All eyes on Pennsylvania as bellwether of McCain's fate

The Washington Times ^ | November 4, 2008 | Stephen Dinan

[2ndDivisionVet]

The political pros say they'll be watching to see whether Pennsylvania goes red Tuesday - if so, Sen. John McCain might pull off one of the greatest comebacks in political history and be on his way to the White House.

But if Sen. Barack Obama holds Pennsylvania and collects Virginia or Indiana, two states that haven't gone Democratic since 1964, a landslide is in the offing for Democrats, and that could help them win down-ticket races that could give them a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

"If you think of the Electoral College, and Barack wins [Pennsylvania], it is difficult for McCain to overcome," said Rep. Gregory W. Meeks, New York Democrat. "If Pennsylvania goes to McCain, then it's a horserace. It indicates undecideds and independents are breaking his way."

In 2000, the bellwether was Florida, in 2004 Ohio and this time Pennsylvania.

"If it goes big for Obama, then you have the economy and the reverse Wilder effect," Mr. Meeks said, meaning that people who didn't want to admit to pollster - or to their friends - they were voting for a black Democrat actually did just that.

The final polls close in Indiana and Virginia at 7 p.m., and Pennsylvania closes its polls an hour later. In between is Ohio, which closes at 7:30 p.m. and which is critical to any Republican map.

"Pennsylvania is the bellwether state if I had to pick one, but I'd also say Ohio," said Tim Havrilek, a political consultant in Kentucky. "Democrats have an edge in Ohio, but Pennsylvania has a little of everything - mirrors the nation. It's the one to make a fair assessment for the rest of the nation."

[2ndDivisionVet]

Cross your fingers...

[exist]

But they already decided the race was over weeks ago. Cover your ass time I guess.

[Rocko]

May rain in the PM in Philadephia. In the primaries, Hillary lost there, but took the state. PUMAs waiting to pounce. Good signs.

[John123]

Sen. John McCain might pull off one of the greatest comebacks in political history and be on his way to the White House.

I disagree. John McCain was never behind in the first place... it was only due to poll shenanigans by the media...

[Girlene]

Don’t know about the overall election, but I think PA will probably swing McCain’s way.....and that’s a good sign.

[Dundee]

About what time should we know one way or the other?

[M1911A1]

I’m thinking Mac might do it, but I’m getting my “Impeach Obama” sign ready just in case. I’ll post it right next to the “Impeach Bush” sign my neighbor has.

Hell, I’ll put it up even if McCain wins.

[Prole]

Come on, Pennsylvania.

Please help us prevent let this racist street thug from destroying our Republic.

[southernnorthcarolina]

As you watch the Pennsylvania returns, bear in mind (if it goes the same as in 2004) that the Philadelphia returns come in early. If that pattern holds, Obama will get off to an early lead -- a large one. Don't write off the state too early.

On the other side, I recall that in Michigan, Detroit's returns come in late. So don't get too excited if McCain is running close, or even leading, in early returns there.

[babydubya1981]

I wonder how many votes for Obama are already banked before the polls open?

[webschooner]

I know Obummer must be scarier than all the Haloween and slasher movies ever made put together ... or I wouldn’t be hoping and praying really hard that Juan friggin McCain, of all pipples, wins this thing.

We live in strange times indeed ...

[advertising guy]

McCain will win tomorrow but The media and Obama and the nights evil will blame it on the “R” word, racism and they would be wrong.

The decision maker tomorrow is the real “R” word....religion.

The 38 yr old and up folk go to church at least twice a month. This silent massive voting number technically are not voting for McCain but against Obama and his ilk. The Bible tells them to. For a reward, they’ll wait for Sarah.

You know and I know, the second Sarah knows where the bathrooms are in the White House, America is saved.

The religious vote is that “listen to what you don’t hear” majority that McCain manages to tweek and that Obama loathes.

[rlbedfor]

mccain does not have to have PA to win. bush (the two term pres.) never got PA. just saying.

[time4good]

Call it crazy but, what’s the possibility that it’s an Electoral tie at 270 each, and it’s decided by Thanksgiving for McCain? The left’s going to go nuts on this one.

[JEH_Boston]

John McCain was never behind in the first place... it was only due to poll shenanigans by the media...

We have a winner!

[free me]

A tie can only happen at 269 each.

[lightman]

As you watch the Pennsylvania returns, bear in mind (if it goes the same as in 2004) that the Philadelphia returns come in early. If that pattern holds, Obama will get off to an early lead -- a large one. Don't write off the state too early.

Roger that.

A GOP poll watcher from the "red T" (the midstate and upper tier counties) tells me that she does not expect to be able to deliver results from her district until after midnight.

[Peelod]

How “enthusiastic” will Rendell be in his “support” for 0?

[goldstategop]

It all depends on how enthusiastic central Philly's black Obamabots are for the One. No one knows the answer.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[PennsylvaniaMom]

Forget calling it the "Bradley Effect" or the "Wilder Effect" tomorrow 0bamabinBiden will get 'Keystoned' by the good, hard working people of Pennsylvania.

Believe!