Wow! You weren't kidding. Is it unusual to see such a large area designated as moderate? I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped a high designation in there later.
Posted on 05/10/2008 8:16:29 AM PDT by janetjanet998
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
....WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS GULF STATES AND WRN TN VALLEY...
A COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKIES AND POWERFUL LATE SPRING UPPER JET LEAD TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL U.S BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE FROM ERN TX ACROSS GULF STATES TO THE S OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN GA TO SRN AR.
PRECEEDING THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH A MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND ENHANCE BOTH LIFT AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON VICINITY WRN PORTION OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WILL RAPIDLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG. BY MID AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR S OF FRONT WILL BE RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS INCLUDING BOTH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY AHEAD OF THE WIND MAX VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE SRN AR. 60-70KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS INCLUDING THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES. ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD UNDER THE STRONG JET MAX ACROSS MS/AL TO GA TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX COULD EVOLVE INTO A DERECHO TYPE SYSTEM WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE MORE ORGANIZED THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE AVAILABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS THE DEEPENING PROCESS OVER ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER MO INTO LOWER OH VALLEYS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPENDING SWD INTO ERN OK/NRN TX. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW FORECASTED TONIGHT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FORCED SQUALL LINE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AREA WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AND HOW FAR N. GFS IS INDICATING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR BOTH VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES RAPIDLY EWD DRIVEN BY THE 100KT 500MB WIND MAX ROTATING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NRN MO. HAVE SHIFTED BOTH THE MDT/SLGT RISK AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED GREATER INSTABILITY.
ALONG WITH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE POSSIBLY AS FAR E AS LOWER OH AND WRN TN VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND AVAILABILITY OF UNSTABLE GULF AIR...THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXPECTED TO SEE A LARGE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS.
Also a great new site for storm reports
http://www.stormreports.org
already starting(not the main show)
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG LA/AR BORDER
EAST TO CNTRL MS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WATCH AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST WITH
STRONG UPPER WAVE. INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FUEL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS MOST LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES IN
THE WARM SECTOR...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ARE FORECAST
TO BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES WITH
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN SOME AREAS FORECAST TO EXCEED 200 M2/S2.
THUS...A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
bttt
Thanks for posting this storm link again. I didn’t bookmark the other day when you posted, and was looking all over for it.
The Drudge Report - Weather Edition
bttt
supposed to get a burst of heat midweek out in the West, but you’re right, this Global Warming is kicking our butts.. that Al Gore is such a visionary.
I hear the ice is finally off one of my ol’ swimming holes in Minnesota, latest thaw in quite a few years.
here’s hoping the weather don’t spook the wall-eyes opener.. Here’s to ice on the 4th of July way up North! ;-)
my ol’s stompin’ ground’s newspaper lead story. :-)
Where will walleyes be?
http://www.echopress.com/articles/index.cfm?id=55962§ion=News
In Fairbanks, no weather should be expected today.
oh deeeeer
I’m originally from Fergus Falls, you from Alex?
Real close by,, we got annexed to Alex in the 60s and our old farm dissected by I-94 and power lines... :-)
So yur an Otter, wow? Red Cardinal here. :-)
Cool. Near where the exit from the Insterstate was? How long you been gone?
Been a long time since I been up that way. Cannot remember that bar right there. Big college hang out. Set up like a barn. Double decker with a dance floor in the middle. Could look down from the 2nd level on the dance floor.
Loved Alexandrea. Used to go there when I was in high school. Hung out with a bunch of people in college so they use to bring me in with them. Good old days before the MADD crowd got the laws all change to outlaw fun and all the bar owners got totally paranoid about checking IDs
Bump!
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