Posted on 09/03/2008 8:00:56 AM PDT by Alter Kaker
ST. PAUL, Minn. — Since John McCain announced Friday that first-term Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would be his running mate, Democrats have been quick to point out that the 44-year-old governor could soon be just “a heartbeat away from the presidency.” The veiled reference to McCain’s advanced age is hard to miss.
It’s a macabre point to raise on the night when Palin will speak to the convention here — but a look at the actuarial tables insurance companies use to evaluate customers shows that it’s not an irrelevant one. According to these statistics, there is a roughly 1 in 3 chance that a 72-year-old man will not reach the age of 80, which is how old McCain would be at the end of a second presidential term. And that doesn’t factor in individual medical history, such as McCain’s battles with potentially lethal skin cancer.
“For a man, that’s above the expected lifetime at the present,” said Michael Powers, a professor of risk management and insurance at Temple University’s Fox School of Business.
The odds of a 72-year-old man living four more years, or one full White House term, are better. But for a man who has lived 72 years and 67 days (McCain’s age on Election Day this year), there is between a 14.2 and 15.1 percent chance of dying before Inauguration Day 2013, according to the Social Security Administration’s 2004 actuarial tables and the authoritative 2001 mortality statistics assembled by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
Going by the Social Security Administration’s tables, that’s nearly ten times the likelihood that a man aged 47 years and 92 days (Barack Obama’s age on Election Day this year) will die before Jan. 20, 2013.
Using the NAIC tables instead, which factor in the fact that Obama has been a smoker for most of his adult life, a non-smoker McCain’s age is still six times as likely to die in the next four years as a smoker Obama’s age.
Actuaries are quick to point out that mortality statistics describe broad population trends. They insist the models can’t necessarily be applied to individual people.
“Actuarial models are good for estimating the average future lifetime of, say, 100,000 50-year-olds, or how many out of 100,000 50-year-olds will survive to 60, but are lousy at estimating about one particular 50-year-old,” explained Jim Daniel, a professor of actuarial studies at the University of Texas.
The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.
Jack Luff, an actuary with the Society of Actuaries, also notes that the NAIC statistics are slightly weighted toward a higher probability of death.
“The [Commissioners Standard Ordinary] table is directed at life insurance and does have a margin in it with respect to extra deaths for financial reporting purposes,” said Luff.
The same calculations made by utilizing an annuity table, which is used for the purposes of disbursing pensions and tends to predict slightly greater longevity, suggest that a man McCain’s age has a marginally reduced one in ten chance of not reaching age 76.
Still, the quarter-century age gap between Obama and McCain is the widest ever between major-party presidential candidates. And no matter what table is applied, the difference in average mortality rates of men McCain’s age and men Obama’s age is enormous.
According to the Social Security Administration, there is a roughly 1.6 percent chance that a man Obama’s age would die before completing one term in the White House. Even factoring in Obama’s cigarette usage, there is, on average, still only a 2.4 percent chance of death between Election Day this year and Jan. 20, 2013, according to the NAIC.
And since the actuarial risks of cigarette smoking are believed to wear off over time and Obama has not suffered from lung cancer in the past, the Democrat’s long-term odds could be closer to those of a non-smoker, according to several actuaries.
Powers observed that these statistics would be incomplete without factoring in the two men’s full medical histories, adding: “McCain’s expected age of death is probably higher than Obama’s because he’s already lived to the age of 72.”
But for voters, the most important question is how well the candidates are likely to fare during one or two terms in office. With Obama and McCain, it’s not clear that factoring in outside medical information would make the comparison any more flattering to the presumptive Republican nominee.
“It’s not just a matter of McCain being age 72,” said Lois Horwitz of Boston University’s department of mathematics and statistics. “It has to do with, of course, the underwriting characteristics of their lives.”
Actuaries say different insurance companies might factor in McCain’s history of cancer differently, but that in any case it probably wouldn’t help the Republican candidate’s odds.
“If they have a known condition they’re going to be looked at very carefully,” Luff explained. With melanoma, he said, “they’d probably look for five years with no recurrence.”
“My understanding is that with even the worst forms of skin cancer, if they’re caught early the lethality is not that great,” said Powers, who added: “The risk associated with that lesion would probably have more to do with the probability of having future lesions.”
Plus, Powers noted, serving four or eight years in the White House could wear down the presidential candidates even beyond what actuarial statistics would predict.
“Probably, there is a substantial effect associated with being in an office like the presidency,” said Powers. “I think people do believe it tends to age you rather quickly.”
McCain has acknowledged in the past that his advanced age would be a factor in the presidential campaign, particularly when it came to choosing a running mate.
In April, the Arizona senator told radio host Don Imus: “I’m aware of [the] enhanced importance of this issue given my age.”
As early as 2007 there was speculation that McCain might pledge to serve just one term, in light of his advanced years. McCain ruled out that possibility in an Aug. 20 interview with Politico, saying simply: “I’m not considering it.”
