Survey USA: Obama Pulls Away in Virginia (O 53, M 43)

Political Wire ^ | 10-6-08 | Survey USA

[jveritas]

I got the numbers of the 2004 elections from an msnbc exit poll which is confirmed by the CNN exit poll you just posted.

[Perdogg]

good reference info.

[jveritas]

It put things in perspective. My 2008 election prediction model is based on the 2004 exit polls (the final and accurate ones) and I modified these data to fit the current situation.

[Perdogg]

ping me and keep me update when do these analysis.

[jveritas]

OK :)

[DemonDeac]

They should be taken with a grain of salt but there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that the race has taken a turn. There is a TON of time though for things to swing back.

[ScottinVA]

+10 Democrat sampling in VA? Then, no way. VA is about a 50-50 split.

[Wilder Effect]

The Suffolk poll was 46 to 31 D

This is why polling is outlawed in other countries.

[Wilder Effect]

2000 was worse.

Rasmussen +8 bush on final Tracker in 2000

[ScottinVA]

I was just going to mention that (the Suffolk 46-31 split). I don’t even know why RealClearPolitics even posts this one up there.

[ScottinVA]

I was just going to mention that (the Suffolk 46-31 split). I don’t know why RealClearPolitics even posts this one up there.

[Wilder Effect]

Because RCP is based in Chicago, and many they are Obamabots.

I live here, RCP is in Obama’s tank except for Jay Cost.

[TaxRelief]

When it makes no sense, it probably is tainted.

[Gopher Broke]

Survey USA polls are NOT as accurate because they use touch-tone polling...rather than a live calltaker.

[Alter Kaker]

Survey USA polls are NOT as accurate because they use touch-tone polling...rather than a live calltaker.

I didn't know that. Why does that make them less accurate?

Also, Suffolk has Obama +12 and CNN-Time has Obama +9 in Virginia. Are those polls similar?

There seems to be a wide discrepancy in the state depending on who is doing the poll. Mason Dixon and ARG both have McCain +3.

[LS]

So SurveyUSA has climbed into the Rasmussen “weighting” wagon. Sigh. And I considered them one of the more reliable pollsters out there.

[Gopher Broke]

Touch tone polls are done by recordings and do not have a human on the caller side...so your 4 year old could pick up the phone, answer the survey for Obama and it would count.

[Allegra]

...but again you cut and pasted it all over the place in 2006 and then you were SHOCKED...

Now listen, I did not ever post it in 2006. Not about the election. Not remotely. Not ever. You're thinking of someone else. Or making it up. And I'll post it all I want this year without your permission.

I had other battles against the doom-and-gloom drama queens going on in 2006 and I remember it quite clearly, thank you. And I was right in that battle.

I also never made any predictions about the election's outcome then, not have I made any now.

Don't put words in my mouth again and don't accuse me of not "doing something about it." If there's one thing I'm NOT, it's a slacker. You have no idea what my level of participation is, so stop your slander on my character.

I always thought you were a decent poster. I am very disappointed at your media-like revisionist history and your unsubstantiated accusations against me. It's pretty sad when you have to LIE to try to get a point across. I've had enough of that from the media to last me a lifetime.

And you want to tell me about my brother and sister FReepers?

I am "doing something about it," and I've got constraints that you don't have. What are you doing about it besides complaining?

[Allegra]

Dont forget there are a lot of obama trolls around...

Yes, I just found one and gave him the smackdown he was asking for.

[calex59]

If you believe this poll, or any poll for that matter, you have a problem with reality. Reality is that polls are biased and none of them, even the ones that show your candidate in the lead, should be taken seriously. A person has to go on common sense. For example, Palin draws record crowds, even the MSM has to admit that. The RNC has just set a record for donations. Women are flocking to McCain/Palin, many of them Hillary supporters. Males are heavinly in favor of McCain/Palin and even hispanics, because they hate blacks PC or not, are swinging to the republic ticket. Given all that, how in the he** are any of these outrageous polls, such as this one, even close to being true?

Stick to the facts, not polls, polls are not facts they are made to shape opinion not tell the truth. Kerry was ahead of Bush nationally in 2004 almost to election day, but he lost. McCain/Palin will win.