats.
The two open seats are open because a GOP Congressman has decided to run for another office. The special election winner is because a GOP Congressman was appointed Army secretary by Obama. So who knows if this seat will be on the list after the special election.
The nauseating commentary is written from a leftist perspective. It is interesting to note that even many leftists see public opinion shifting against them.
NY#23, GOPer Dede is DOA. Never going to be elected! The list must be 90 Democrats long. And longer even.
Driehaus has got to go, although he’ll probably veer as far right as Nancy’s leash will let him. I can’t wait til the Cheviot Harvest Home Parade, I’ll bet, if he shows, he’ll be warmly welcomed.
I missed the tie, but the rest I didn't automatically consider the open seats or special election as Republican like you did. With the PA race, considering ACORN and Philly's ability to engage freely in election fraud without any concern for being caught, I'd be inclined to write that one off. But in this climate, perhaps not.
.The sub-title reads: "The Hotline's Tim Sahd assesses which House seats are most likely to switch party control in 2010." So if his predictions hold, Republicans gain seats. But again, I wouldn't put money on anyone being safe this election cycle. I'm looking forward to September 12. The "tea party" rallies, if they turn out to be massive protests, could throw everything into turmoil. I certainly hope so!
1. Louisiana-02 Anh (Joseph) Cao (R)
2. Delaware-At Large Michael Castle (R)
3. Illinois-10 Open Seat
4. Pennsylvania-06 Open Seat
5. Virginia-05 Tom Perriello (D)
6. New Mexico-02 Harry Teague (D)
7. Alabama-02 Bobby Bright (D)
8. Idaho-01 Walt Minnick (D)
9. Florida-08 Alan Grayson (D)
10. Maryland-01 Frank Kratovil (D)
11. New York-23 Special Election
12. Ohio-01 Steve Driehaus (D)
13. Colorado-04 Betsy Markey (D)
14. Ohio-15 Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
15. (tie) Washington-08 Dave Reichert (R)
15. (tie) Mississippi-01 Travis Childers (D)
I "hope" that we can make some "change" in the make up of Congress this election cycle. It all depends on if this current citizen activism, anger with Washington and overall unrest in the streets can be sustained and maintained.
I pray that we can make big gains in 2010 or things will most likely get really ugly.
Spot on about my wench, Kilroy. She’s toast.
We need these names WITH faces. It will bother them more.
We have some very creative people in here...lets show the traitors that we are serious about getting them OUT OF OFFICE!
Of course we all know what we are up against....lets use some of their tactics AGAINST them...for once.
Rules for Radicals
http://www.vcn.bc.ca/citizens-handbook/rules.html
Rule 1: Power is not only what you have, but what an opponent thinks you have. If your organization is small, hide your numbers in the dark and raise a din that will make everyone think you have many more people than you do.
Rule 2: Never go outside the experience of your people.
The result is confusion, fear, and retreat.
Rule 3: Whenever possible, go outside the experience of an opponent. Here you want to cause confusion, fear, and retreat.
Rule 4: Make opponents live up to their own book of rules. “You can kill them with this, for they can no more obey their own rules than the Christian church can live up to Christianity.”
Rule 5: Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. It’s hard to counterattack ridicule, and it infuriates the opposition, which then reacts to your advantage.
Rule 6: A good tactic is one your people enjoy. “If your people aren’t having a ball doing it, there is something very wrong with the tactic.”
Rule 7: A tactic that drags on for too long becomes a drag. Commitment may become ritualistic as people turn to other issues.
Rule 8: Keep the pressure on. Use different tactics and actions and use all events of the period for your purpose. “The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition. It is this that will cause the opposition to react to your advantage.”
Rule 9: The threat is more terrifying than the thing itself. When Alinsky leaked word that large numbers of poor people were going to tie up the washrooms of O’Hare Airport, Chicago city authorities quickly agreed to act on a longstanding commitment to a ghetto organization. They imagined the mayhem as thousands of passengers poured off airplanes to discover every washroom occupied. Then they imagined the international embarrassment and the damage to the city’s reputation.
Rule 10: The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative. Avoid being trapped by an opponent or an interviewer who says, “Okay, what would you do?”
Rule 11: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, polarize it. Don’t try to attack abstract corporations or bureaucracies. Identify a responsible individual. Ignore attempts to shift or spread the blame.
According to Alinsky, the main job of the organizer is to bait an opponent into reacting. “The enemy properly goaded and guided in his reaction will be your major strength.”
I agree with Ahn Cao as being highly endandgered. He won solely because of William Jefferson’s corruption.
Next year, I suspect that the black ledership in that district will try to choose one (maybe two) top-notch candidates to challenge Cao.
Short of a knock-down dragout battle royale between the two leading Dems causing bitter feelings, I don’t see Cao as being able to win re-election.
If I were Cao, I’d look at my election as similiar to that of Michael Flanagan beating Dan Rostenkowski back in 1994. Basically, enjoy your time in Congress because it’ll be a short one.
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