Posted on 10/09/2008 6:41:47 AM PDT by tatown
Thursday, October 09, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. The race remains quite stable--for the past fourteen days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day while McCain has been at 44% of 45% (see trends).
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Gallup is looking more and more strange, not only bucking the trend of the other 4 tracking polls, But WAY out there, more than 8 points more for Obama than the average of the other 4 "trackers." Not sure I've ever seen Rasmussen as such a radical outlier.
Lets face the facts. The race is going to tighten. Obama is not up double digits. If we are within the margin of error in two weeks, we are going to win.
what is exciting about this to me...
is that it includes an evening post debate. go figure-i thought mccain was pretty weak to be honest, esp the first 45 minutes
If you throw out Gallup and just go withthe other 4 tracking polls, it’s Obama by 3.25% with a trend toward McCain. At this point, those are not bad numbers.
October 5-11, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.3% Republican, and 27.4% unaffiliated.
wonder what the polls would show if they polled the bitter religion and gun clingers and the racists that would not vote for obama no way, no how? being sarcastic here
If the Odinga story truly has legs (and we’ll know Monday), Obama is going to have some serious trouble on his hands.
Internals are a bit strange.
To be within 5, McCain has to lead by 13 or 14% among white voters. But his lead with white women is only 48-47.
Which means he has to be up at least 60-35 with white men. No other polls show him up that much with white men, I think.
Either that or Rasmussen undersamples blacks/latinos in his likely voter model. In this election, they are going to show up.
Still has a +6 party ID for Democrats — too high. Without a breakdown by party, I have to guess, but to make his numbers fit without changing the internals too much from what ARG shows, I fudge the following breakdown:
Republicans: 88% McCain, 8% Obama, 4% Undecided
Democrats: 85% Obama, 10% McCain, 5% Undecided
Independents: 49% Obama, 42% McCain, 9% Undecided
Using the 2006 party ID weightings (favorable to Dems) of 35 R / 38 D / 27 I, I get a net result of Obama 47.9 to McCain 46.4
There are many latinos/african americans i know voting for McCain. They are pressured the other way but a lot but are voting for McCain. Granted this is unscientific but I see it a lot here. Also, his weighting is still off, 6% more dems is not accurate - so this is even closer than 5. Sorry ubaldie I know you wish it was otherwise.
Rasmussen is not factoring in MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD!!!
Vote early, and often.
start here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpvLV3d1Eq4
I wish I could start earlier but this weekend is packed. I’ll begin canvassing in Northern Virginia next weekend and will participate in the 72 hour program again somewhere.
AGREED. If after the debate numbers are completely in and the race still looks like this I’ll be satisfied
“Obama now leads by 13 points among women but trails by two among men. Among White Women, it’s McCain 48% Obama 47%. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Obama leads by seven.”
Ras is oversampling Dems by 6%. If McCain is losing independents by 7%, but only trailing by 5%, that tells you that Zero has not even locked up Dems.
Another issue I have with this poll is that Obama is up 13 among women, but McCain has a 1% edge on white women. Something about that stat alone doesn’t “jive”
They’re basing their weightings on the number of Democrats/Republicans registered to vote. As we are all painfully aware, the Democrats numbers and as much as 50% too high in bogus registrations (no voter to back it up) in some states. They are WAY over polling Dems. 37% Dem, 37% Rep was the turnout in ‘04. McCain wins by a landslide.
And Zogby has moved the other way (to +4 for Obama) so that puts both Rasmussen and Zogby in line today. I think both had a slight correction.
If we are within 4-5 points, that’s striking distance folks (especially with the Dem oversamples). And we still have 3 to make people uncomfortable with Obama.
Don’t get wobbly :)
At 37/37/26, my fudged model shows an exact tie at 47.2% each for McCain and Obama. (McCain's party loyalty advantage offset exactly by Obama's independent advantage)
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