A Surprising Story on Crime ( George Will )

WASHINGTON -- Listening to political talk requires a third ear that hears what is not said. Today's near silence about crime probably is evidence of social improvement. For many reasons, including better policing and more incarceration, Americans feel, and are, safer. The New York Times has not recently repeated such amusing headlines as "Crime Keeps on Falling, But Prisons Keep on Filling" (1997), "Prison Population Growing Although Crime Rate Drops" (1998), "Number in Prison Grows Despite Crime Reduction" (2000) and "More Inmates, Despite Slight Drop in Crime" (2003).

If crime revives as an issue, it will be through liberal complaints about something that has reduced the salience of the issue -- the incarceration rate. And any revival will be awkward for Barack Obama. Liberalism likes victimization narratives and the related assumption that individuals are blank slates on which "society" writes. Hence liberals locate the cause of crime in flawed social conditions that liberalism supposedly can fix.

Last July, Obama said "more young black men languish in prison than attend colleges and universities." Actually, more than twice as many black men 18-24 are in college as there are in jail. Last September he said, "We have a system that locks away too many young, first-time, nonviolent offenders for the better part of their lives." But Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute, writing in the institute's City Journal, notes that from 1999 to 2004, violent offenders accounted for all of the increase in the prison population. Furthermore, Mac Donald cites data indicating that:

"In the overwhelming majority of cases, prison remains a lifetime achievement award for persistence in criminal offending. Absent recidivism or a violent crime, the criminal-justice system will do everything it can to keep you out of the state or federal slammer."

Obama sees racism in the incarceration rate: "We have certain sentences that are based less on the kind of crime you commit than on what you look like and where you come from." Indeed, in 2006, blacks, who are less than 13 percent of the population, were 37.5 percent of all state and federal prisoners. About one in 33 black men was in prison, compared with one in 79 Hispanic men and one in 205 white men.

But Mac Donald cites studies of charging and sentencing that demonstrate that the reason more blacks are disproportionately in prison, and for longer terms, is not racism but racial differences in patterns of criminal offenses: "In 2005 the black homicide rate was over seven times higher than that of whites and Hispanics combined. ... From 1976 to 2005, blacks committed over 52 percent of all murders." Do police excessively arrest blacks? "The race of criminals reported by crime victims matches arrest data."

As for the charge that the incarceration rate of blacks is substantially explained by more severe federal sentences for crack as opposed to powder-cocaine defendants (only 13 states distinguish between the two substances, and these states have small sentence differentials), Mac Donald says:

"It's going to take a lot more than 5,000 or so (federal) crack defendants a year to account for the 562,000 black prisoners in state and federal facilities at the end of 2006 -- or the 858,000 black prisoners in custody overall, if one includes the population of county and city jails."

James Q. Wilson, America's premier social scientist, notes that "the typical criminal commits from 12 to 16 crimes a year (not counting drug offenses)" and Wilson says that 10 years of scholarly studies "have shown that states that sent a higher fraction of convicts to prison had lower rates of crime, even after controlling for all of the other ways -- poverty, urbanization, and the proportion of young men in the population -- that the states differed. A high risk of punishment reduces crime. Deterrence works." It works especially on behalf of blacks, who are disproportionately the victims of crimes by black men.

A recent report by the Pew Center on the States asserts that America incarcerates too many people, and in the process diverts money from higher education. Wilson notes that the report does not examine whether the slower growth of public spending on higher education than on prisons may be explained by the surge in private support for public universities. And, Wilson dryly adds, the report does not explore "whether society gets as much from universities as it does from prisons." A good question, but not one apt to be studied in academia.

There are over 300K foreigners incarcerated across America. Imagine how much money we could save if AFTER we secured BOTH borders; we were to deport all the incarcerated foreigners. There is absolutely no reason why American taxpayers should have to pay to incarcerate other countries' criminals. It would not only lower prison costs but would automatically open up slots for AMERICAN criminals who are presently roaming about the country committing more crimes.

“If people really think that crime is going down, go to Los Angeles, Detroit, Chicago and even Las Vegas. They are ghettos.”

BINGO!
We have a winner!

And the only way we are going to correct the problem is by “taking out the trash.” First, the illegals and the foreign muzzies need to go back to whatever hellhole they originated from and “get in line” if they want to emigrate here. And then the National Guard will have to be called out to deal with the hundreds of thousands of street gang members who are spreading drugs & mayhem throughout America. All of this AFTER we secure BOTH borders.
Where is IKE when we really need him!

