German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

AFP via Yahoo ^ | 04/15/08

[Abathar]

BERLIN (AFP) - A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

[Abathar]

Interesting, add this gem to their global warming oops last year and it is kind of amazing they can get things like the mars rovers right.

[neodad]

Don’t forget the screwup on the other Mars probe. Didn’t convert the calculations from metric and it burned up on entry.

[neodad]

Oops. Got it backwards. Didn’t convert from English to metric.

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/launches/orbiter_errorupd_093099.htm

[Typical_Whitey]

Its all Bush’s fault anyway...

[Perdogg]

They screwed up on a metric conversion on mass/weight. Don’t ya just love government run science?

[Nailbiter]

I find amazing that this is even published.

However it does give the “sky is falling” crowd something more to scare the uninformed.

[Cincinatus]

he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid [sic]."

I hope he spelled better than this nitwit reporter....

[Red Badger]

Well, that’s what you get when you use “boffins”, whatever that is!..................

[SlowBoat407]

I would think the result of that asteroid hitting a satellite would be about the same as a car smacking into a beetle at 65 mph. Beetle goes splat, car is unaffected.

[J40000]

Can you imagine a kid that has gone through OUR public school system being able to figure something like this???

[Abathar]

We have been fighting those oops since we decided not to join the metric revolution.

I own a tool and die company, .03937 is the magic number around here. Everything else brings to mind fingernails and paperclip widths, but multiply millimeters with that number and it all falls into place mentally.

[Abathar]

I was scratching my head on that one too, satellites aren’t all that heavy for obvious reasons.

I guess when your working with such large numbers a .0001% change over that distance traveled and time it could make a difference.

[Holicheese]

Maybe the Mars Rover ended up on Venus instead of Mars. Who would know?

[wideawake]

Can you imagine a kid that has gone through OUR public school system being able to figure something like this???

If he went to NYC's Stuyvesant High School, absolutely.

[Sloth]

Surely Teal’c can do something about this.

[antiRepublicrat]

Beetle goes splat, car is unaffected.

The car is affected, imperceptably. But the small effect adds up over time, apparently enough to nudge the asteroid 30K+ km over the hundreds of millions of miles of orbit.

[Fundamentally Fair]

Can you imagine a kid that has gone through OUR public school system being able to figure something like this???

Sure. Why not? Do you think that there are no outstanding students in public schools?

[Lokibob]

“If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.”

I find it a little difficult to believe that a 1,000 lb communications satellite will alter the orbit of a 200,000 billion ton asteroid very much. But hey, I am not a rocket scientist, I just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

.....Bob

[Abathar]

*snicker*

[catman67]

Better use Preparation A!