Posted on 01/07/2008 6:20:12 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 211 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 327 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 241.05 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
If this is correct then there are only 5 states in play: Colorado, Missouri, Virginia, Florida, and Nevada.
Until there are definite personalities running against each other, with campaign structures & strategies, such a projection is beyond abstract.
Can I make $$$$ on this information somehow?
As much as I’ve argued otherwise in the past, with Tim Kaine and Doug Wilder endorsing Obama, and with a very popular Mark Warner on the ticket for Senate...if Obama is the nominee, we will indeed have a difficult time holding Virginia in the GOP column. For the first time since 1964.
The bid price is 45.0 and the ask price is 54.9. These average to 49.95.
Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.
Hillary is the GOP’s best hope. Who’da thunk it?
There may be some truth to what you say.
I will be posting these threads every Monday up until the 2008 General Election. Today is the first Monday in 2008.
I did the same thing in 2004.
Ohio bothers me more in some ways. If the Democrats hold on to the states that they won in 2004 and carry Ohio then they win. According to this it’s solidly Democratic now.
*****SIGH******
BTW - re: your tagline. If I hadn’t done all of my Christmas shopping with cash, it would be very offensive :) LOL! I’ve already started my Christmas shopping for this year :)
VA has blue I am afraid.
Just too many illegals who will vote.
Better Obama than Clinton. although not much.
Obama or McCain or ROmney or Huck.
No difference and let the dems get credit for socialism,
Agreed. This is meaningless.
Arkansas may be closer to Blue than Red.
For this thread I posted a .gif of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.
In 2004 I was able to post the info as HTML code, but I seem to have forgotten how to do so since then.
If anyone can help with posting Excel 2007 data as correctly formatted HTML, I would appreciate the advice.
Sadly, those are all traditionally red states. Also listed as a flip and not competitive is Ohio, another traditionally red state. If these perceptions are accurate, Republicans are in a world of hurt this fall. Personally, I'm not so pessimistic.
What this means, if correct, is that how I vote makes no difference.
I have only one way of effecting the outcome the election, my wallet.
Living in a socialist Blue state I guessed this already.
No Republican has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.
What this means, if correct, is that how I vote makes no difference.
I have only one way of effecting the outcome the election, my wallet.
Living in a socialist Blue state I guessed this already.
The data comes from traders betting on the election. It is only January. There are likely to be lead changes this year, just as there were in 2004.
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