Posted on 10/18/2008 9:51:46 AM PDT by Bob J
For those wanting to know the inside story on how and why polling companys weight their samples, Rasmussen has done a pretty good job of explaining it.
Here you can get an overall explanation of the methodology and rationale;
The Value of Party Weighting for a Tracking Poll
Next they explain why there may be large differences between polls;
Why Polls Sometimes Show Different Results ,p>
Rasmussen establishes the weighting for the polls by conducting a party affiliation poll of 15k every month. Here they show the results since 2004;
Here's the bug. Since 2004 their Party Affiliation numbers have see-sawed somewhat since they are based on political conditions at that time. IMO in 2004 they saw an increase in republican identification leading up to the election due to concerns over the war in Iraq/terror and doubts about Kerry. In 2006 there was a likewise trend toward dems due to electorate frustration about Bush over the WOT and the economy, leading to a dem victory in the midterms.
The party identification numbers in the last four years hav averaged...2004 = +2.4% dem, 2005 = +1.9% dem, 2006 was +4.1% dem and 2007 was +4.8% dem.
However in the first 2 quarters of 2008 there was a jump to +9% dem. Huh?
This jump in dem identification is not only historically without precedent, there is nothing from a national, cultural or financial perspective to explain it. In Jan 2008 we started to see the US winning in Iraq, the economy was basically sound, the DOW at 13000 and there were no pressing cultural issues. Rasmussen weakly explains this by saying the "Pubs were having a hard time".
Baloney. The only plausible explanation for such a dramatic and unprecedented change in party affiliation over such a short period of time is manipulation.
Now I don't know if this was being done by Rasmussen "Party Affilation" polling employees (how do you "weight" this poll, BTW?), Operation Chaos or dem/ACORN fraud, but for Rasmussen to use these obviously manipulated numbers as a basis for his entire polling methodology is at best suspect and at worst professional incompetence.
FReepers have been right all along. When looking at Rasmussens numbers we should skew at least 4% back toward McCain to balance the error in party affiliation.
At worst, McCuda are tied and probably up by 1-2%.
Operation chaos?
BTTT
When Rush had pubs registering as dems and voting in the dem primary to throw “chaos” into the system.
Everyone is assuming Obama’s massive turnout operation having a major impact. Certainly the black vote will be increased, if nothing else. What we don’t know is whether the Bradley effect will cost Obama 1 point or 5 points. We also don’t know how much of an effect Palin will have on Republican turnout. Keep in mind, Kerry thought he’d win on turnout in 2004 and he did actually get 8 million more votes than Gore in 2000. The problem was that Bush turned out 11.5 million more votes than in 2000. Palin’s rallies seem to be stoking the base much like Bush did in 2004. McCain’s campaign claims to have made more phone contacts than were made at a similar point in 2004 by the vaunted Bush/Rove machine. The fact that McCain and the RNC have saved a wad of cash for the stretch run could also be a huge variable. There is still plenty of time to drive up Obama’s negatives with ads and phone calls.
They are adding 5% fraud for the Dems. I believe John Fund said a few years ago that fraud for the Dems is around 4-5%. To win, Repubs have to overcome that.
No need for me to post my prepared comment; you nailed it in the very first response...
IMO the increaese in the black vote will be offset by the PUMA voters.
GOP identification is genuinely down, and here is why. Political figures and parties can become exhausted with the burdens of incumbency. So it is with the last years of the Bush administration. The GOP is fractured, weary, anxious, and angry because of too many lapses, too much deviation from conservative principles, and too much inarticulate bumbling. To a degree, McCain and Palin may be able to repair the damage to GOP identification, but at best it will be a close run thing.
I don’t think anyone knows for sure what’s going to happen... there are way to many variables... I think we’re behind 3-4 points....
I was talking to a coworker about this the other day. Between operation chaos and PUMAs on our side, and ACORN et al on the other, there’s no telling what the actual state of this election is.
“When Rush had pubs registering as dems and voting in the dem primary to throw “chaos” into the system.”
Sorry, I wasn’t clear at all. And I missed that you included Operation Chaos in your explaination. I do think that a significant number of Republicans registered as democrats as part of operation Chaos. Enough to impact registration statistics anyway.
Republicans who switched party to vote in primaries to keep the dhimmicrat chaos going. They are counted as dhimmicrats in the weighting.
Nah, more.
AOK.
This is great material. thanks for posting this.
It is a candid admission of the pathology surrounding polling.
It is not that difficult to understand that Operation Chaos switched the voter registrations of probably 5-7% of American voters. In order to vote against Hillary, they had to register as Democrats. Rasmussen and others are more than capable of understanding this or at least ignoring the Surge of Democrats in 2008.
This is important because go back and look at all the trend lines since August. Imagine if McCain and Palin had jumped out after the convention to more of a 15-20 point lead instead of a 10 point lead. What would the effect have been nationally? It would have turned the tide against he angry cynics clinging to Biden and Obama like guns and religion.
McCain and Palin have had their trend lines suppressed by pollsters dedicated to demoralizing the conservative base of this country. Consider that on October 5, independents were preferring the McCain Palin ticket by almost 10% according to Gallup. Now we are told that less than two weeks later the exact opposite is true and more than 10% greater favor Obama/Biden?
There needs to be some liability for these pollsters. They have incited a simmering insurrection in this country by refusing to be professionals.
They have gone right along with their journalistic brethren and said, ‘we don’t need to be professional in light of this ideological emergency.’
Its pathetic.
Possibly. But voters don’t reregister at the time they get angry with a party. They reregister when there is a primary election - as there was during the time the +9 jump in Democrat affiliation happened. That explains the big jump in party switches much better than a vague conspiracy theory.
The unprecedented item this year was simply the length and closeness of the Democratic primary contest, which was itself a result of the dems changing their primaries to proportional representation affairs in most states, rather than winner take all. That made it nearly impossible for one candidate to win early, going away. Since the republicans did not make that change, their primary was settled early. The only meaningful voice anyone had in the later primaries depended on asking for a democratic ballot.
In other words, people's eagerness to vote *against* Obama, even in another party, is the actual cause of the pollster's silly overweightings of his *support*.
Oh heck there is going to be a party on Nov 5!!!!!
Ping.
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