Of course, you can believe what you want.
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U.S. Dollar Index
Posted on 04/08/2008 11:25:08 AM PDT by kellynla
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Some members of the Federal Reserve are worried about the possibility of a "severe and protracted downturn" in the U.S. economy, according to the minutes of the central bank's latest minutes released Tuesday.
The minutes show that some Fed policymakers are concerned that the problems in the "housing sector had deepened and that considerable uncertainty surrounded the outlook for housing."
The Fed cut its key federal funds rate by three-quarters of a point at the March 18 meeting, its sixth rate cut since September. The Fed has been cutting rates in an effort to keep the U.S. economy from falling into recession following the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market and resulting credit crunch.
But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last week that a "recession is possible," although he said he believed the economy is still growing slowly.
Despite the growing belief that the economy is already in recession, the presidents of the Dallas and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks voted against cutting rates as aggressively, a rare amount of dissent on the central bank.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
I could’ve made it fine without seeing a pic of them. LOL
Arbitrary as in what's been in textbooks for maybe the last 30 years (at least what I know of)?
Arbitrary as in what everyone with any schooling in macro economics from pretty much any school understands that term to mean?
You know, my two year old speaks his own language too, no one can understand him, but it sound cute. Maybe you can come over and have a conversation with him?
Where is the Capt Obvious pics?
Well Red, I actually have 2 degrees (Finance and Economics) and, the fact is, the “2 consecutive quarters” definition is, in fact, arbitrary.
A recession is a sustained economic slowdown which is, in fact, happening.
Just because your firm and/or industry is not feeling the pain does not mean the economy overall is not declining.
And anyone with any knowledge of how the government compiles the data used in their reports can tell you it is not reflective of economic activity as a whole, and hasn’t been for some time, which is why the Fed regularly takes actions which would be contraindicated by the reports. Simply, they have raw data which, as it is unfiltered by the formulas established by politically motivated employees of the Department of Commerce.
When you say we are in a recession, and the definition is not met, you are full $hit, that simple.
Why not call it a depression? “The apocalyptic depression of 2008” Come to think about it, all meanings of all worlds are arbitrary by your reasoning.
Simply because of two basic facts:
1) The measures are all trailing indicators. At best they recognize a recession 3-6 months after it has begun.
2) The “data” reported to the public is based on outdated assumptions in some cases (ie the “basket of products” included in measures like CPI), and politically motivated modifications in others.
With the large numbers of layoffs, drastically reduced availability of both consumer and commercial credit, and the resulting reduction in consumption caused by these two factors, what you have is reduced economic activity. Add in higher costs of core products (such as fuel and food) and what you have is an economy that, if measured broadly, is contracting.
You can stick to your reliance on trailing indicators all you want, but I’d much rather base my evaluation of the economic health of the nation on what is actually happening now.
Let's see;
You are paying more at the gas pump, because oil is selling for more, the feds charge a lot per gallon in taxes, and the oil company wants a 10% profit margin?
The question then becomes, what part of that increase in costs, and subsequent increase per gallon to you, is a manifestation of recession?
If there was a recession going on, how can the cost of stuff actually rise?
Does not the market set prices? And if the market does set prices, then there must be people out there, literally 10's of millions of them daily, willing to and paying the higher prices?? Is that the recession you refer to?
Oh, and grocery prices, please apply the scenario above, in addition to the increased cost of delivery of the goods due to the aforementioned gas prices.
And "revised" indicators months later. LOL on the security blanket crowd.
Zimbabwe is in a recession. And just think, they are all millionaires over there too! Have you followed the U.S. Dollar lately? This stuff in not unique in history.
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AP) With Bread Now $16 Million a Loaf in Zimbabwe, Country Issues Larger Money Posted: April 4, 2008 09:54 AM CDT
The price of bread, and everything else, is up in Zimbabwe: one loaf now costs 16 million dollars.
To keep pace with skyrocketing prices, the Zimbabwe government has had to take repeated action. Today, authorities introduced a new 50-million-dollar bank note — enough to buy three loaves of bread, and get some change back. Until prices rise again.
It’s the third time in three months that Zimbabwe’s central bank has issued a higher denomination note in response to rising costs.
Inflation there now tops 100,000 percent a year.
At the risk of getting flamed off this board - I must point to something quite important...
George W. Bush bears the lion’s share of the blame for the economy. It is his lack of guts to VETO the out-of-control spending, the irresponsible folding to environmental wack-jobs, and his overall poor example on the fiscal front has us in this position.
Spending - even when the PUBs had the majority, spending was out of control. And now with the libs in the majority, the spending hasn’t stopped. And yet the veto pen just doesn’t seem to have much ink in it...
His lack of guts to stand up for drilling our own oil, for opening up new refineries, and capitulating to the farm industry...
And whats with his man in the FED? He seems to think that printing US Dollars like Monopoly money is a good idea... With spending at some $360 billion more per year than taken in by the federal government - just print more to cover your debts...
And I didn’t even mention government encouragement for “universal ownership”.... the idea that everyone deserves to OWN a home of their own.
But I suppose there will be plenty of flames for me, so I had better put on my fire-resistant PJs....
Just ask Japan...
There is a reason - if you go posting "for sale" signs everywhere, that invites trash. You will see a dramatic increase in crime and undesirables.
so, are saying that the price of groceries and gas here in the US is due to zimbabwe style inflation?? With zero productivity? Zero employment? No imports or exports, essentially nada going on economically?
And it is getting harder and harder for many folks to pay for them...
homeless stats include people who are “crashing” with friends even though they are young adults on the move and looking for jobs etc. We sold our house once and had five weeks of crashing before we got a new one,,during that period we were “homeless”
Ya won’t get any “heat” from me Battman. LOL
I still remember what a reeeeeeel conservative POTUS did even with a ‘Rat controlled congress...and GWB is no RR!
And the only way we are ever going to get out of this mess is if true blue conservatives start running for public office on the local, state & federal levels and we start supporting & electing them. Until we have a better field of conservative governors to run for POTUS; things are not going to get much better...
Of course, you can believe what you want.
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U.S. Dollar Index
Except that our brand of inflation is cause by a DEVALUATION of our currency. $100 US Dollars, just a short time back, would buy a full barrel of crud oil. Now it won’t even buy a half of a barrel.
While some folks tried to claim it was all due to rising global demand, the BIGGEST factor is the devaluation of the $US.
The proof is in the pudding - or in this case, in other nations’ markets. Where many others are only paying modestly higher prices for their crude oil and the fuels from it, we are paying significantly higher prices.
Yeah, that’s why we have that rule and I’m all for it. It does mask the reality to some degree though.
Oh, I fully intend on doing just that, and living it as well.
Just opened escrow on our second rental unit, nice number in the burbs, the moderate rent shold cover all monthly expenses and some.
My business has grown 11% per year for 7 straight years, just hired another employee, and am interviewing for one more.
Have time to go shooting and fishing two days a week, with or without my wife and daughter.
My only complaint is the paucity of good candidates for the November elections. Oh well, got to play the hand that is delt.
Life is good.
.You?
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