Posted on 10/01/2008 11:36:06 PM PDT by rumrunner
The New York Times fails to put the polling metrics on its website, but CBS News did.
Surprise, surprise. They sampled the following self-identified voters:
Republican: 362 out of 1257 respondents Democrat: 396 out of 1257 respondents Independents: 355 out of 1257 respondents
They "re-weighted" the sample for the "results" as follows:
Republicans:312 Democrats: 380 Independent:328
So apparently not satisfied with oversampling Democrats in the first instance, they re-weighted it to reflect even more Democrats.
For those wondering, in the 2004 election, Dems and Republicans were split at 37%, with indies making up about 26%.
So if the ol' gray nag is to be believed, Republicans will comprise only 25% of the voters come this November.
Wait, it gets better.
They did not provide the number of blacks or whites sampled. They did provide the percentage of only one racial subgroup, those pesky white people. Again, they did not say how many white people made up the sample, nor did they say how many black people made up the sample. And McCain wins white voters. He wins with the mean white guys by 53-37. And he wins white women 44-43.
They purposefully, intentionally and maliciously left out the number of blacks expressing their voting preferences, and their percentages.
There a lies, damned lies and stastics.
As a quiz, I ask you, if whites in 2004 made up 77% of the electorate, at what percentage does the New York Time/CBS News poll oversample blacks and/or hispanics when McCain wins this group 49%-40% yet is losing by 9% in this bogus, made up ficticios, scandalous poll put out by propagandists?
What I want to know is why McCain went from a position of strength to a position of weakness in two weeks.
Actually, it's only in a few days -- just since the debate. The media realized that McCain impressed a lot of people, and looked Presidential, while Obama just sort of flailed around. They had to get busy planting articles critical of McCain (they knew the hyper-conservatives would swallow that bait, they always do), and propping up Obama. Their hired pollsters followed suit, either by changing their sampling or just plain making it up. There was absolutely no logical reason for McCain to lose support between Friday night's debate and Monday, when the "falling in the polls" stories began to come out.
This is the media. This is what they do. The Presidential election is one of their major advertising periods. They have to manipulate things so it's close until the end. They will print stories of the candidates rising and falling in their hired polls all the way until the last few days before the election, to keep the money rolling in.
Then, when every last dollar has been wrung from the election, they'll release their final polls, which will be as close to reality as they can get them, to keep their "reputations" secure.
The mainstream media is bleeding money. Political advertising is different from general advertising since the candidates usually must pay all money up front. Thus, political advertising gives them a cash infusion like nothing else, and they will keep it going as long as they can. Everytime they say Obama is fading, or McCain is fading, they are counting on the "fading" candidate to increase his advertising buys. They will slant their coverage toward this aim.
That is how things seem to suddenly change without reason in election campaigns. There is a reason, and it's money for the media and their pollsters. Pure and simple.
Great post rr, it’s all about the method behind the madness.
What’s a stastic?
Don't expect any less from the ENEMEDIA!
When I was in college one of my only conservative professors was my statistics teacher. She was a Texan and totally out of place in liberal Oregon. We all loved her. She was an excellent teacher. The most fun I have ever had doing math in my entire life.
She was big on ethics in statistics and told all of us that the book “How to Lie with Statistics” should be required reading for anyone who wants to go through life without being fooled every day by statistics. Look it up, it was written in the 1950s and the principles are even more relevant in today’s information age.
Whether we want The Black Racist and his thugs or not, it makes no difference.
B. Hussein Obama and his NYT/CBS agents are a cut from the same cloth as Kim Jung Il and his communist lackeys.
They are all evil and hatred personified, and they will stop at nothing in order to gain a totalitarian grip on our lives.
God help us all if McCain blows it.
This is true for all the bs polls (read: non-gallup, non-ramussen, and non-battleground).
The internals on every single poll from the MSM have been a mess and they continue to go by RV instead of LV even though they were using LV at this stage of the game in 2004.
