Posted on 05/10/2009 8:28:54 PM PDT by nickcarraway
A top private risk analysis firm gave embattled Pakistan a three-in-ten chance of a military coup even before the latest offensive by
Taliban rebels, according to a noted US analyst.
New York-based Eurasiagroup, whose head of research is top former State Department, White House National Security Council and CIA official David F Gordon, said in a little noticed, late April report that it was more than possible the Pakistani Army would step in to stabilise the rebel-threatened country.
The premise of Eurasiagroup's "scenario" is that "the global economic crisis proves too much to handle for the political leadership in Pakistan", writes Jeff Stein, National Security Editor of Congressional Quarterly in his "SpyTalk" column.
The report was evidently written before Islamic Taliban rebels overran the Swat Valley this month, forcing the army into barricaded camps and threatening the viability of the government of President Asif Ali Zardari, he noted adding, "Presumably, the risk of a military coup is far greater now."
Before that, the Eurasia report gave the nation a "30 percent" chance of losing its elected government to an army general like Pervez Musharaf, who seized power in 1999, and his predecessor, Gen. Zia Ul-Haq, who led the country from 1977 until his fatal plane crash in 1988.
"As in the 1990s, the military concludes that it must intervene in politics for the sake of the nation-to stop the spread of militancy, revitalize the economy, and clean up civilian politics," the report envisioned.
"New Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kiyani had sought to distance the military from politics, but the political crisis between the PPP (Pakistan People's Party) and the PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) boosts the military's political clout and its willingness to intervene."
"Kiyani does not pursue a full-fledged military coup, but rather the 'Bangladesh model.' The military removes President Asif Ali Zardari and his administration and establishes a caretaker government, which it tasks with the job of stabilizing the political and economic situation," the report suggested.
"The military appoints Western-educated technocrats with no independent power base or political connections to serve in the new government. These officials maintain close contacts with Kiyani, who makes all strategic decisions," it said painting the coup scenario.
On another continent...
The military could conclude that it must intervene in politics for the sake of the nation-to stop the spread of criminality, revitalize the economy, clean up civilian politics, imprison the plunderers, hold special elections and uphold its oath to defend against all enemies, especially domestic. /random thinking
Thanks for posting. Very interesting.
A couple dozen calculated airstrikes could take care of this Taliban uprising and protect Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal.
The problem is that a lot of the military personnel there sympathize with the Taliban.
Looks like Obama wasn’t ready to start when his feet hit the ground.
Obama continues to fail.....
More like 50 % chance I think.
Maybe higher then 50%, the military could help to stabilize the situation if they topple the sitting Govt, but the real problem is the Islamacist Djinn is out of the bottle in Pakistan now, rarely does it go back inside willingly.
Good thing we got rid of Musharriff! He might have kept the lid on like he was doing!
Taliban rebels, according to a noted US analyst.
I'd rather have a military coup than see it fall to the Islamists. Then again if it does fall to the Islamists and India freaks out and all out conventional/nuclear war breaks out between the two nations we could see more Americans gain jobs as all those out-sourced customer call centers and software engineering facilities in India get blown up. Plus the Indians might take out all the Taliban with nukes for good measure. This could be a win-win.
Thirty percent, short term, one hundred percent in the long run.
Considering the country’s history of coup d’etats this sounds about right.
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