You must have seen DFU's video.
![](http://i30.tinypic.com/2prtpio.jpg")
Posted on 03/09/2008 11:11:38 AM PDT by kingattax
A prolonged race may inspire voter hoopla but could floor the party's chances once a nominee is finally selected.
What if the coronation that is the 2008 Democratic National Convention turns cutthroat?
Could a presidential primary race so energizing that it has brought record numbers of voters to the polls and will result in the nomination of a historic candidate end in disillusionment, anger and feelings of betrayal?
Top Democrats are beginning to resign themselves to the chance the party won't know who will win the presidential nomination until after delegates take the floor of the Pepsi Center in August.
That scenario frightens party leaders, who say a contested convention would hurt the party and its chance of beating Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona come Election Day. But with New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's victories Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (Justin Sullivan / Getty Images) Tuesday, all talk of ending this race quickly is over.
Former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, a Democratic strategist campaigning for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, said he is almost certain the battle won't end until the convention. There are only three ways a floor fight can be avoided, Hart said.
"One is a massive swing of voters one way or the other, which I think is improbable. Second, a massive swing of superdelegates, which I think is equally improbable. Or a resolution of Michigan and Florida, which is improbable," Hart said. "So if you throw out those possibilities, you see that it is coming to the floor."
Experts see great dangers in the development — but also ways to navigate through the tricky process that could help the party.
The benefits could be that the candidates are forced to continue mobilizing supporters in every state and commonwealth all the way to June 3, when the last contests are held. Such a race, however exhausting for the rivals, would give more people access to a meaningful process.
Such a cross-country trek would keep the news on the Democrats, the thinking goes, and McCain would want for attention.
Finally, the prolonged race continues to vet the candidates, preparing them for US Democratic presidential candidate Illinois Senator Barack Obama (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images) Republican attacks by getting the negative stories out in the open early.
But therein begin the cons. Every attack becomes potential fodder for the Republicans. In addition, the candidates are raising huge sums of money that must be used on the primary races instead of focusing on the general election.
Dean wants race decided
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean has said he wants to see the race decided before the convention so that the party can focus its attention on springboarding the nominee into the general election race. A floor fight could stymie that.
Especially if the floor fight is decided by party officials or the nearly 800 superdelegates who get to vote as they please.
Hart blames, in part, superdelegate influence on his failure to win the presidential nomination in 1984 when he ran against former Vice President Walter Mondale. He warns that if superdelegates play politics to the exclusion of the apparent will of the voters, they could hurt the party.
"I went out in the fall (to stump for Mondale)," Hart said. "My voters were like Obama's. I couldn't get them to move.
"It's not as if Obama's voters will vote for McCain," Hart said. "They would stay home — particularly if they think the system is rigged. So whatever happens here, it needs to be as transparent as possible."
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a former DNC chairman and a supporter of Clinton's, is more optimistic.
"I actually think it's good for the party," Rendell said. "This idea that our candidates are going to blow each other up, sure there will be some of that, but it will be mild compared to what the Republicans are going to do."
Another potential land mine is the situation created by Michigan and Florida, which broke DNC rules in moving up their primaries and were stripped of all their delegates.
The states are contemplating redoing their primaries, but if that issue has to be resolved at the Pepsi Center, where a committee must decide whether and how the delegates are seated and present the plan to the floor for a vote, experts say that process would almost certainly be highly politicized and possibly ugly.
Without Michigan and Florida, Clinton and Obama need 2,025 delegates to secure the nomination. With the barred states back in play, the candidates would need 2,209. Going into Wyoming's caucuses Saturday, Obama led Clinton 1,360 to 1,220 in pledged delegates, or those who are dedicated to a candidate based on votes they received at primaries and caucuses, according to The Associated Press.
Because the Democrats award delegates proportionally, experts say it is unlikely that Clinton can overtake that 140-delegate lead in the races remaining. But experts also say it is unlikely Obama can reach 2,025.
"Ultimately, the superdelegates will make the decision," said Robert Eisinger, a political scientist at Lewis & Clark College in Portland, Ore. "The question is: Will they do it in May? Will they do it in June? Will they do it at the convention?"
Obama, with his lead, has said the superdelegates should follow the will of the voters. Clinton, with more initial support among superdelegates, believes they should vote their conscience. The rules are clear: The superdelegates — Democratic Party officials and Democrats elected to either Congress or statewide offices — are free to support the candidate of their choice. So far, there is no consensus among the superdelegates.
Dem division seen before
The Democrats have seen divided conventions before, such as the one Hart experienced in 1984, but the nomination was settled with a single floor vote. The party hasn't had a so-called brokered convention, where a floor vote fails to bring clarity and party bosses have to intervene, since 1952.
