Posted on 08/05/2009 8:58:53 PM PDT by neverdem
The extent of Democratic losses in next year's midterm elections will rest, in part, on the ability of Democrats elected in conservative or Republican districts over the past two cycles to survive aggressive GOP attempts to defeat them.
More than four-dozen districts sent a Democrat to Congress last year while casting a plurality of their votes for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president. Of the 49 Congressional districts where this occurred, 11 gave McCain more than 60 percent of the vote (see chart).
But not all of those 11 look equally vulnerable. Six of those successful Democrats won handily in 2008 (with at least 59 percent of the vote) - Reps. Charlie...
--snip--
Those who survive next year will face additional difficulties in 2012 and 2014 as the "I'm an independent Democrat" argument sounds less appealing in the face of years of Democratic legislative activity.
Unless House Democrats who hail from such districts are rescued by redistricting, most of them will have an extremely difficult time surviving a second midterm election.
By 2014, voters are likely to be less enthusiastic about the Obama presidency than they are now, creating a political environment in which voters are willing to sacrifice Members of Congress whom they like in order to send a message of change.
By that point, it won't be enough for moderate Democrats to point to their voting records. Their partisan connection will be enough to do them in, especially since six years of Democratic control of the White House and Congress is likely to entice stronger Republican candidates (who waited for the best year to run) into these contests.
Sound familiar? It should. For years, moderate Republicans survived in Democratic districts, but when voters decided that a fundamental change was needed, those Members found themselves out of a job.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
This is exactly what I’ve been wondering. If Democrats from red districts go very public with their votes against Pelosi and Obama’s directives, I think they’d have a hard time losing against a more liberal Democrat or a Republican.
I don’t think they’ll want to risk losing DSCC or DCCC funds.
Man, 6 years is a long time.
If it works, they’ll do it.
We have little Fausts running all over the place in the Capitol.
This sounds like the beginning of the end for ‘The One.’
This article just assumes the Obozo is going to get elected for a second term. I hope we're all smarter than that.
Vote with Pelosi, they're gonna get killed in their districts.
Vote against her, and they suffer her wrath.
This is still a center-right country. Pelosi's majority was always a house of cards...
Yes, they could win if they defy their glorious leader. The way it looks now, they're going to obey orders and declare war the citizens they vowed to serve.
If they do choose to follow Oboma, it's a political death wish, and that's exactly what they'll get.
Oboma has angered every tax payer in the country. The parasites adore him, but the feeders are not enough.
One thing is certain. The democrats sure won’t get re-elected if they vote WITH Obama. My sincere hope is that Obamacare doesn’t pass and that Cap and Trade doesn’t pass. We might have a chance to turn things around if they don’t pass. If these bills pass, we’ll never have our Country back!!!! And to vent....who does Congress think they are spending $200 million dollars of our money on three deluxe airplanes to taxi themselves around!!!!??? In an economy like this, they should be tightening their belts like we are out here!!!!
Obomas, Pelosis, and Reids Stalinism has frightened a lot of people - including moderate democrats. People voted for a little change, but not for totalitarianism.
I have a neighbor, a nice older woman, who was terrified of guns. She now has a pistol and permit. I can hear her and her husband having target practice over the hill. She's afraid of something. If gun sales are booming like never before, it's not irrational to think millions of other people are doing the same thing.
That will depend on what happens between now and election. As for us "all" being smarter than that? I can only say that there are a lot of stupid people voting in this country. And, the reason there are a lot of stupid people voting is because the liberals/Democrats have gone to the trouble to engineer it that way.
If Pelosi can strongarm 10-12 of the 40 or so Dogs she can let the rest “vote their conscience” and still come away with a 218=217; 220-215 win. The 30 Dogs go home saying they tried their best and DNC cuts off funding for any possible primary challenger. I think this comes down to 10 to 15 people.
They’ll look for a way to play both sides. They’ll get a few minor concessions from Pelosi plus some pork barrel stuff for their districts, then vote with Obama, and then use weasel words to try to convince their voters that they got all these great concessions, and that the health reform legislation is absolutely essential because without it employees and employers would have to pay 1000% more in premiums and the whole health system would collapse, etc. Then they’ll just hope for the best and hope that voter indignation will peter out.
When the election comes around, they’ll be posing as conservatives again and will use some really dirty smear tactics on their opponents. They’ll get lots of money from the DNC for voting the right way.
As far as the dims dims in districts that voted for McCain in 2008 are concerned,
They have 2 options.
# 1. Vote for 0bama’s DeathCare , and lose for sure in 2010
# 2. Vote against 0bama and have a very small chance of pulling through in 2010
“More than four-dozen districts sent a Democrat to Congress last year while casting a plurality of their votes for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president. Of the 49 Congressional districts where this occurred, 11 gave McCain more than 60 percent of the vote (see chart).
But not all of those 11 look equally vulnerable. Six of those successful Democrats won handily in 2008 (with at least 59 percent of the vote)”
I think this guy had better have a look at Barbara Boxer's poll numbers in California:
“The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Senator Barbara Boxer leading her relatively unknown opponent, former Hewlett-Packer Hewlett-Packard (you'd think I'd have looked at my printer 20 inches away . . .) CEO Carly Fiorina, by only four points, 45%-41%”
If even Boxer's in trouble, in very deep blue California, I don't see how some Democratic congressman in a district that voted Republican in 2008, can be considered “safe”. Things are changing very rapidly for the Democrats..for the worse.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2300776/posts
They’ll opt to save their job because they’re now seeing Obama will destroy the Democrats party for a looong, looong time
Peter Jennings said about the Gingrich Contract w/America midterms in ‘94: “America threw a temper tantrum”.
Just wait my liberal friends-—this is much, much bigger.
One would think Obama would realize the import of his Presidency, but he’s staining libs and all the brothers(unfairly,imho) with his radicalism and his
hatred for this country.
It won’t end well. How can it?
“By 2014, voters are likely to be less enthusiastic about the Obama presidency than they are now, creating a political environment in which voters are willing to sacrifice Members of Congress whom they like in order to send a message of change.”
So we’re just assuming that Obamamessiah is still going to be president in 2014 after the 2012 election? Have we already figured out the ACORN vote?
If the Blue Dogs don’t want to suffer Pelosi’s wrath, they can vote to take away her speakership!
The best way for “blue-dogs” to get re-elected is change their party to GOP.
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