Actually, now is the worst time for Israel to strike. They should’ve done it already. Striking now is a no-no, and here’s why:
1. The attack will unite the hardliners, who will claim their fierce rhetoric and threats are now necessary against the “evil” Israel (it’ll give the regime a good excuse to keep Nutjob as the president)
2. It will give the regime an excuse for emergency rule/martial law
3. It will distract people from protesting and trying to bring down the government, and may even earn Ahmadinejad a few more supporters
4. It could drive the nuclear program underground. When Israel bombed Iraq’s reactor at Osirak, Saddam didn’t stop with his program, he just continued in secret. We would never have known about it had he not invaded Kuwait and caused us to go over and investigate. The US was shocked to find how far along the Iraqis were in their nuclear program. Had Saddam waited a few extra months to invade Kuwait, he could’ve done it with a nuke.
5. Rafsanjani is currently in the process of trying to force Khamenei out of power and prevent Ahmadinejad from re-assuming office. He is at odds with Mujtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s son, who wants to be the next supreme ruler. The clerical establishment is starting to splinter, and even some mullahs are protesting in the streets. An attack by Israel would instantly unite them again. Rafsanjani would be distracted from trying to give Khamenei the boot, and the mullahs would unite against Israel instead of focusing their anger at each other.
If a country is divided and unstable, the last thing you want to do is attack it and unite everyone against the attacker. Just let it fall under its own weight.
A well placed Mossad bullet here and there might be more potent than a squadron of aircraft.
“If a country is divided and unstable, the last thing you want to do is attack it and unite everyone against the attacker. Just let it fall under its own weight.”
gulp... that sounds like America today....