There are also a bunch of new polling sites that are from untested people. Nate Silver of 538.com (a favorite of libs) was whining about how BG “overweighed” the elderly using a BS argument about RV’s.
McCain has been flailing but Obama has stayed at a ceiling of around 50 in most national polls which means he tops out around 46 with LV.
McCain needs to stop with the bipartisan BS. Being bipartisan means that Obama and the MSM get to attack McCain while he smiles and takes it like a fool.
YES! You have nailed it!
And it is precisely why I do not have cable television or subscribe to any newspaper. When I do listen to Sean Hannity or Mark Levin on the ABC affiliate here in San Diego, I sometimes turn down the volume when the news breaks come on at the top and bottom of the hour; the ABC radio anchor can sometimes come off rather snarky and smug, especially when anything positive about Obama is announced.
Great observation and great post.
The Quinipiac College poll that AP/Yahoo! said that OBAMA GAINS, McCAIN SLIPS over the weekend was of 448 UNIDENTIFIED voters.
The MSM knows the average person in the US loves the Yankees (now Red Sox), Cowboys, Lakers for one reason. They win, and bandwagoning a winner, even as a casual fan, makes people feel like Kobe or Derek Jeter are “their guys”.
The MSM does some very shrewd psychology on the unsuspecting public...the appeal to many people’s sense of identity and if they feel as if they are part of something, supprting a “winner” then they feel as if they helped.
I can honestly say I think many lonely people will vote for Obama not because they like Marxism/Euro-Socialism, they want to say they were BIG enough to vote for a black man and supported the WINNER.
I hate the MSM, I really, really do.
I must disagree regarding the motives of the MSM, rumrunner. If their motives were mainly financial, they would’ve started eliminating bias long ago, eliminating or at least curtailing a practice that they know to be offensive to about half their customer base, yet they don’t. In fact, they’ve grown immeasurably more biased over the past six months.
The very top players may care about money, but the rank and file of the MSM are motivated by the black, rotten, cankerous pus that infects their souls and drives their very lives: liberalism.
MM
“Republican: 362 out of 1257 respondents Democrat: 396 out of 1257 respondents Independents: 355 out of 1257 respondents”
So if my math is right, before all the monkey business the raw data says...
28.79 Republican
31.50 Democrat
28.24 Independents
Just polling people out of the blue that is what they got????
Only 2.71 percent difference between democrats and republicans?
11.47% are ?????? What? Green party? libertarian?
I look at my miserable Liberal neighbor that told me everyone should make atleast $20.00 per hour to have a chance.
I just told him that why not nationalize everything and let everyone pay 80% to learn more about Liberalism and have crappy health care? If the profit motive leaves, the world becomes one large DMV...but Liberals see the world as a place where no terrorists mean death and everyone who holds a gun at their temple in a robbery needs a second chance...
We rarely speak and I have seen the Obama sticker enter his bumper.
But this time watchout - the MSM will continue their BS polls right to the election and then when McCain wins they will blame a “Bradly Effect” and racism.
Please keep this in mind and make sure you cast your vote no matter what BS polls the MSM are peddling.
Easy. The 11.47% are illegals, ACORN, multiple instance voters and deceased voters to be named later.
Have you heard about what Obama’s doing in Ohio and other states? Rounding up homeless people, registering them and having them vote right on the spot?
What do you think of that?
Is anyone monitoring it for fraud?
Damn good analysis. The MSM did not want the post-debate focus to be on how weak Barak "I have a braclet too" Obaba's performance was.
You also make an excellent point about the media pushing polls to drive candidate spending. It points to another scandal but one that will never be covered by the old media.
| The New York Times and CBS use a special kind of statistic called a 'stastic' which is a term that arises from a new discipline called 'spastistics.' The usual statistics are transformed into stastics by using a special procedure called 'flatulation' which is understood only by experts in spastistical analysis. |
 Stastics are converted into chemical form and poured into the turbo encabulator. |
Okay...what in the he_ _ is going on with the teacher’s head?
It’s just exactly like a spastic. You know, the people who work in the msm.
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