Rainy Weather Forecasts Misunderstood by Many

Yahoo News ^

[nobama08]

question on those days where the chance of rain is less than 100 percent.

But only half the population understands what a precipitation forecast means well enough to make a fully informed answer, a new study finds.

If, for example, a forecast calls for a 20 percent chance of rain, many people think it means that it will rain over 20 percent of the area covered by the forecast. Others think it will rain for 20 percent of the time, said Susan Joslyn, a cognitive psychologist at the University of Washington who conducted the study.

The reality: "When a forecast says there is a 20 percent chance of rain tomorrow it actually means it will rain on 20 percent of the days with exactly the same atmospheric conditions," Joslyn explained.

[nobama08]

Obama voters.

[briarbey b]

Now I’m really screwed up. (biiiggg sigh.)

[Texas Fossil]

Have you ever wondered why weather forcasters always over predict bad weather.

They spend tons of money trying to figure a way to keep you glued to the TV. That is how they make their money, buy charging advertisers according to their audience. The more that watch the more they make. Simple?

It is not about accurate forcasting (which is impossible), but about stirring us up.

[wastedyears]

I prefer to know the temperature and dew point. I forgot exactly the conditions between the two to produce precipitation, but I most certainly learned it in high school earth science.

I can’t believe some people are so stupid.

[Mark was here]

This is an out rage, how can Obama voters be expected to be ready for Digital Television, when they cant even understand a weather forecast,(think Katrina).

[HiTech RedNeck]

The dew point and temperature will tell you when you are going to get.... DEW! (Or, frost)

[Ed Condon]

I am going to make the prediction that there will be a 50% chance.

[stayathomemom]

Those who responded incorrectly were more likely to say they'd wear a jacket or bring an umbrella, suggesting they thought it was definitely going to rain.

I think they are inferring a little too much with this question. Maybe some people really hate getting wet and will be prepared for any chance of rain. Or maybe they are mothers.;-) "Wear a sweater, I'm cold."

[chris_bdba]

I guess this would expalin how democrats can go on TV lie through their teeth and their voters applaud?

[Right Wing Assault]

The dew point and temperature will

The dew point tells you how low the temp can go.

Also tells you how humid it will feel in warm weather. Dew points in the 50s and below feel dry. Upper 60s and above feel humid.

Dew point is useful.

[nobama08]

And grocery stores. Snow predicted - run out and buy bread and milk (and beer). LOL

[tomkat]

The Bell Curve

It ain't rocket surgery . .

[Don Carlos]

You could be right. Or not.

[nobama08]

LOL

[alarm rider]

Public schools.

Produces idiots.

[ClearBlueSky]

All I know is that the New Orleans area has the WORST weather people in the nation! They’re more entertainers than meteorologists- and they are consistently WRONG. 100% cbance of rain/violent weather + warnings galore means- sunshine.
20% chance means street flooding. They can’t successfully predict rain moving from one parish to another.
But- they are the ‘experts’ on hurricanes!
They were ALL wrong about Katrina( except David Bernard, who quickly moved to Miami where real meteorologists work.) The ever-ditsy Margaret Orr predicted we’d have ‘blustery weather’ from Katrina- as of that previous Saturday morning!
Not a ONE weather person on air here could predict stink in a port-o-let on Mardi Gras day.

[Citizen Tom Paine]

The key thing to remember is that when there is a 30% (or greater) chance of rain, take your umbrella with you.