Posted on 03/17/2008 8:47:05 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 244.58 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I have a real problem with several of these states. They need to quit using Dem. Vs. Rep. for the divider and start to use Mc Cain versus Obama or Hillary. Polls out today show Mc Cain beating either one of them in Ohio and PA.
I was going to say something similar. McCain will take OH and PA will be the next big swing state IMO.
I still contend that Arkansas is no longer red but purple, and could possibly be blue by November.
I caught an Arkansas business program Sunday morning. The host read off some recent polling numbers.
IIRC, recent polling for Arkansas showed
McCain (46%) beating Obama (36%), and
Clinton (51%) beating McCain (43%).
In neither match-up is McCain polling a majority (50%) against either Dem contender.
I agree. McCain right now would probably lose. But as the general election campaign heats up I can see McCain winning Ohio and PA. As well as Iowa, NH, Colorado, New Mexico. If it’s McCain vs. Hillary which I believe it will be, he destroys her and wins 40 states.
I could put in McCain instead of Rep next week.
Until we are certain who the RAT nominee is, I'll hold off and just use Dem.
Clinton would win AR just because her husband was from there? People there can’t be that bright I guess. Remember the stories of how condescending she was to AR values? If she wins there I guess it also means Gov Huckabee didn’t do too much to help the GOP!
If these polls showing McCain winning OH and PA are correct then already this map is outdated. At least the generic GOP vote seems to be increasing as the last time didn’t it show a Dem-Rep split of something like 309-229?
Can we correct the liberal media newsspeak colors ? We’re not Communists, thank you.
This shows us losing four Repiblican states from 2004: Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. It also shows several other of our traditional states in play.....not good trends. If we don’t find someone who can hold on to Ohio, its time to start playing win Congress in 2010.
For the first time, my own guesses have dropped the Dims below 400. I guess that is movement in the “right” direction.
SSSsssssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhh!
Right now we want the liberals amongst us to feel over confidant.
Those of us who know anything about politics recognize that right now McCain has a commanding lead.
He’s the only one acting presidential.
Based on 20,000 simulations, the probability of Republicans getting at least 270 electoral college votes is 22.01%. This is an increase of 1.63% over last week.
-PJ
And FLA too...
Dems have ZERO chance in the general election... Neither of their front runners has any chance of winning a general election, and that would be if the party was united, and its not... and if Obama stays in the lead through the popular election and Hillary becomes the nominee she will be lucky to see 30% of the vote.
Even if she pulls of a popular vote lead before the convention, the damage is already done. Black conspiracy mill and talk radio will ensure that the Dems have one of the worst elections in a long time.
Dems invented identity and group politics and now they are imploding because of it. Evil always eats its own.
Fla, OH, and PA at this point are locked for R’s regardless of whether its HillBilly or Fauxbama for the D’s... other states that have been Ds also will go R... D’s cannot afford to lose 1 state that they have carried in the last 2 cycles if they wish to have a prayer.. and there are several of those that they cannot carry with either of these losers.
All McCain has to do is continue to do what he is doing, and he’ll cakewalk to the White House.
The longer the democrats draw out their party’s nomination, the wider the disenfranchisement will be of atleast part of their voters. I’ve already heard Obama supporters say that if Obama is leading going to the convention and HIllary pulls out the nomination through superdelegates, they’ll stay home and NOT vote!
Running your "what-if" scenario making FL, OH, and PA 100% GOP, the expected vote is GOP 277 and Dem 261. The probability of the GOP reaching 270 electoral college votes would be 56.82%.
-PJ
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place your contrary bets
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Doing so would also alter, at the margin, what this market
tells the rest of the world
about the expectations of people
Who Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is.
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