Forget Iowa; presidential future will be decided here (Minneapolis GOP convention)

The Minneapolis/St. Paul Star-Tribune ^ | January 2, 2008 | Katherine Kersten

[2ndDivisionVet]

Today, Iowa is the center of the political universe, but for only a day. Right here in Minnesota is where the next president will be chosen.

I know the conventional wisdom: Candidates who hope to capture their party's nomination must make an early splash in Iowa or New Hampshire, or at least in Florida's primary on Jan. 29. As a result, it's thought, the GOP convention in the Twin Cities later this year will merely anoint a nominee chosen months earlier, in the sort of anticlimactic, scripted coronation we've seen for decades.

This year, I predict, things will be different.

Here's why: Today, the five major Republican candidates are in a virtual dead heat after slugging it out for a year. With no incumbent president or vice president in the race for the first time in 80 years, according to political experts, the meaning of conservatism is up for grabs.

The Republican candidates hold widely different visions in this regard. On national security and the war in Iraq, John McCain has been one of President Bush's strongest supporters, while Mike Huckabee is so tentative that some have likened him to Jimmy Carter. On social issues, Rudy Giuliani supports abortion rights and gun control, while Huckabee is an ardent abortion opponent and NRA supporter. Fred Thompson, on the other hand, has said that Roe vs. Wade should be overturned, but that states should be allowed to decide whether to permit abortions. Some candidates are skeptical on immigration, while others seem to see it as a key to national rejuvenation.

With ideological differences like these separating the candidates, their supporters won't quickly or easily shift their preferences as the primary season unfolds.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I hope it's settled before then.

[ImpBill]

It will be, but it will be done as in the far past, in smoke filled (or not with the national hate for smoke and smokers) prior to the convention, but not many days prior.

Fred will prevail.

You have freepmail from me. Some interesting numbers.

[Kevmo]

According to Intrade, the current chances of a brokered convention are 15%. If the author or anyone else thinks those chances are too low, they could make money if they’re right.

REP.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Republican Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M 15.0 20.0 15.0 60 0

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd

[Think free or die]

"Some interesting numbers."

Can you share?