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Survey USA: Obama Pulls Away in Virginia (O 53, M 43)
Political Wire ^ | 10-6-08 | Survey USA

Posted on 10/06/2008 10:01:37 AM PDT by Alter Kaker

A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by ten points, 53% to 43%.

Since a similar poll conducted just after the Republican convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

Key finding: McCain no longer leads in any region of the state.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; mccain; obama; susa; swingstates; va2008; virginia
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To: Perdogg
I got the numbers of the 2004 elections from an msnbc exit poll which is confirmed by the CNN exit poll you just posted.
61 posted on 10/06/2008 10:45:43 AM PDT by jveritas (Use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
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To: jveritas

good reference info.


62 posted on 10/06/2008 10:46:29 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vice President Sarah H Palin - Make it happen !!!!)
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To: Perdogg
It put things in perspective. My 2008 election prediction model is based on the 2004 exit polls (the final and accurate ones) and I modified these data to fit the current situation.
63 posted on 10/06/2008 10:50:35 AM PDT by jveritas (Use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
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To: jveritas

ping me and keep me update when do these analysis.


64 posted on 10/06/2008 10:55:30 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vice President Sarah H Palin - Make it happen !!!!)
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To: Perdogg

OK :)


65 posted on 10/06/2008 10:58:07 AM PDT by jveritas (Use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
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To: TNCMAXQ

They should be taken with a grain of salt but there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that the race has taken a turn. There is a TON of time though for things to swing back.


66 posted on 10/06/2008 11:09:44 AM PDT by DemonDeac
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To: Wilder Effect

+10 Democrat sampling in VA? Then, no way. VA is about a 50-50 split.


67 posted on 10/06/2008 11:38:39 AM PDT by ScottinVA
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To: ScottinVA

The Suffolk poll was 46 to 31 D

This is why polling is outlawed in other countries.


68 posted on 10/06/2008 11:39:48 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: Chet 99

2000 was worse.

Rasmussen +8 bush on final Tracker in 2000


69 posted on 10/06/2008 11:41:03 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: Wilder Effect

I was just going to mention that (the Suffolk 46-31 split). I don’t even know why RealClearPolitics even posts this one up there.


70 posted on 10/06/2008 11:44:13 AM PDT by ScottinVA
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To: Wilder Effect

I was just going to mention that (the Suffolk 46-31 split). I don’t know why RealClearPolitics even posts this one up there.


71 posted on 10/06/2008 11:44:32 AM PDT by ScottinVA
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To: ScottinVA

Because RCP is based in Chicago, and many they are Obamabots.

I live here, RCP is in Obama’s tank except for Jay Cost.


72 posted on 10/06/2008 11:45:24 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: Alter Kaker

When it makes no sense, it probably is tainted.


73 posted on 10/06/2008 11:48:21 AM PDT by TaxRelief (Walmart: Keeping my family on-budget since 1993.)
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To: Alter Kaker

Survey USA polls are NOT as accurate because they use touch-tone polling...rather than a live calltaker.


74 posted on 10/06/2008 11:48:55 AM PDT by Gopher Broke (Check out a great Blog....http://roanokeconservative.blogspot.com/)
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To: Gopher Broke
Survey USA polls are NOT as accurate because they use touch-tone polling...rather than a live calltaker.

I didn't know that. Why does that make them less accurate?

Also, Suffolk has Obama +12 and CNN-Time has Obama +9 in Virginia. Are those polls similar?

There seems to be a wide discrepancy in the state depending on who is doing the poll. Mason Dixon and ARG both have McCain +3.

75 posted on 10/06/2008 11:53:53 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Perdogg

So SurveyUSA has climbed into the Rasmussen “weighting” wagon. Sigh. And I considered them one of the more reliable pollsters out there.


76 posted on 10/06/2008 11:57:35 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: Alter Kaker

Touch tone polls are done by recordings and do not have a human on the caller side...so your 4 year old could pick up the phone, answer the survey for Obama and it would count.


77 posted on 10/06/2008 11:58:15 AM PDT by Gopher Broke (Check out a great Blog....http://roanokeconservative.blogspot.com/)
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To: napscoordinator
...but again you cut and pasted it all over the place in 2006 and then you were SHOCKED...

Now listen, I did not ever post it in 2006. Not about the election. Not remotely. Not ever. You're thinking of someone else. Or making it up. And I'll post it all I want this year without your permission.

I had other battles against the doom-and-gloom drama queens going on in 2006 and I remember it quite clearly, thank you. And I was right in that battle.

I also never made any predictions about the election's outcome then, not have I made any now.

Don't put words in my mouth again and don't accuse me of not "doing something about it." If there's one thing I'm NOT, it's a slacker. You have no idea what my level of participation is, so stop your slander on my character.

I always thought you were a decent poster. I am very disappointed at your media-like revisionist history and your unsubstantiated accusations against me. It's pretty sad when you have to LIE to try to get a point across. I've had enough of that from the media to last me a lifetime.

And you want to tell me about my brother and sister FReepers?

I am "doing something about it," and I've got constraints that you don't have. What are you doing about it besides complaining?

78 posted on 10/06/2008 12:28:02 PM PDT by Allegra ( Go Sarah!)
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To: Texas4ever
Dont forget there are a lot of obama trolls around...

Yes, I just found one and gave him the smackdown he was asking for.

79 posted on 10/06/2008 12:30:03 PM PDT by Allegra ( Go Sarah!)
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To: Westbrook
If you believe this poll, or any poll for that matter, you have a problem with reality. Reality is that polls are biased and none of them, even the ones that show your candidate in the lead, should be taken seriously. A person has to go on common sense. For example, Palin draws record crowds, even the MSM has to admit that. The RNC has just set a record for donations. Women are flocking to McCain/Palin, many of them Hillary supporters. Males are heavinly in favor of McCain/Palin and even hispanics, because they hate blacks PC or not, are swinging to the republic ticket. Given all that, how in the he** are any of these outrageous polls, such as this one, even close to being true?

Stick to the facts, not polls, polls are not facts they are made to shape opinion not tell the truth. Kerry was ahead of Bush nationally in 2004 almost to election day, but he lost. McCain/Palin will win.

80 posted on 10/06/2008 12:36:06 PM PDT by calex59
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