Posted on 10/07/2008 11:05:01 AM PDT by Alter Kaker
Can John McCain possibly win this thing? Can he actually win in November?
The outlook is bleak: The polls are ugly, the Electoral College map is grim, the economy is getting worse, and McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin may have energized the Republican base, but it has appalled and frightened many outside it.
Still, McCain’s campaign has come back from the dead more than once. He survived his early support for immigration reform, he not only survived but has prospered from his support for the Iraq war surge, and he rebuilt a primary campaign that was in a state of near collapse to win the Republican nomination.
But can McCain do it again? Can he come back? And if so, how? What does he have to do between now and Election Day, and what does he have to do in Tuesday’s second presidential debate in Nashville?
In a column in mid-September, I assembled a panel of Democratic experts and asked them if Barack Obama could manage to lose. (General conclusion: Yes, but he probably won’t.)
Today, I have assembled a panel of Republican experts and asked them if McCain can manage to win.
Ken Duberstein was Ronald Reagan’s chief of staff from 1988 to 1989 and was deputy undersecretary of labor for Gerald Ford. Duberstein is very well-connected within the Republican Party.
“I think it is uphill for McCain, but a victory is doable,” Duberstein said. “He needs, obviously, to raise questions about Obama, but he also needs to reassure the American people — and not simply the base — that he has a plan to get us out of this economic mess and restore America’s stature throughout the world.
“He needs to spell out not why he is a maverick but what he will do to lead: What are the specifics? What is the strategy? He needs three yards and a cloud of dust, and not a Hail Mary strategy. He needs to do what John McCain does best, which is explain to the people where John McCain wants to take the country.
“There are a hundred lifetimes yet ahead in this campaign, starting with the debate Tuesday night. This is an election about big issues and big ideas, and this is not the time to play small ball. We are well past this stage. To many Americans, earmarks are a facial blemish. He has to talk about spending, not just earmarks, not just about a bridge to nowhere and about bears’ DNA.
“How is McCain going to oversee our financial institutions? How is he going to get unemployment down and jobs created? How is he going to find success in Iraq and progress in Afghanistan? How is he going to deal with big issues like nuclear proliferation? On Tuesday night, he has to demonstrate a broad vision, a big vision, and not just stuff that happens inside the Beltway.”
Greg Mueller was a senior adviser to Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes in their presidential campaigns and is an expert on conservative politics.
“McCain can definitely win the race,” Mueller said. “McCain needs to change the discussion back to a referendum on Obama. He needs to define Obama’s agenda as dangerous to America.
“It is dangerous to the economy. Obama is calling for higher taxes, historical spending and a huge increase in regulation that will hamper American business. Contrast that with McCain’s message of lower taxes and freezing spending. On foreign policy and national security, Obama is a risky bet in a hostile world.
“McCain needs to keep banging those themes over and over again, so on Election Day voters think Obama is just not ready for this. The McCain campaign needs to feed the doubt people have about Barack Obama. There is a lot of doubt out there. I don’t care what the polls say.
“The Supreme Court issue can be extremely powerful for McCain. Obama is basically for using the court for social engineering. This is key for Reagan Democrats in key swing states. Catholics respond very well to the Supreme Court issue. McCain and Palin have got to get on that.
“I think during the Tuesday night debate, McCain can do two things: One, McCain can’t be afraid to go right at Obama, define his economic policies as dangerous to our economy. Two, he has to talk about the Supreme Court. Obama will be the ultimate judicial activist advocate as president, using the courts for social engineering projects. Once the American people focus, McCain can win on this issue. It is an issue that attracts independent voters and Catholic Democrats.
“Every election goes in peaks and valleys in the polls. I am increasingly looking at the ground game. Hollywood stars are out there registering voters. The underlying problem of McCain’s campaign is grass-roots action and activity. My fear there is that Obama is ahead in that.”
Whit Ayres is a pollster and consultant who worked on Lamar Alexander’s 1996 presidential campaign and in numerous Senate and gubernatorial races. He is an expert on Southern politics.
