Futures markets see McCain, Obama wins

WND ^ | 1/4/08 | Jerome R. Corsi

[Norman Bates]

Bets in the political futures markets strongly suggest the momentum Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain gained in the Iowa caucuses will carry them both to strong victories in the upcoming New Hampshire primary.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen, who relied on the markets to predict accurately Iowa wins for Obama and Gov. Mike Huckabee, told WND McCain gained the most nationally after a virtual tie for third in the Hawkeye state. Anticipating a New Hampshire victory, the markets now project the Arizona senator as the favorite to win the GOP nomination.

The Rasmussen market predictions now give Obama a 65 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary in New Hampshire and McCain a 74 percent chance in the state's Republican contest.

Intrade.com, a predictions market run out of Ireland, shows almost exactly the same results, giving Obama a 67 percent chance of winning New Hampshire and McCain a 74.9 percent chance.

"Our prediction market for Iowa turned out to be very accurate," Rasmussen said.

[tomnbeverly]

Each candidate has flaws. My position is we take the lesser of the evils... Now my top priorities:

1. The President has to keep this country safe from attack, they have no greater responsibility.

Because we certainly can’t enjoy Freedom and liberty granted to us by the Constituion, if we are being exterminated by the radical Islamists that will kill themselves to instill terror in us and steal our freedom.

In a post 911 world everything else is secondary.

Which Democrat listed that as their top priority?
Thats why I will not stay home and I will vote for the only party that has shown responsibility regarding my number one issue... I many not like the Nominee but as long as they are from the Party that keeps America safe a party that doesn’t bend to the radical idiots from move on dot org.

[tomnbeverly]

See my post #41... Yes it would be great if we had an all encompassing Conservative Republican but that is unlikely the media’s misinformation campaign is hard to fight... or is it time then to say well maybe the Democrats should be in charge for awhile? Lets all board the train of the Audacity of Hope and change... Lets undo everything that the evil Bush has done in the past 8 years...7 of which have been free from attack... 7 years the longest this country has ever gone without a terror attack on its soil (includes USS Cole, Embassy’s, etc).. He gets zero credit for the positive impact of his policies but he gets hammered by the Democrats and some Republicans... Is it time to take that chance? Is it time to worry about sending our kids to school so that we will see on the news that elementary schools are being invaded by radical islamists who are murdering our kids on the 6 o’clock news? 1 suicide bomber and a gymnasium full of kids multiplied by the number of active AL-Qaida cells in the U.S. given the word via untapped phone coordination because of President Hillary’s executive order that banned listening in on their conversations. How about 1 stadium filled to capacity on any given Sunday site of the first dirty bomb... because idiot Obama decided to negotiate with Amadmanjihad...

people in American are losing perspective on what is at stake.

[outofstyle]

There are far too many Republicans who will stay home on election day if McCain is the nominee. I’m one....... those are non-negotiable points.

That's clever. You may enjoy your sense of righteousness and refusal to "negotiate," while the nation nose dives. Unlike Carter, if Clinton wins once, she will win twice. The Dems will hold both houses & she will replace an aging, moderate court with solid leftists that will remain for a generation. We will have UK style health care and private gun ownership will be regulated out of existence and endorsed by her judges.

But hey, you can feel good about yourself.

[tomnbeverly]

You might say you know the implications but you don’t seem to fear them...

I guess you don’t have much to lose... hmmm...

[sourcery]

That's clever. You may enjoy your sense of righteousness and refusal to "negotiate," while the nation nose dives. Unlike Carter, if Clinton wins once, she will win twice. The Dems will hold both houses & she will replace an aging, moderate court with solid leftists that will remain for a generation. We will have UK style health care and private gun ownership will be regulated out of existence and endorsed by her judges.

Yes, exactly so. So don't nominate McCain. See how easy that was?

[LadyNavyVet]

There is nothing you can say to change my mind. I’ve heard it all before and gone along with it for years, and every cycle the Republicans move further and further to the left. This time, if they nominate a RINO, they’ll just have to win without my vote here in crucial Florida.

Maybe after four years of Obama people will be itching for a conservative and we can get some sanity back. After Carter came Reagan.

[iowamark]

It is very possible that McCain could win NH as in 2000, knocking out Romney. That does not mean that he will win the nomination.

[Tarpon]

McPain won NH in 2,000 when he was a much younger guy. Now at age 71 he doesn’t look so spry, his gait is slower, and winning NH will likely just result in a repeat of the loss he suffered in 2000 in South Carolina. Since he has no funds remaining, I give him a slim chance the NH bounce won’t have any legs. It's unlikely his AMNESTY plan will sell much outside of NH, which really doesn't have much of an illegal problem, nowhere near what exists in southern states.

It’s fun to write like the drive by media. No chance of anything positive will ever escape the drive bys until a Democrat is elected president. Then, if the media is still alive, and many are just barely kicking these days, they may be able to muster a celebration amongst the two remaining news reporters.

