Posted on 11/03/2008 10:18:30 PM PST by Chet 99
Released: November 04, 2008
Reuters/Zogby Battleground 8-State Surveys: Obama Holds On in GOP Territory
Perennial toss-up states playing their traditional roles
Final Numbers!
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: OBAMA 311, McCAIN 174, TOSS-UP 53
UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama enters Election Day in a very favorable position to be elected President, having made inroads on formerly Republican turf, while GOP candidate John McCain plays defense. Here is the final wrap-up of battleground states in the race for the White House 2008.
The surveys were conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, 2008. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-605, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%.
Here are the states where Obama leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:
|
Pennsylvania (22)
|
Nov. 3 |
Nov. 2 |
|
|
||
|
Obama |
51.2% |
53.7% |
|
McCain |
41.4% |
40.0% |
|
Other/Not Sure |
7.4% |
6.3%
|
After McCain made a play for the Keystone state a couple of weeks before Election Day, it appears voters have turned their backs on him, as Obama leads by ten points.
|
Ohio (20)
|
Nov. 3 |
Nov. 2 |
Oct. 26 |
|
Obama |
49.4% |
50.2% |
49.7%
|
|
McCain |
47.4%
|
43.9% |
45.1% |
|
|
|||
|
Other/Not Sure |
3.2% |
5.9% |
5.3% |
Obama is now beating McCain among Independents, 60%-27%, an 18-point jump from last week. His other gain is among 18-29-year-olds, where he now leads by 30 points.
|
Virginia (13) |
Nov. 3 |
|
Nov. 2 |
Oct. 26 |
|
|
Obama |
51.7% |
50.7%
|
52.0 |
|
McCain
|
45.3% |
44.6% |
44.8 |
|
|
Other/Not Sure |
3.0% |
4.7% |
3.2
|
A 17-point lead among independents propels Obama to his lead here. He also leads among both men and women, and among moderates, his edge over McCain is two-to-one.
|
Nevada (5)
|
Nov. 3 |
Nov. 2 |
Oct. 26 |
|
Obama |
53.2% |
50.7% |
48.2
|
|
McCain |
42.4%
|
42.9% |
44.0 |
|
|
|||
|
Other/Not Sure |
4.4% |
6.4% |
7.8 |
Obama is leading by a wide margin among independents, and he is also doing well to win 16% support from Nevada Republicans in the state that borders the home state of his opponent. He holds a small lead among men, and a big 19-point lead among women.
|
Florida (27) |
Nov. 3 |
|
Nov. 2 |
Oct. 26 |
|
|
Obama |
49.2% |
47.5
|
49.7 |
|
McCain
|
48.0% |
46.2 |
46.4 |
|
|
Other/Not Sure |
2.8% |
6.4% |
3.9
|
Obama's lead among independent voters, 60% to 32%, is keeping him in the ballgame here. Both candidates are doing well with their base. Turnout and get out the vote efforts will decide Florida.
|
Missouri (11)
|
Nov. 3 |
Nov. 2 |
Oct. 26 |
|
Obama |
48.8% |
47.4% |
48.2%
|
|
McCain |
48.8%
|
45.7% |
45.7% |
|
|
|||
|
Other/Not Sure |
2.4% |
6.9% |
6.2% |
It is as close as they come here, but Obama's small edge among independents helps keep him in the game. He also leads by 20 points among those who have already voted, and barely leads among women. McCain leads among men, but only by a small margin.
Here are the states where McCain leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:
|
North Carolina (15) |
Nov. 3 |
Nov. 2 |
Oct. 26
|
|
McCain |
49.5%
|
49.3% |
46.4% |
|
|
|||
|
Obama |
49.1% |
47.7% |
49.7% |
|
Other/Not Sure |
0.4% |
3.1%
|
3.9 |
A dead heat here, with McCain winning a bit more of his political base than Obama is from his. Obama leads in the New Economy areas of Charlotte and Raleigh Durham, but McCain leads everywhere else.
|
|
|||
|
Indiana (11) |
Nov. 3 |
Nov. 2 |
Oct. 26 |
|
McCain |
50.4% |
49.1%
|
50.2 |
|
Obama
|
45.1% |
43.9% |
44.0 |
|
Other/Not Sure |
4.5% |
7.0% |
5.8
|
McCain leads by five points here, which is helpful for him, but Obama still maintains a small edge among independent voters. McCain also leads among both men and women.
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1375(11/4/2008)
Good bye, Zogby.
Zogby gave 311 to Kerry in 2004. Let’s hope he keeps his “stellar” record in tact!
Why is Zogby still gainfully employed......??????
Judging from this, I’d say that DemocRATS have stopped identifying themselves as “republicans” to the pollsters and started claiming that they are “independents.”
Vote baby vote!
So on Wednesday Zobgy will put out a press release touting how his error rate has cut in half as he has improved his polling system.
Meanwhile he’ll be off by more than 5% in EVs this time, and probably a similar amount in the popular vote. And he’ll be outside his own margins of error.
Because when he leaks crap to Drudge, people go crazy and subscribe to his subscription service. He’s laughing all the way to the bank.
Those NV results are hilarious. Even this exit polling of their early voters which has like 15% more dems than repubs only shows McCain back by 5. Same day voting will even out the numbers of repubs and dems and McCain should win. I do find it interesting he’s closed the gap in OH and FL according to Zogby - of course we know those races are tight and should be won with turnout.
Also he has McCain ahead 5 in Indiana. So probably McCain is ahead 10 or greater - they close first and that should give us some momentum into the central and western states. I want IN to come in strong to keep everyone voting out west in CO and NV.
Has Zogby ever been right?
I’ll eat crow if he’s correct. No way is this within any margins of error.
He must be sipping “the cooking sherry”.
“Has Zogby ever been right?”
1994 and 1996 were his glory years. He’s been in decline ever since. He’s the Clown Prince of polling.
By the way, I have really appreciated you posting these flashback polls over the last few weeks.
I consider your efforts on this a true service to FReepers and any lurkers.
NOBODY should believe the “polls” or consider that it isn’t worth getting out there and voting...and these posts show exactly why. Actual turnout is key...get out there and VOTE, PLEASE!
In each of these polls, McC’s position improved. Yet in his national tracking poll, McC’s position fell thru the floor. How can the state polls be so inconsistent with the national poll? Both can’t be right.
You know I’m a big fan of election history. So, Zogby is predicting 311 EVs for Obama. Are these the same states that he predicted for Kerry four years ago?
I think you can see where I am going here....
Has Zogby ever been right?
Okay, that’s it, Mr. Zogby! I’m gonna stay home and not bother going to the polls since Kerry is going to win!
This demoralized me and devastated me and made me feel that voting for a Republican would be futile.
kthnxbye
I’m going to start my own polling company in ‘12. Imagine getting paid to make up numbers?
Here’s my first poll for July ‘12.
Palin 87
Obama 12
Undecided 1
Analysis: With an unemployment rate at 50%, Obama is even having trouble holding onto his base of do-nothings.
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