The McCain campaign has pushed back hard on any traces of ageism coming from the candidate’s critics, accusing Obama of age discrimination in May when the Illinois senator responded to a McCain statement by saying the Republican was “losing his bearings.”
During the Republican primaries, actor Chuck Norris also cited McCain’s age as a factor in his own decision to support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
“That’s why I didn’t pick John to support, because I’m just afraid the vice president will wind up taking over his job within that four-year presidency,” Norris explained in January.
liberals are experts of hypocrisy, pretending to be pioneers of change while resenting any change they have not initiated.
They are masters of whining, crying foul at every defeat while excusing any corruption or dirty tactics that benefit their cause.
The feminist Left is outraged with the Palin choice because they vegetate under the sad illusion that they alone hold the exclusive right to represent American women.
Whats an alter kaker like you, posting an article like this ?
“...Democrats have been quick to point out that the 44-year-old governor could soon be just “a heartbeat away from the presidency.”
Yet, they are willing to put a man with far LESS executive experience INTO the presidency.
It surprises me NOT that the left doesn’t get this odd idea.
Let’s not forget his mother is 96.
Struggling with my own mortality. :-)
projectile vomit alert
Is there any kind of -ism a Democrat won’t support?
Racism
Sexism
Ageism
Elitism
The beauty of Sarah Palin is that, once and for all, it’s clear that with the Democrats, the emperor has no clothes.
McCain’s mother appeared to have a lot more life in her than most of the MSM pundit-resses. In any case, the MSM’s gotta got in what licks they can before Sarah blows them outta the water tonight.
While Norris had a point back in January, now that we know who McCain's VP would be, that changes the significance of this morbid consideration. I'd rather not lose any sitting president, but it's nice to know that McCain chose someone more qualified based on her experience and performance than McCain himself, Biden, or certainly Obama.
Sarah Palin has the experience to be among the best presdients in our history, based on a comparison with successful presidents. Four presidents generally ranked in the top fifteen by historians have had experience comparable to Governor Palin’s prior to assuming office: Franklin Roosevelt, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Grover Cleveland.
Sarah Palin spent four years as a City Council Member for Wasilla, Alaska, six years as Mayor of Wasilla, and two years as Governor of Alaska.
FDR spent just over two years in the New York State Senate, eight years as Assistant Secretary of the Navy, and four years as Governor of New York.
Theodore Roosevelt three years in the New York State Assembly, two years as Governor of New York, one year as Assistant Secretary of the Navy, and less than one year as Vice President of the United States.
Woodrow Wilson spent eight years as President of Princeton University and two years as Governor of New Jersey.
Grover Cleveland spent two years as Sheriff of Erie County, two years as Mayor of Buffalo, and two years as Governor of New York.
Overall, I’d say that Palin’s background is comparable with that of several presidents considered highly successful, even considering that her state has a smaller population than the other two states on the list.
While Obama has been running for office for as long as Palin has been running a state, I find it hard to consider the two tasks as comparable preparation.
One final note: I will be posting this multiple times because I think it is important to get the word out that that her experience is in keeping with previous presidents. I apologize to those who are annoyed by seeing it too often.
Where’s the article about the heavy smoker, black man in his mid-forty’s, in a high stress game? A cardiac waiting to happen? Or about the aging running mate with a history of aneurisms (ticking time bomb). If this unhealthy duo were elected, Nancy Pelosi would be polishing her scepter. There’s an article for you.
I understand that statistics have their purpose. This stuff is on the level of gazing into a crystal ball. My father is 81 and could pass for 60. I have friends who died when they were about Obama’s age. Applying actuarial tables to try to predict what is likely to happen to any given individual is nonsense.
And he was shot to boot. Yet he lived well past his second term.
McCain's mom is 97 and McCain's physical toughness is a matter of public record.
Paul Tsongas was progressive Harvard grad only two years older than Barack Obama when he won the Democrat primary in New Hampshire.
He was dead at 55.
McCain is six years past his last cancerous lesion. You'd think the article would mention this.
Oh, right, he's the GOP candidate.
I remember the same discussion about Reagan’s age. Just short of 70 Years old by days when he was sworn in IIRC, and almost 78 at the end of his EIGHT years as President.
And I might add, cocaine abuse results in early heart disease and brain injury, e.g., Parkinsons Disease.
More lying media spin. The point is what is his risk during the next eight years. He just stopped smoking (if you believe him). Were he elected, his smoking-related risk factors will not be gone while he is in office.
Ten, fifteen years from now, his risks would be dramatically reduced, but not in the immediate future.
I JUST MAILED ANDEW BURNS AND HERE IS WHAT I WROTE
I have to tell you, with these kind of disgraceful smears, there is less than 1 chance of 3 that you will survive your next visit to your granny.
HERE IS THE ANSWER I GOT FROM BURNS
Good one.
I think Obama is NOT as smart as the MSM would have us believe!
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