Posted on 09/09/2008 1:39:17 AM PDT by tomymind
How do things look now?
Obama - 273, McCain - 265
So where does the race stand now? We've seen a lot happen in the past 30 days. Obama picked Joe Biden as his VP, we got a pretty successful Democratic convention, McCain picked Sarah Palin as his VP, and we got a pretty successful Republican convention. The end result of everything, at this point, seems to be a slight boost for McCain nationally. However, all polling done in swing states since the end of the conventions indicates that the race remains basically the same.
I'm also going to go ahead and take two states out of play in terms of battlegrounds. With the Palin pick, Alaska is now probably safe for McCain. Georgia also seems pretty safe for McCain.
As you can see from my updated map, I'm now predicting a narrow Obama victory over McCain, 273 to 265, if the race was held today. It's important to remember that these polls, and my resulting electoral map, are done in the midst of McCain's convention bounce which could fade by next week.
* Ohio: The only poll out of Ohio post-convention is a Rasmussen poll that has McCain up 7%. Ohio is looking fairly good for McCain at this point. He is probably stronger in the state now due to the Palin-sparked Evangelical base in Ohio.
* Indiana: A post-convention poll from Howey-Gauge has McCain up 2%, confirming that the race remains close even after the Republican convention. The fact that Obama is not only spending money on TV ads here but also actively campaigning in the state (he was there this week) tells us that Obama's internal polling shows the state as competitive. I'm keeping it in the McCain column for now though.
* Michigan: A post-convention poll from Public Policy has Obama up 1% over McCain. The fact that McCain has not pulled a lead in the state even during his post-convention bounce is probably a good sign for Obama.
* Pennsylvania: A post-convention poll from Rasmussen has Obama up 2%. Again, if McCain can't pull a lead in the state right now, while his convention bounce is still kicking, it indicates that the state leans to the left.
* Florida: A post-convention poll from Rasmussen has Obama and McCain tied. McCain continues to be unable to build any sort of lead in a state most figured he'd be able to win fairly easily. Florida is a key state. If Obama wins Florida, he could lose Michigan AND New Hampshire and still win the race by just holding on to his safe states. I'm keeping it in the McCain column for now but I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama further improve in the state as McCain's bounce fades a bit. Florida is a state where Biden may be helping Obama, as Biden is very popular with senior Democrats and Florida has a lot. Also, there are a lot of reports about the very large Jewish community in Florida being concerned with the Palin pick due to her ties with some questionable groups (to Jews) like Jews for Jesus and the Buchanan campaign of 2000. McCain will probably not win the election if he loses Florida.
* Colorado: A post-convention poll from Rasmussen actually has Obama increasing his lead to 3%.
* Virginia: Two post-convention polls seem to agree on a narrow McCain lead. Rasmussen has McCain up 2% and SurveyUSA also has McCain up 2%. This is a state where Obama could overperform due to heavy African American turnout, but for now, we'll keep it in the McCain column.
None of the other swing state polls have complete post-convention polls. However, CNN had Obama up 15% in Iowa a few days ago (after the Palin pick) and there is no real sign yet that New Mexico has fallen into play. Same for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, three blue states that McCain is still attempting to get back in play. We also don't have post-convention polls from Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina yet. Nevada is a state to watch as it seemed to be shifting from lean McCain to lean Obama, probably due to how successful the Obama voter registration drives have been in the state and due to Obama hammering home the Yucca Mountain issue which is big in the state and which McCain is on the wrong side of.
And I'm going to provide this reminder in every one of these updates from now until election day: pay attention to the ground game! Bush won in 2004 because of a superior ground game. This year, Obama's ground game dwarfs McCain's. McCain's will get better now because he has an energized Evangelical community ready to work for Palin, but he won't be able to catch up completely in that area. There are also other wildcards. Will the Evangelical community turnout in larger numbers than pollsters expect? That would help McCain. Will the African American community, and young people, turnout in larger numbers than pollsters expect? That would help Obama. Getting these people to the polls relies on Get Out The Vote operations, and again, Obama has the advantage there. It's something to keep in mind when looking at a lot of these very close swing states like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, etc.
I'll be doing these weekly from now on as changes will be happening constantly.
Nevada is a state to watch as it seemed to be shifting from lean McCain to lean Obama, probably due to how successful the Obama voter registration drives have been in the state and due to Obama hammering home the Yucca Mountain issue which is big in the state and which McCain is on the wrong side of.
McCain should visit Nevada more often! I still can't figure out how Obama can win in Nevada. What's Yucca Mountain issue?
why do you bring this discouraging crap here?......to rain on our parade?
welcome to FR
Quiet yourself, ok?
Yawn. Anyone with at least one brain cell firing knows these polls, or election maps mean nothing until after the debates are all over with, even then they mean precious little.
FR is full of polls reported.
Mcain will win Ohio, Florida, Virginia And Missouri. He will get the Solid South and New Hampshire. He will get West Virginia. Iowa could be a problem. And New Mexico.
That doesn’t mean they are worth anything. Im not getting on you, post away. In the long run you will see they mean nothing in this election.
He’ll get Colorado, too. That alone flips this bozo’s dubious math in McCain’s direction.
Who the hell is “Ashish”, anyway?
What the hell is “411mania.com” anyway?
“Pop culture since ‘96” my ass.
What the hell is 411 Mania???
>> What the hell is 411 Mania???
Loser site. Popup carrier.
Amish are the people who still hav horse and buggy on the highway. They also pay no income tax and do not use electricity. Good people. Very honest.
Not “Amish”.
“Ashish”.
Scary.
If you don't know what Yucca Mountain is about, I question your authenticity.
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Ashish. That is what the OObamans smoke without the H.
What?
Buzz off, newbie troll.
Are you saying Oossein smokes Ashish? :-)
Explains a lot!
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