Posted on 11/01/2008 8:16:44 PM PDT by Rumierules
Today, I served as a poll watcher at an early voting location in Jacksonville, Florida. Jacksonville is a red city, but the location where I was stationed is pretty blue.
The polling location only had 8 voting stations, so the line moved slowly even though the staff was efficient. Only 613 votes were cast over a 6 hour period and the poll workers seemed pleased with that level of voting.
For two separate hour long periods, I kept some statistics on demographics. The results:
Black males = 30 13.5% Black females = 52 23.3% White males = 58 26% White females = 77 34% Others (the balance)
In 2004, Jacksonville as a whole voted for Bush over Kerry 58 to 42%. But I researched this very interesting statistic -- in 2004, Kerry slaughtered Bush in Jacksonville in early voting, 57% to 43%. (This figure does not appear to include absentee ballots, which were likely favorable to Bush) So, a Kerry early vote lead of 14% turned into an overall loss of 16% or a 30% swing all in all.
Currently, Obama leads McCain in early voting (I am excluding absentee votes so we are comparing apples to apples) by a 52 to 30% margin. If McCain supporters state-wide are like Bush supporters were in Jacksonville in 2004, they are not early voters. They are election day voters and, to a lesser extent, absentee voters. If Jacksonville voters turned a significant early voting deficit into a significant election day win, it seems reasonable to conclude that McCain voters can do the same.
As an aside,best T-Shirt of the day appeared to be an Obama shirt, but on closer inspection, I saw this:
Tax me.
Abort me.
Support me.
Obama '08
Jax has some blue areas. :-) Many thanks for helping monitor the polls.
You mean democrats leads republicans 52 to 30%, right? We don't know how people voted yet.
This is good news?
According to your numbers, Kerry led Bush by 14 in 2004 but Obama leads him by 22. Is that correct (excluding absentee ballots) ?
i expect disruptions on tuesday. look for dim supporters to create problems in red areas
Right, good point
You mean democrats leads republicans 52 to 30%, right? We don’t know how people voted yet.
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Exactly.
52 to 30 margin? What about the other 18 percent?
so Obama is doing better against McCain than Kerry did against Bush in early voting? how is this encouraging? i know you don’t know how each person really voted, and this is only party identity, but you did use the candidates names and not party identity...
According to your numbers, Kerry led Bush by 14 in 2004 but Obama leads him by 22. Is that correct (excluding absentee ballots) ?
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Kerry led Bush by 14 in Jacksonville. Currently, Democrat early voters outnumber Republicans by 22 state-wide(excluding absentee ballots). If you include absentee ballots, the Dem lead drops to a little over 7%.
52 to 30 margin? What about the other 18 percent?
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Independents.
This is good news?
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Yes. Historical data shows that, for whatever reason, Republicans don’t appear to be fond of early voting but come through on election day.
true... but the numbers you posted are worst for the GOP than in 2004... are the absentee ballots included in 2004 numbers? i still don't see the silver lining... and i always look for the silver lining... i must be missing something...
Oh Noes! I never thought of that!
Rioting at the polling places! Now I won’t sleep tonight, even though my polling place will be placid and peaceful. I have a son doing hard duty in the cold, monitoring a polling place in the ‘urbs!
I don’t need to worry about polling intimidation! But, you are right. It is a possibility!
so Obama is doing better against McCain than Kerry did against Bush in early voting? how is this encouraging? i know you don’t know how each person really voted, and this is only party identity, but you did use the candidates names and not party identity...
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My data on early voting from 2004 was from Jacksonville only, a very red area. Bush won Florida by 5%. He won Jacksonville by 16%. My data on the current Dem lead is state-wide. You’d expect a Dem lead to be greater state-wide than in red-area Jacksonville.
I think it was Nixon who referred to his “Silent Majority” of voters who gave him a resounding win when no one expected it.
This mainstay of our country’s population still rules, not in the media or on the street, but quietly, in the ballot box.
They are missed by pundits because they don’t fall readily into the buzz-word categories like black, liberal, Polish, Republican, etc., etc. Kerry was sailing smoothly toward victory and Bush voters walked stooped-shoulder until election day.
IMHO
won’t happen here in TX, but in BG states, red areas, i believe there will be problems. i have no doubt that they know they are close and will stop at nothing to win.
The key point is the dramatic turn around that occurred on election day in Jacksonville. Obviously, the same would need to occur in Florida, state-wide.
Remember, Bush beat Kerry by 16% in Jacksonville after being down 14% to him in early voting. We don’t need to beat Obama by 14% in Florida, just 3% would be okay. If a 30 point swing can happen in Jacksonville, a similar swing could happen state-wide.
I am hoping that the silent majority shows up in full force to renounce this attempt at overthrowing our government by this radical communist thug.
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