Leah Daughtry, the chief executive for the Democratic National Convention Committee, said she thinks the party can settle its differences.
"I know that it's much more exciting and much more interesting to people to think that there's going to be blood on the floor and wailing and gnashing of teeth," Daughtry said. "People who speculate that way really underestimate the desire of the Democratic Party to take the country in a new direction."
Meanwhile, Daughtry's job is made more difficult by the possibility of a contest in the convention hall. Traditionally, the nominee helps plan the long list of speakers and other key features of the four-day event.
Come prime time, the speakers extol the virtues of their nominee. But how does that work when a nominee is still in the offing?
"It ends up being the DNCC's game," said David Passafaro, the president of Boston's host committee when that city hosted the Democrats in 2004. "So they're going to have to walk a fine line in how they arrange the convention to be fair to both parties."
And some big donors wait until a nominee has been decided to support a host city's efforts to raise the millions needed to stage the event. Add to that the drain on donors that the record-breaking fundraising of the campaigns is creating and there is another potential headache.
Mayor John Hickenlooper, who has been out raising money for the convention for more than a year, concedes that dynamic is making his job more difficult.
But Hickenlooper and others see some positives. The increased attention and increased coverage by the networks would keep Denver in the spotlight — a booster's dream.
With the promise of making history in nominating either an African-American or a woman coupled with the floor fight, the mayor said, "You couldn't have scripted anything better for Denver."
Jeff Greenfield, political director at CBS News, said the extended primary already is creating extra coverage, adding he "would have to believe" that a contested convention would get more airtime.
But if the race becomes divisive, such attention could backfire. The riots outside the convention hall in Chicago in 1968 were, in part, a reaction to the party's nominating Hubert Humphrey when he lacked popular support. That convention so angered Democrats that they changed the rules in 1972 to give states the clout their pledged delegates have given them until, it seems, now.
How things might look if party officials are forced to intervene is speculative, but the fear is that some kind of backroom deal, or the appearance of one, might settle the race and divide the party.
The Republicans witnessed the danger of a contested convention in 1976, when then-President Gerald Ford battled Ronald Reagan. The brutal race weakened the party, and Ford lost to Democrat Jimmy Carter.
"I don't totally dismiss the point that a competition like this focuses the attention on the Democratic race. That's true," said Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams.
"But having said that, this race is getting very negative," he said. "The animosity between the two sides is starting to really show itself. Now you've got a situation where these superdelegates are probably going to determine the nominee, and one side or the other is going to feel robbed."
Boo hoo. The Evil Ones are fighting among themselves.
Yeah, Limbaugh Effect!
Then we'll see two pols that know how to play hardball go after each other. Sadly, one of them has portrayed himself as being above that kind of behaviour and will step on his own dick if he engages in it, and the other one knows it. Pass the popcorn, please.
Enter AlGore, stage left...
you're talkin about hillary, right ?
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What will be curious here....how will the media react when various groups suddenly shift and support Hillary? Will they ask stupid questions? Will they ask about what was promised? This could turn into a very amusing live event...better than Monday Night Football and Pro Wrestling combined.
You must have seen DFU's video.
They’re gonna need to install a bigger door then.
... has the most ridiculous name since Moonbeam.
There could easily be major riots if Obama continues to win decisively in the primaries and then Hilla-monster steals it from him at the convention.
That this is technically within the rules does not matter; a real grievance, as opposed to an imaginary one, could have all kinds of unpredictable consequences.
Or, put another way,
CLINTONS RELISH BROKERED CONVENTION
Anyone who has jaywalked, cursed or had a drink or two will find themselves blackmail targets courtesy of the Cuddly Clinton Team.
bingo
Agreed. Russert has been forced to do actual analysis of what Obama’s peeps do if Hillary gets the nomination and vice-versa. Hillary’s peeps may be more inclined to relate to McCain than Obama. And I’ve seen that 20 % of white, blue-collar workers in the Demonrat Party go to McCain if Obama gets the nomination. We may as well enjoy the process, because in the end, McCain is the best we can hope for.
Give us a brokered convention. Which ever rat is picked will leave the supporters from the other side mad and in a funk. They may vot republican for spite or not vote at all. Go Rats, Go ( away).
Is this true? I know record numbers of "DEMS" went to the polls---but were they Dems or Republicans voting for or against Hillary? Do you know if the actual total numbers of primary voters is up significantly?
But only if enough of the the superdelegates commit one way or another. There is no way that either Obama or the Bride of XXX-42 can hit the 2000+ without a lot of the approx. 800 superdelegates.
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