VETS PLEASE ADD YOUR NAME TO OUR ROLL CALL ROSTER AT:
http://Vets4McCain.com
Posted on 04/17/2008 2:34:20 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
If there was any doubt that the drawn-out primary season is taking a toll on the Democratic Party's chances for victory in November, look no further than the events of April 15. As Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama raised the stakes (and the rhetoric) in Pennsylvania, John McCain finally decided to frame the economic debate. His speech on the economy got full cable TV coverage, while stories on Obama and Clinton were focused exclusively on "bitterness." The economy was supposed to be Democrats' ace in the hole this year. After all, a Republican can't win in the Rust Belt when the economy is in the tank, right?
McCain's speech touched on a lot of familiar territory, such as ending earmarks, ditching the alternative minimum tax and attacking Democrats as tax-and-spenders. On job retraining, McCain once again reminded his audience about jobs that are "not coming back." That phrase fell like a lead balloon in the face of Mitt Romney when he promised to fight for lost auto industry jobs in Michigan.
But McCain's speech began, notably, with an empathetic approach to those impacted by the economic downturn. He railed against the "extravagant salaries and severance deals of CEOs," and he called for a summer holiday on gas taxes.
The "I feel your pain" McCain is also featured in a new ad currently running in Pennsylvania and Ohio. It features an upbeat voice-over and hits on some of the same concerns raised in the speech -- like portable and affordable health care and mortgage debt restructuring. He may still offer some "straight talk," but it has a decidedly less "eat your vegetables" tone.
To be sure, McCain's overall economic philosophy hasn't changed (as the Democratic White House hopefuls were quick to point out in e-mailed press releases), but his approach may have. Will it be enough to win the support of voters who are decidedly pessimistic about the economy and President Bush? Or will Democratic attacks on his support for (and previous disavowal of) the Bush tax cuts undermine his credibility on the issue? More important, can McCain buck historical trends and win the White House by carrying Rust Belt voters in a recession?
Gallup has measured voter satisfaction with the direction of the country since 1979. Today, just 19 percent of Americans say they are satisfied. Only twice in the poll's history have voters felt more pessimistic than they do today: in 1979, when that measure sank to an all-time low of 12 percent, and in June 1992 (14 percent).
In the presidential elections of 1980 and 1992, the incumbent party was defeated soundly and the Rust Belt went overwhelmingly to the challenger. In his rout of President Jimmy Carter in '80, Ronald Reagan took all the Rust Belt states except Minnesota and West Virginia, after Carter had carried most of the region four years earlier. In '92, Bill Clinton carried Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, after George H.W. Bush had won most of the Rust Belt states in 1988.
This year, Democrats are counting on attracting Reagan Democrats by pointing to the flailing economy. This issue more than any other could help the party overcome the "culture gap" that has sent these voters into the arms of the GOP for the last few years.
Republicans were giddy about Obama's comments on guns, religion and bitterness, since they allowed the GOP to frame Obama in the mold of Michael Dukakis and John Kerry. But the brie/endive/Chardonnay attacks of '88 and '04 came when the GOP brand was in much better shape. Wind-surfin', Swiss-cheesesteak eatin', French-lookin' Kerry still won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Why would Obama do any worse?
The answer, of course, gets us right back to the uncomfortable issue of race -- or at least that's the conclusion many reach when considering why Obama's not been able to break through with downscale white voters. Just imagine if Joseph Biden or Christopher Dodd had made similar remarks; would they be written off with autoworkers in Michigan?
Democratic superdelegates seem to have little choice but to rally behind Obama. But if Obama wins the nomination without the support of Rust Belt working-class whites, will McCain be able to pick off what should be reliable blue states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as swing states like Ohio?
If Obama doesn't take Ohio in the general, he could still get to 270 electoral votes by carrying New Mexico and Iowa (states won by Al Gore but not Kerry), but he would then need to pick up six more EVs to win the election; a win in Colorado (9 EVs) or Virginia (13 EVs) would do it. But if he loses in Pennsylvania or Michigan, the path to 270 gets much more difficult. Obama may espouse a new kind of politics, but the old-school Rust Belt remains the key to winning the White House.
Yep. He sure did.
>On job retraining, McCain once again reminded his audience about jobs that are “not coming back.”<
Jobs aren’t coming back, get over it sounds a lot better than what BHO has been hurling all over the place.
When I first heard McCain’s “get over it” statement, it sounded like a slap in the face.
Scary that Obama makes Juan look kind of good, huh?
I don’t see republicans taking Michigan. MI is quite content with its socialist slave masters.
In the last election, MI went into voting both and re-elected a communist as governor - with 57% of the vote. This despite the state boasting the highest unemployment in the nation, promses of more and ever higher taxes and quarter after quarter of negative growth.
Productive citizens have left by the hundreds of thousands, leaving the state in the hands of government employees and retirees drawing governmenmt retirement checks, people collecting SS benefits and welfare bums. A trip through rural MI will show mile after mile of boarded up businesses, catatonic downtown districts and countless for sale signs. The 1930’s depression has returned to MI.
If republicans are smart, they won’t spend a dime in this socialist/welfare hellhole. Better to go after Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Thats the point no one wants to make. BHO and HRC are terrible candidates. They make Kerry look very formidable.
The old manufacturing jobs aren't coming back, but it does not mean that new industries can't start in the Rust Belt states as soon as they shake off the 1900s mindset of big steel and big labor.
Yes Hill and Obama are sorry candidates. It just keeps getting worse and worse for the dems.
Mc Queeg?
Duck down and cover.
Lets see.... The jobs have been gone for 30 years...
It’s prolly safe to say they aren’t coming back.
The thing that has stopped new jobs from coming to those areas is Taxes levied by dems on business.
Bingo
At least give the guy the respect of listening for a few minutes before totally writing him off.
I don’t think it is smart to write off Michigan this time around. McCain won the primary in 2000 there. For whatever reason, he is popular there. More so than Wisconsin and Minnesota. A win there should pretty much guarantee a win nationally.
VETS PLEASE ADD YOUR NAME TO OUR ROLL CALL ROSTER AT:
http://Vets4McCain.com
The most absolutely delicious aspect of the upcoming landslide victory for McCain over SnObama is that the MoveOn crew, who now OWN the Demodog party, will rant and rave about their losing because SnObama was not socialist enough.
During last weekend, a Marist poll was released that showed McCain even or even AHEAD of either SnObama or Hitlery in (sit down and take a deep breath) NYState, of all places!
I believe that poll is accurate, by the way. Marist typically leans Demodog. Incredibly enough, the Demodogs are in that much trouble, I believe. It will almost certainly change, but for it to be in that state now is quite revealing.
Wonder if it is at all possible that the Dems would rent a brain and nominate Sentor Jim Webb for POTUS? Methinks that Webb could go mano a mano with McCain and perhaps win.
You bet and when one remembers that the entire Dem Party is a loony as the two candidates we saw on ABC last night, yipe. McCain even had 9 of the Luntz group on Fox saying that they would vote for him if their fave did not get the nomination. And remember, elect down ticket conservative Pubs in the House and Senate races. The entire Dem Party is simply Carter redux!
Don’t get carried away. There are enough nuts here that hate this country enough to elect Obama. Republicans will have to work hard and get out the vote.
I only hope it is because her opponent was rich and that Michigan hates rich people and bought into the China outsourcing stories the democrats pushed.
With the outflow of workers, this is going to be a real tough relection for the GOP. Our loss is Florida and Arizona's gain. Bush's approval rating around here is probably about 20%, and I'm in a Republican area of the state.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.