Posted on 02/11/2008 6:58:26 PM PST by seanmerc
I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend's victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary's inability to win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.
Hillary's results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she will ever come to the party nomination.
Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who have thus far committed themselves.
March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probably wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. (Although in Texas' open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).
And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.
And don't bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favors.
Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.
Good point. In PA, it's a closed primary but you can change your party affiliation up to 30 days before the primary. But same as you, then we can't vote for GOP people down the line in statewide and local positions.
In PA, there are no governor and senators to elect this year, so if I'm happy with the local GOP people and confident of their chance of winning (at this point, there will be mostly incumbents), then I'll cross over for 30 days to vote for Obama if it would matter by April 22, which it may not.
I wouldn't know, can't tell them apart.
I'm going to cross-over and vote for Fred Thompson. Its about the only thing that I can do to stick my finger in the RNC's eyes at this point, the rigging job they did having been so effective.
I briefly considered voting for Hillary (because we can beat her, IMHO), but that though left my mind in about 3 nanoseconds - I don't want any part of electing that witch.
SOMEBODY TELL THE “TOE SUCKER” TO SHUT UP?
Geesh! He changes his predictions like I change socks. He learned to change with the wind from the Clintons. Shut up Dick.
Rush said it best today when he noted that Obama may win all the delegates but Hillary is going to get the nomination!
That would be a huge mistake. We have to put aside our hatred of the Clintons and help defeat Obama. He is the most dangerous man in America--and as close to a perfect nominee as possible. We cannot defeat him. Only Hillary can. We must help her.
I have seriously considered it only because I'd like to see the fun if Obama gets more votes but loses because of super delegates. You couldn't buy entertainment that good.
But it's only a fantasy; the fact that I voted in the rat primary would probably haunt me the rest of my life.
It's the sort of enterainment that might require an Ugly Black Gun, a Serious Social Purposes Shotgun, and/or a .50 cal "sniper rifle" for proper enjoyment.
No thanks.
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