“Anybody who is talking about a race being over a month out has not been participating in very many campaigns,” Ayres said. “Of course McCain can win it. Of course he can.
“He needs to broaden the discussion to dimensions that voters consistently see as relevant to their presidential choice. Voters vote on issues, particularly on the economy, but they also vote on character, leadership, values and ideology. And quite rightly so. A president for the next four years will be dealing with a whole host of issues beyond the economy, and how he deals with those issues is very relevant to the discussion.
“The Obama-Biden ticket is the most liberal ticket the Democrats have offered America since George McGovern in 1972. Barack Obama is far more liberal than most Americans. Moreover, a politician’s associations are a window into his values. If John McCain liked to hang around with the Ku Klux Klan, and if his church had given a lifetime achievement award to racist David Duke, all of us would consider those legitimate areas of inquiry.
“Debates can make a difference. They are not traditionally game-changers, but they can be very important events in the reframing of choices. The debates are an opportunity for McCain to reframe the choice in broader terms than just the economy: the Supreme Court, leadership, national security, values, ideology, culture.
“On leadership, values, culture and ideology, John McCain is far closer to most Americans than Barack Obama.
“The $64,000 question in this election is whether the number of new registrants — younger people and African-Americans — is greater, the same or less than blue-collar whites and white seniors who are not going to vote for Barack Obama. And we are not going to know the answer to that until Nov. 4.”
McCain will win.
McCain is GOOD at this...he’s going to pull it off and be the next POTUS.
I was going to say “you can take it to the bank”...but that might not be he best idea........
I have one.
How about draw the connection to the current economic issues and Obama’s connections with those involved, including ACORN.
Then, when Obama says, “...same old failed Bush economic policies...” McCain should look him straight in the eye, and ask, “Which of Bush’s economic policies caused the housing market bubble and eventual bust? Name them.”
it will be a narrow electoral college victory for McCain
and a real nail biter
very much like 2000
I’m like Mulder on X-Files, “I want to believe”. Hope Mac’s campaign reads this stuff, and that he starts getting specific on the economy. They’ve got it exactly right, I think...if he can lay out a plan that the average Joe Sixpack can wrap his brain around, he will win. This election is a test of true leadership - this is what leaders do. Keep Saracuda on the offense, but Mac has to step up and be Presidential, and offer leadership and real solutions.
“...I was going to say “you can take it to the bank”...but that might not be he best idea........”
LOL!
You can bury that in your back yard.
don’t believe the polls. the left wouldn’t be so desperate if they were really winning
It is not McCain’s to win. It is Obama’s to lose.
McCain can help him lose it by reinforcing people’s doubts
about Obama and by being a less risky alternative.
But it will turn on whether people think Obama is trustworthy.
John has to come out with guns blazing.
McCain will win
I pray HARD you are right!
Yeah, at one time I was hoping for a bigger McCain victory, although if he can pick up PA that will make me less tense. I still think he can hold most of the prior 04 Bush states, except for maybe Iowa and NM, and NM is very close.
Our action is required. In the words of St. Faustina - Take action first, if you can not take action, then use words. If you are not able to use words, then pray.
Each and everyone of us can do any of these three things. And most can do all three.
Be Not Afraid! God is in charge, but he needs our actions, words and prayers to help.
Obama didn’t know about Rev. Wright’s views
Obama didn’t know about Wm Ayers’ views
etc. etc. etc.
“Obama just doesn’t know enough to be President”
It is all about TRUST
WHO DO YOU TRUST?
America is having a trust crisis or a trust gap. It should bother people that Obama looks them right in the eye and tells them an obvious lie such as he didn’t know the nature of Rev. Wright’s beliefs. Who can REALLY believe that?
McCain was getting under Obama’s skin in the first debate. Everybody could see Obama was losing control.
McCain can ratchet it up and force Obama to blow it.
McCain was getting under Obama’s skin in the first debate. Everybody could see Obama was losing control.
McCain can ratchet it up and force Obama to blow it.
I agree he needs a real economic plan. Why hasn’t he presented one?
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