Could Obama still lose the nomination? (Maybe!)

American Thinker ^ | August 07, 2008 | Denis Keohane

[neverdem]

Will Hillary outsmart Obama and take the nomination at the last minute?

Many of us familiar with Hillary Clinton's approach to achieving her goals refused to believe that she ever gave up all hope of winning the nomination and the presidency. Her words and actions on the subject of the convention itself always left the door open for a return, should Obama falter or suffer some calamity. 

Her artful evasions were enough to lull journalists and (more importantly) Obama and his supporters into the presumption of inevitability. No further rumblings of a mass protest in Denver should the first black candidate be denied his rightful due were heard. After all, he received enough publicly expressed support from super delegates to put him over the top. And he won the popular vote in the primaries, we were assured, lending legitimacy to the super delegates who voiced their support.

Everyone presumed the presumptive nominee was a lock.

Now there are a few signs that Hillary may be making her move.

 - Blogger Patterico alludes to the Hillary Clinton campaign burning up the phone lines to the super delegates.

 - Bill Clinton told ABC News, "I am not a racist" and contended the race card was played against him. Even when prompted in the same interview to state that Obama was ready for the Presidency, he did not deliver.

 - Hillary's PUMA ( short for "Party Unity My A--.") supporters in Denver and nationally plan a rally at a Denver park during the convention.

 - ABC news reported yesterday that Hillary Clinton does not rule out putting her name in nomination,contradicting earlier press reports.

Many people, including no doubt a goodly number of nervous Democrat super delegates, are asking themselves the David Brooks' question about Obama's standing in the polls: "Where's the landslide  ?" After evaluating him for several months, voters in the middle still aren't ready to embrace him.

National polls show not only a tightening of the Obama-McCain race to a statistical dead heat but momentum toward a McCain lead, something inconceivable only weeks ago. The specter of an Obama collapse has to haunt more than a few super delegates.

Buyer's remorse seemed evident and growing among many Democrats toward the end of their primary season when Obama lost again and again to Clinton, even as the delegate math was by then stacked in his favor. That remorse was put on hold (but apparently not resolved) by Obama's seeming to secure the nomination and the subsequent popular boost he enjoyed at first. But lately the candidate with a difference has had a hard time living up to his promise to be a new kind of politician.

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has 1766.5 pledged delegates, 352 short of the 2118 needed to secure the nomination. He also has 463 super delegates, which puts him over the top -- if they hold. If a combination of Clinton campaigning and nervousness can cause a hundred and twenty or so super delegates to sit out the first ballot, Obama does not get the nomination on the first ballot and perhaps not at all. After that first vote a great many pledged delegates and all the super delegates are free to vote as they choose.

How much pressure could there then be for the forty-seven year old Obama to take the VP spot under Hillary, with the understanding that he would as such be the next Democrat in line for the top nomination whether Hillary won or lost, served one, two or no terms?

It looks like Obama's belief in his inevitability may have led him into a blunder, making it easier for Hillary supporters to prevent a nomination on the first ballot. After that point, anything goes, as all super delegates and many pledged delegates are free to vote their preferences.

After accepting the party's decision last June to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida but with half votes, only days ago Obama said he wanted the delegates to have full votes

Obviously, he said this believing he has won the nomination and that pandering to voters in critical general election states is of more importance.

If the party goes along with Obama's request, it reduces the number of super delegates who would need to sit out the first ballot for Obama to be denied the nomination, opening the way for Clinton! Ouch!

This is proof that the man should not be negotiating with Ahmadinejad. If he cannot think strategically and recognize his vulnerability to a last minute ambush at the convention, he would be eaten alive in big league world affairs.

Worst of all, in his letter to the Credentials Committee arguing in favor of full votes for the two delegations, he writes:

Democrats in Florida and Michigan must know that they are full partners and colleagues in our historic mission to reshape Washington and lead our country in a new direction.

These words tacitly argue for acceptance of the popular vote results in those states. Obama cannot see one step ahead, for adding them to the vote count would give the Democratic primary season popular vote majority to Hillary.

There are about three weeks to the delegate voting. Things can still happen or even, as sometimes suspected with the Clintons, be made to happen.

[HAL9000]

As far as Hillary is concerned, it’s over. She knows it. Some of her misguided followers don’t get it yet.

[Anti-Bubba182]

If Obama is denied the nomination, his supporters will erupt!
The party will be damaged severely. It is a neat scenario but I doubt it happens.

[Mongeaux]

Beat them by two days:

[MARTIAL MONK]

Duncan Hunter is fixin’ to surge!

[MarineBrat]

[HAL9000]

Obama has the nomination locked up. The question is whether he will get nomination "by acclaimation", designed to look like party unity. Hillary will get something in return from Obama for playing her role in the spectacle. John Edwards is in no position to bargain.

Personally, I'm hoping for another balloon-drop disaster.

[Anti-Bubba182]

I hope they go at each other with Chain Saws! The more chaos the better.

[HAL9000]

They will be going at it with chainsaws out in the streets, but not in the convention center. Those days are over. The Democratic National Convention is going to be a fashion show.

[goldstategop]

Hillary can convince the Democratic super-delegates that Obama doesn't have the arugula to win in November.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Lancey Howard]

I've been pretty much ignoring the subject, but I am finally wondering if maybe that scumbag Obama was born overseas and is NOT a natural born citizen and therefore not Constitutionally eligible to be President.

Did you notice Bill Clinton's phrasing in his recent interview?

Asked the question again, he (Clinton) responded: "I never said he (Obama) wasn't qualified. The constitution sets qualification for the president. And then the people decide who they think would be the better president."

Odd that he brought up constitutional qualification. That got my spidey sense tingling.

[Drumbo]

*ping*

[Impy]

“Outsmart”? Like use fuzzy math to make her (smaller) # of delegates seem like more than they are?

Yes she will. Then L. Ron Hubbard will return and lead us to our new home in the stars.

[bdfromlv]

There are a lot of forged birth documents being presented on the net by obamabots, but who verified his eligibility for the job. We do know that he would not have passed a government security check of any kind if he wasn't an elected official with his associations and background.

[CaliGirl-R]

I don’t know if you’ve seen this site.

http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/

They’ve done exhaustive research and the conclusion was obama’s released b.c was a fraud.

That comment Bill made, in my opinion, was said on purpose because of all the research going on. Something’s up.

[Son House]

[DeaconRed]

I have said all along. She went way to easy.
The KLINTOONS are sneaky snakes and something is up.

I had to add NO "BEAST" TO ME TAG LINE! ! ! ! ! !

[freema]

check this out
http://www.wnct.com/nct/special_sections/just_delete_it/article/just_delete_it/15829/

[2ndDivisionVet]

Hillary Clinton Supporters For John McCain:
http://www.hcsfjm.com

Party Unity My A$$ PAC/People United Means Action PAC:
http://blog.pumapac.org

Democrats Against Obama/Nobama ever!
http://democrats-against-obama.org

Just Say No Deal:
http://justsaynodeal.com

[AmericaUnited]

Inconceivable!