Posted on 10/03/2008 3:00:14 PM PDT by mathprof
In the kitchens of the Associated Press, it's almost as if the wire service asked its chief cook -- er, pollster -- GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media, to do the following:
Of course we don't know if the differences between AP-CfK's Sept. 5-10 and Sept. 27-30 results were created deliberately, but the results sure look suspicious (both polls are available at PDF links found at AP-GfK's home page).
The more recent poll shows Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters, both with and without leaners; the earlier poll showed McCain with a 5-point lead with leaners, and 4 points without.
Almost all of this 12-point swing (11 points with leaners) is more than likely almost completely due to major differences between the two polls' samples:
"Somehow," the sample make-up changed from 33-31 Democrat to 40-29 Democrat from the earlier to the latter poll -- a shift of nine points.
"Somehow," the Strong-Dem vs. Strong-GOP difference went from nothing to eight points.
"Somehow," the Strong-GOP vs. Moderate-GOP mix went from +3 to -3, a swing of six points.
Here's my best estimate of how the Sept. 27-30 poll would have turned out if AP-GfK had used a sample similar to the one it used Sept. 5-10:
After correcting for differences in the samples, almost all of Obama's double-digit pickup disappears, leaving McCain with four- and three-point leads without and with leaners, respectively. Even if one argues that the first poll showed a too-small gap between the two parties in the number of people sampled, substituting the 5-point difference Gallup identified shortly after the GOP convention would still leave McCain with a slight lead.
Either AP isn't supervising its GfK cooks properly, or it's directing them to poison discussions of presidential race, while hoping that no one notices the rancid product it is clearly producing.
AP waitress -- er, reporter -- Liz Sidoti brought out the new poll's results for our consumption yesterday with this exultant intro:
Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.
Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets.
As you can see above, her celebration is founded on fabrication; thus, her "explanations" are deep-fried in deception.
Just because AP, GfK, and Sidoti are serving us this rotten recipe doesn't mean that readers have to swallow it. So don't.
Can anything he done to counter this?
vote, volunteer, give money, report voter fraud, etc
ping
Uh...Vote?
We can just hope voters don’t base their votes on these slanted polls. Americans are smarted than this...right?
Watch these bogus polls get a hell of a lot tighter the week before the election.
I’m shocked, SHOCKED that poll-cookin’ takes place in these media establishments.
Let me tell you, if McCain pulls this off amidst these same types of “numbers”, then this will be the political story of the generation. We all know that the media is in the tank for Obama, but, this would show a complete, conscious, and orchestrated effort to propagandize in an especially insisious way.
It will just set up the Republicans stole the election and everyone’s a racist mantra.
Yes! Most definitely! In the 2004 election the actual turnout was 37% Dems, 37% Reps. We need to show up in force come November 4, 2008.
According to their statement of methodology they did not norm for partisan advantage, so the change in R vs. D was was in the responses they received, not anything they did after those responses were received. That is SOP for most pollsters. Few weight for partisan advantage.
Obaaaahaaaaama!ObaaaahaaaammmmmA!Obamah Uber Alles!
Der fuhrer, der fuhrer
Der fuhrer Hoffnung und des Wandels
look...it would take just a few votes to swing some states....our Rat gov "won" by 123 votes after recounting three times....
a landslide is possible for bamey hussein....its equally possible for MAC AND SARAH to have a landslide.... take the usual states and add a penn or a minn or a wash. or even a wisconsin...
I'm believing that Mac and Sarah have the edge....
Truman was considered, by the press who despised him, as unable to ever win the election. These polls, etc are all designed by TODAY's media to convince YOU the VOTER on a reality that isn't REAL.
Even though Palin is only running for VP the folks are getting the same kind of energy hit from her as they did Harry Truman back then. I believe Truman upset Dewey in the 1948 Presidential election.
Truman had actually been President as he filled out FDR's term after FDR died in office in 1945. When he ran for a 2nd term in 1948 it was so slanted by the media toward Dewey that NO ONE gave Truman a whiskers chance of winning.
The VOTER SHOWED in 1948 that it was all HOT AIR.
I predict we will see the same in 2008.
This also happened to Reagan who showed many of the same attributes as Palin. He was able to transcend the media and spoke directly to the people.
She does the same.
Are you sure this wasn’t at a local UU, UCC or UM church basement?
Um, what about state-by-state polls?
...yes, long term the answer is to have more children and raise them to think of themselves as Americans.
What I want to know is why McCain went from a position of strength to a position of weakness in two weeks.
Actually, it's only in a few days -- just since the debate. The media realized that McCain impressed a lot of people, and looked Presidential, while Obama just sort of flailed around. They had to get busy planting articles critical of McCain (they knew the hyper-conservatives would swallow that bait, they always do), and propping up Obama. Their hired pollsters followed suit, either by changing their sampling or just plain making it up. There was absolutely no logical reason for McCain to lose support between Friday night's debate and Monday, when the "falling in the polls" stories began to come out.
This is the media. This is what they do. The Presidential election is one of their major advertising periods. They have to manipulate things so it's close until the end. They will print stories of the candidates rising and falling in their hired polls all the way until the last few days before the election, to keep the money rolling in.
Then, when every last dollar has been wrung from the election, they'll release their final polls, which will be as close to reality as they can get them, to keep their "reputations" secure.
The mainstream media is bleeding money. Political advertising is different from general advertising since the candidates usually must pay all money up front. Thus, political advertising gives them a cash infusion like nothing else, and they will keep it going as long as they can. Everytime they say Obama is fading, or McCain is fading, they are counting on the "fading" candidate to increase his advertising buys. They will slant their coverage toward this aim.
That is how things seem to suddenly change without reason in election campaigns. There is a reason, and it's money for the media and their pollsters. Pure and simple. Cash is king.
Journalists (sic) are not interested in the facts, and have not been for awhile. The new thing is “narrative”. They have a theme or story to push.
Polls are adjusted
Transcripts are changed
Creative editing is applied
Whatever it takes.
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