Posted on 02/18/2008 6:27:50 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 218 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 320 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 230.61 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
That may be the sentiment now but its a long way till November..... and the leftists running won’t be so popular by summers end.
it remains true... win PA/OH/FL, win the presidency.
(first post in like 3 yrs btw OMGBBQ)
Missouri and Florida swapped from last week?
That is correct.
Still a long way out but this gets ingrained in the voters and they get a fixed mindset. Could be hosed.
It looks about right. If Hillary pulls off the nomination however, it might be closer. Either way, we are still looking at at Dem president for 2008.
I’d say this is way off, as I expect McCain to get the crap kicked out of him. I think it would be difficult for him to carry more than a dozen states.
I still think that MO, AR, TN, VA will flip by election day. Once the media starts telling the truth about McCain, he will have serious problems in the border of the South.
These kinds of “guesses” are worth nothing at this point.
Kerry projected to win Electoral College, 280 to 248
http://boards.historychannel.com/thread.jspa?threadID=300027006&tstart=45&mod=1098494809892
I think I’ll buy Virginia, Texas and Louisiana if Obama is the nominee.
thanks...nothing is right on. What are they trying to do, demoralize the republicans already?
The 15 states that got to pick shouldn’t have picked a candidate that can’t win. National primary day now.
This is an exercise in futility until the nominees and their running mates are known.
That said, the GOP is given less than an even chance of winning FL. A poll posted earlier tonight showed McCain with a healthy lead over Hillary and a huge lead over Obama. IIRC it was 6 over Hillie in FL and 16 over Barama.
“I still think that MO, AR, TN, VA will flip by election day. Once the media starts telling the truth about McCain, he will have serious problems in the border of the South.”
McCain is the most known quantity in the race.
As people know the real left-liberal obama, mccain’s job gets easier.
Obama doesn’t have a prayer in any of those states.
I live in Tennessee. So far solidly red.
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