Posted on 09/12/2008 9:49:34 AM PDT by flyfree
Clickable map at link
(Excerpt) Read more at electoral-vote.com ...
Do these guys have a good track record?
That website has been scaring and depressing me for *weeks*!
That is just *beautiful* to finally see!
Thank God!
Congressional numbers look pretty dismal.
McCain/Palin take PA. Game over.
They are an poll aggregator (like Real Clear Politics).
Here is the exact algorithm:
The most recent poll in every state is always used.
If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts.
If one or more polls were taken within a week of the most recent, all of them are averaged, weighted equally.
This algorithm smoothes out fluctations better and produces fewer wild swings and gives a better overall result. You can see which polls were used by putting the mouse on a state. The Source field tells which polls are used and gives the final date of the final poll used. If multiple polls were used, the first five characters of each pollster are listed and the pollsters are separated by a “+” sign.
A consequence of this new algorithm is that in the “News from the Votemaster” section, a new poll may be reported but the map gives a different result. This effect is always due to multiple recent polls being averaged. You will see that this is the case by looking for the “+” sign used to separate multiple pollsters in the Source field of the pop-up box. Another consequence of this algorithm, is that this site may give slightly different results from other polling sites, each of which uses its own algorithm, sometimes a far more complex one.
Why a look-back window of 1 week? It is admittedly arbitrary. If the window is too short, the results gyrate wildly as different polls use different methodologies . If the window is too long, genuine shifts in public opinion take too long to show up. The choice of 1 week is based on my now-extensive experience with examining polling data. Public reaction to news events often takes several days to take effect as people often change their opinions after talking to friends, coworkers, and relatives.
It is worth emphasizing that the margin of error in most state polls is at least 3% for each candidate. Thus if a poll says Smith is beating Jones 52% to 48%, Smith might be as low as 49% and Jones might be as high as 51%. When the difference between two candidates is less than 2x the margin of error, the race is a statistical tie. On the map, the states with a white center are those where the candidates differ by less than 5% and are certainly statistical ties. Even some of the ones in the solid light color may technically be statistical ties, but a lead of 5% or more most likely means the candidate is actually ahead.
BTTT
I have followed that site the last 2 elections. It is rabidly left, but reasonably accurate. It does trend towards dims, and this is a great thing to see.
Nice! Lefty site has McCain winning. I’m nervous though.... One slip up, miscalculation, voter fraud or a great ground game by Obama on 1 or 2 states and we could be done!!!
Ahhhh.... We need PA or MI.
Take CO, and put it in McCain’s column too, I think he’ll win CO, because of the demographics.
As things stand now, I’d say McCain/Palin have varying shots at the following blue states (in my order of expected likelihood) on this map : CO, WI, NH, PA, MI, MN, WA, IA. Total of 89 electoral votes.
I’d say the Obamessiah/Biden ticket has varying shots at the following red states (in my order of expected likelihood) on this map: NM, NV, VA, OH and a distant shot at FL. Total of 70 electoral votes.
Yes, Obama’s in striking distance in the FL polls, but he’s spent $5 million on ads, while McCain hasn’t spent a penny yet.
Ping to my #12
Thanks y’all.
Exactly.
There needs to be a campaign push with an ad: Photos of Reid and Polosi -
Help us give these two a pink slip. Vote the straight ticket
Did anyone read on down that site and see the dirty tricks in Ohio part? The Democrats are doing in Ohio what Obama did in Illinois. This is a really dirty election...a total disgrace. The Democrat Sec’t of State in Ohio threw out 750 mail in ballots due to a narrow interpretation of the law.
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080911/NEWS0108/309110032/
Don't underestimate "Fast Eddie" Rendell. Break a few legs here, "register" ten thousand dead voters there, and Barack's right back in old ball game.
You must be a fun guy to hang out with. I couldn't find the "Congressional numbers" at Electoral-vote.com. Maybe "Congressional numbers look pretty dismal," is a catch phrase you use regardless of its pertinence.
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