Republican holds early lead for Gillibrand seat

politico.com ^ | February 06, 2009 | Josh Kraushaar

[neverdem]

A new poll released by Jim Tedisco’s campaign suggests why Republicans rallied around his candidacy so quickly in the special election for Kirsten Gillibrand’s House seat.

He’s well-known from his tenure as the Republicans’ state Assembly Leader, and well-liked — at least for now — by voters in New York’s 20th District.

The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows that a 51 percent majority of voters view Tedisco favorably, while 13 percent hold an unfavorable impression. His 64 percent name identification is quite high for a first-time congressional candidate.

Tedisco holds an early lead over Democratic businessman Scott Murphy, who is largely unknown throughout the district. Tedisco leads Murphy, 50 percent to 29 percent.

But Murphy has the ability to quickly get his message out — he loaned his campaign $250,000 and already has about $600,000 cash on hand at the early stage.

“While Scott Murphy is unknown to district voters, his personal wealth and fundraising ability — he has already raised over $600,000 — provide him with the financial resources to make this race competitive,” said Tedisco’s pollster Patrick Lanne.

“That being said, Jim Tedisco’s deep roots in the district and his proven track record of advocacy for upstate New York establishes him as the clear front-runner in this campaign.”

The poll, commissioned by Tedisco’s campaign and the NRCC, surveyed 400 districtwide voters between Feb. 3-4 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

[Frantzie]

The Republican needs to tell the constituents that Obama just signed a exec order to let jundreds of thousands of Palestinian “refugees” (Hamas) into America and they will get endless welfare freebies.

Also Obama will not prosecute people involved in 9/11 and USS Cole terrorism. This is today’s Obama Democrat Party.

[fieldmarshaldj]

If Tedisco wins, he’ll be only the 4th Republican nationwide since 1995 (and first since 2001) to win a special election previously held by a Democrat for a House seat:

Tom Campbell 1995 CA (Norm Mineta’s seat - resigned)
Bill Redmond 1997 NM (Bill Richardson’s seat - resigned)
Randy Forbes 2001 VA (Norm Sisisky’s seat - died)

[darkangel82]

Campbell was a Republican?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yes. Remember, he may have been a RINO, but he did have the balls to vote for Bubba’s impeachment in a rodent-leaning district. Give him that much.

[editor-surveyor]

"

Corvette Tom, the Wee Publican!

[BillyBoy]

A 50%-29% lead in the polls is quite impressive for a non-incumbent. I wonder just how strongly this district leans Republican. Looks like Tedisco is the next Congressman from New York, barring some unforseen disaster in his campaign.

This shows that Gillibrand's selection for U.S. Senator is a net gain for us even in the worst case scenario that she morphs into a Hillary clone -- at least we get her house seat back. Without her being appointed, Gillibrand would have likely stayed in the House for a long time and faced only token GOP opposition. I never thought I'd say this, but thanks Governor Patterson! ;-)

I hope Tedisco consistently scores over 80% ACU ratings, that would quite refreshing from the "moderate" GOP old guard that used to represent New York.

Now if we can just find a good mainstream Republican (i.e. doesn't hang out with terrorists or worship the Clintons) that can keep Peter King's long island house seat in GOP hands, it will be time to start popping the champagne in NY.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Just to venture a guess, all things considered, I'd expect the margin for Tedisco to be more like 55-45%. The Dems have to try to put on a game attempt to hold it. It's astonishing to realize that in 2002, John Sweeney won it with 73% (and in '04, 66%). Nearly 80,000 people failed to vote for him in '06 that did in '04 while Gillibrand improved upon the Dem performance by 30,000 (or about 1/3rd). If Sweeney got the same number of votes in '02 as he did in '06, he still would've prevailed by about a 55-45% margin. We shall see.

[NeoCaveman]

If Sweeney hadn’t choked his wife, no one would know who Kirsten Gillabrand is today.

[fieldmarshaldj]

He choked his wife and Donald Sherwood in PA choked his mistress (another ‘06 casualty).

[rmlew]

Sweeney also went drinking at a fraternity party. Major alcoghol problem with that guy.

[Impy]

According to this (sadly only) 90% complete list of CDs by Presidential vote http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161

it was 51-48 Osama which means by NY standards it should be safe GOP. Poltics1 calls it a swing district. Gillibrand beat John “choke a b*tch” Sweeney because of said wife-choking and a dwi arrest. Still it was only by like 6/7 points or so. She then obviously achieved personal popularity. Rough Mellisa Bean analogue.

[Impy]

I see Wikisuckia has a nice list.

Looks fairly even over the last several decades.

[Sun]

Tedisco is no milk toast Republican. Jim Tedisco fought against then Gov. Spitzer when Spitzer wanted to grant illegals driver’s licenses. He will liven up Congress, and is tough, but at the same time he is a personable man who connects with the people!