[tomnbeverly]

Huh? Years? Bush is a two term President.. With only 4 years holding a GOP controlled Congress... What exactly hasn’t he gotten done for you? What issue is that gets you motivated?... 911 happened in 2001? Your argument is senseless. The Republican has kept America safe because it is his number one priority.... Like I said in Prior post which Democrat has keeping America safe as their #1 Priority? I hear a lot of health care... economy, out of Iraq, Blah, blah... but none...not one has made Security the #1 issue. I think a large portion of America is hypnotized into thinking there is no threat.... All that nothing to Fear but Fear itself baloney... FDR only said that because he knew there was a serious chance Hitler would win in Europe and he would have to retreat... Your non-vote especially here in the hanging chad state could have an enourmous impact.. I just hope its not one of your loved ones involved in the next attack on America.... If you don’t vote and the Dem wins and the attack comes and someone you know dies... How do you reconcile that?

[Signalman]

The three guys I would vote for in a heartbeat are...Giuliani, Romney and Thompson. They also happen to be the only candidates, IMO, that would defeat Obama-rama.

I would RELUCTANTLY vote for McCain (who would be defeated by Obama).

Huckabee is the nominee? I’ll probably stay home and watch the Democratic victory celebration on TV.

[HamiltonJay]

McCain was supposed to be DEAD 4 months ago, he definately is the biggest winner out of Iowa, and most likely out of NH.

Folks here may not like him, but he’s definately got the momentum.

The more I watch the race, the more likely I think he’s going to wind up the nominee. Thompson’s going nowhere, Romney’s on the decline, Huckabee won’t be remembered in a few weeks, Guliani passing the early states keeps him out of the spotlight and drops his numbers.... McCain’s the dark horse to keep an eye on.

[TigersEye]

I’m afraid I don’t know anything about Inter-Trade. Sorry.

[Kevmo]

Thanks for posting this, I’m fascinated with Intrade.

Since yesterday’s Iowa caucus, his dropout contract has risen by ~40 points, currently at 75% and leading the pack.

DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 75.0

Huckabee has surged lately because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.

I do not know Duncan Hunter’s strategy. However, he may yet surprise us even before New Hampshire. Because he has campaigned in Wyoming, which has a race before New Hampshire, and no one else is campaigning there.

Wyoming to Hold Overlooked GOP Caucus Before New Hampshire
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1947693/posts

Then there’s New Hampshire. Hunter’s already there while everyone else wraps up in Iowa. It’s conceivable that he will have momentum.

Basically, it’s a wide open race, with the lead changing on a weekly basis. Might as well support the truest conservative, Hunter.

.

.

.

.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

[gondramB]

If these futures markets are gonna get press, it begs the question of how much money it would take to move the market?

That sort of thing happens in other markets but in big markets the move is always temporary. in a small market a candidate might get good return by influencing his “price.”

[Tall_Texan]

I just hope its not one of your loved ones involved in the next attack on America.... If you don’t vote and the Dem wins and the attack comes and someone you know dies... How do you reconcile that?

Okay, let's say the worst happens and the Democrats win the White House and retain both houses of Congress. While they're passing special rights for gays and illegals, Iran sneaks a nuke into this country and blows up an American city. Who do you think the rest of America will make sure stays out of power for the next 30 years, particularly if they go Neville Chamberlain on the Islamists?

Now, let's say a President McCain keeps our borders open and welcomes illegals then Iran sneaks in a nuke and blows up an American city. Who'll get the blame? Not the Dems. They own the media. At best, there will be "bipartisan" blame because a Republican was in the White House.

So, you see, there are worse things than having the Democrats running the country. We can have a traitor in Republican cloak running the country. All because a bunch of RINOs talked America into voting for the "electable" candidate with cross-over appeal.

That's my fear, pal. A Republican Party willing to be led by people who don't give a damn about the survival of their party or the survival of their country ready to do the same thing the Democrats would do, only in such a way that Republicans can get the blame when the inevitable happens.

McCain's a sell-out. He's done it over and over again. What makes you think that will change just because he gets the presidency? Let history be your guide. No RINOs. No traitors. If the country is destined to be governed by irresponsible power-mad liberals, better they be Dem than us.

[Bernard]

Well, I'll climb out on a limb here and predict that after the larger states get involved, it will come down to a two person race between Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson.

And the ticket can go either way, although I think Giuliani/Thompson is a more electable combination in the general election.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

>>Bush is a two term President.. With only 4 years holding a GOP controlled Congress... What exactly hasn’t he gotten done for you?<<

Has not enforced immigration, not just the border, but also has not done anything about expired visas. His so-called “comprehensive immigration reform” bill did not even provide for tracking of visa holders leaving the country on time, not to mention the amnesty provisions.

Has allowed China to amass huge profits via unfair trade deals, and they have used those profits to strengthen their military technology to an alarming degree.

Even though congress has cut off funding for unsafe Mexican truckers to travel anywhere in the USA, his DOT continues with the program anyway.

Bush definitely has room for improvement WRT security.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Go, Fred!

[ZULU]

If McClown wins the nomination, Obama is the next president.

McClown is a nasty characture of EVERYTHING a RINO is.

[JSDude1]

Fine, but ~ I ~ won’t be responsible for Selling out our Nation to the Amnest and Elite Anti-American Globalization Forces (McCain will)..