James Q. Wilson, America's premier social scientist, notes that “the typical criminal commits from 12 to 16 crimes a year (not counting drug offenses)” and Wilson says that 10 years of scholarly studies “have shown that states that sent a higher fraction of convicts to prison had lower rates of crime, even after controlling for all of the other ways — poverty, urbanization, and the proportion of young men in the population — that the states differed. A high risk of punishment reduces crime. Deterrence works.” It works especially on behalf of blacks, who are disproportionately the victims of crimes by black men.

Imagine how crime would lower MORE if we actually applied CAPITAL PUNISHMENT instates where it is still legal. In lovely NJ was just abolished CAPITAL PUNISHMENT. Crime will continue to escalate since there is NO deterrent - but abortion is legal for any reason at any time.

If Obama hasn’t realized by now that this is 2008, and hasn’t seen over and over again the studies that show that regardless of skin color, he who does the crime will do the time, I give up.

I am sick and tired of hearing this same old litany for over 50 years.
Wealth transfers in the form of taxes on those who work and produce something in the USA have moved trillions to the “undereducated-poor-disadvantaged-black-green-purple” parts of the USA fabric.
Those dollars have been mostly wasted by a segment of society that sees itself as a chronic victim, not a group that needs to apply themselves to the opportunities given and offered. Bill Cosby is right, and this victim segment wants to keep blaming everyone but themselves.
Obama needs to realize that he is running to be President of all the population of the USA, not just the blacks and the Muslims.

Last July, Obama said "more young black men languish in prison than attend colleges and universities." Actually, more than twice as many black men 18-24 are in college as there are in jail.

Jesse and Al also try to play this same card over and over, but look how often they defend the wrong side. The recent Duke case and Tawana Brawley come to mind. Yet, neither is repentant when the legal system proves that the black plaintiffs' lied in both cases, hoping to make a quick buck along the way.

Oh, and by the way, neither Jesse or Al have earned divinity degrees so neither deserves to have the title "Rev." in front of their names. Indeed, doing so is an affront to those who actually have earned that title.

Absolutely correct. When I was in LE in the Rio Grande Valley (Texas), we had an outstanding Sheriff, an Hispanic, old family, straight arrow. The racial ratio down there is 80:20 (Anglo:Hispanic).

La Raza was giving him fits about “only arresting” Hispanics, yadda, yadda, yadda, usual claptrap. He told them, “Show up on a Saturday night, I’ll personally take you with me and I’ll show you who’s violating the laws”. No takers. End of story. Sheriff continued his good work. Died of heart complications after a term and a half.

“Bill Cosby is right, and this victim segment wants to keep blaming everyone but themselves.”

BINGO!
We have another winner.

All anyone has to do is look at how much the Asian population especially the Vietnamese have progressed in less than 30 years. When Asian children’s feet hit the floor after getting out of bed each morning; they are expected to graduate from college and expected to graduate at the TOP OF THEIR CLASS!

Can that be said for any other ethnic group in America besides maybe the Jewish? I don’t think so...

[and even Las Vegas. They are ghettos.]
****I don’t think Vegas fits your criteria.****

Excuse me for butting in, but yes, one wouldn't, as based on the typical definition of 'Ghetto' and these numbers...

White: 73.80%
Black: 8.10%
Hispanic: 20.60%
Asian: 4.70%
Native American: 1.00%

But when you get into LVs crime data another picture emerges. (Data Source: 2003 FBI Report of Offenses Known to Law Enforcement)

Murder: 1.55 times the National Average
Forcible Rape: 1.18 times the National Average
Robbery: 1.52 times the National Average
All Violent Crime: 1.29 times the National Average
and as tpo property crimes, this is a whopper
Car Theft: 2.06 times the National Average

Granted these aren't Philly or Baltimore numbers but for a city of 1,189,388 it ain't exactly Mayberry either. Plus this data is 5 Years Old. I'd imagine since then its went UP like the rest of the US effected by the invasion from the South.

So basically Vegas is a shiny 'Neon Ghetto' with a safety zone carved out for tourists (the strip). Everywhere else, its just another city with a crime problem.

That's all, carry on.

http://www.cityrating.com/citystats.asp?city=Las+Vegas&state=NV
http://www.cityrating.com/citycrime.asp?city=Las+Vegas&state=NV

Statement: "...Obama sees racism in the incarceration rate: "We have certain sentences that are based less on the kind of crime you commit than on what you look like and where you come from."

Response: Hussein will cure this.The granting or witholding federal funds shall work wonders.

The most basic rule of statistics is that anything less than a rating of 2.0 is noise, and insignificant.

The ONLY stat you posted that shows any significance is car theft with a rating of 2.06, which is hardly an indication of grinding poverty and racial tension, which are, I believe, strong indicators of the presence of a ghetto.

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