Posted on 05/10/2008 8:16:29 AM PDT by janetjanet998
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
....WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS GULF STATES AND WRN TN VALLEY...
A COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKIES AND POWERFUL LATE SPRING UPPER JET LEAD TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL U.S BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE FROM ERN TX ACROSS GULF STATES TO THE S OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN GA TO SRN AR.
PRECEEDING THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH A MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND ENHANCE BOTH LIFT AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON VICINITY WRN PORTION OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WILL RAPIDLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG. BY MID AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR S OF FRONT WILL BE RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS INCLUDING BOTH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY AHEAD OF THE WIND MAX VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE SRN AR. 60-70KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS INCLUDING THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES. ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD UNDER THE STRONG JET MAX ACROSS MS/AL TO GA TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX COULD EVOLVE INTO A DERECHO TYPE SYSTEM WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE MORE ORGANIZED THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE AVAILABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS THE DEEPENING PROCESS OVER ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER MO INTO LOWER OH VALLEYS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPENDING SWD INTO ERN OK/NRN TX. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW FORECASTED TONIGHT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FORCED SQUALL LINE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AREA WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AND HOW FAR N. GFS IS INDICATING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR BOTH VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES RAPIDLY EWD DRIVEN BY THE 100KT 500MB WIND MAX ROTATING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NRN MO. HAVE SHIFTED BOTH THE MDT/SLGT RISK AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED GREATER INSTABILITY.
ALONG WITH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE POSSIBLY AS FAR E AS LOWER OH AND WRN TN VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND AVAILABILITY OF UNSTABLE GULF AIR...THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXPECTED TO SEE A LARGE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS.
That’s the place, near ‘The Barn’.. when the freeway cut thru, the folks at that farm were bought out by Holiday Inn and someone had the foresight to see a bar in place of where cows and such roamed.. it turned into another kind of wild animal pen. :-)
Spent more nights there than I care to remember. Between the VoTech school and summer visitors to the area, the herds always had a lot of fresh new faces in ‘em. ;-)
Our old farm has a bunch of stuff on it these days.. but there is still some but not much of the old wetlands, marshes, and sloughs left. for now.
Nice trade winds blowing through the Republic of Panama.
even GA now under a Tornado watch
Easte Texas and LA soon two
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=&showtopic=163958&view=findpost&p=2732713
Oh oh... Global Warming alert?
Tornado watch now in Crawford, TX ... nice wedding weather!
it’s starting
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=163958&st=340&gopid=2733191&#entry2733191
this are going nuts
many large tornadoes on the gorund’’
damage and injuries in SW MO
Granby, MO - Significant Damage Reported...
Tornado Outbreak Is Currently Underway - Tornadoes Have Been Reported On The Ground In Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, And Arkansas...
A Tornado Has Struck Newton County, Missouri Area - Injuries And Damage Reported...
Numerous Reports Of Tornadoes Near The Jonesboro, Arkansas Area...
Neosha, MO - Tornado With Injuries And Destruction...
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