The answer to that question (what kind of judge will he appoint?) depends on whether he’s willing to risk his popularity. He can get almost anyone he wants confirmed, but if he chooses a radical jurist, there would be a public backlash. But if he makes a safe, uncontroversial choice, he wins PR points and expends little political capital. I don’t know what he’ll do, but how much he’s willing to put on the line now will answer that.
I agree with you that if he goes overboard a lot of Conservatives will go ballistic and make the next ellection about right-to-life and defense of marrige. The Democrats do want to do that of course. They want to make elections about the Ammendments issues like free speech and unlawful search and seizue and such. They’re still wrong there, but they can muddle things a bit more.
I believe that SCOTUS appointments were the main issue, and we made the simple case that Roe needed to be abolished, we would win.