Not a single one.
Posted on 11/21/2007 11:56:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 400 Iowans likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a five percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent --snip--
4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct? Democratic caucus Republican caucus 11/18/07 0 100 7/31/07 0 100
5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support? NET LEANED VOTE: (Continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
But, but, but......the media is constantly saying that Fred’s campaign is collapsing.
Fred can take about half of Huckabee’s support and siphon off a little of Mitt’s and Rudy’s and win this thing.
Go Fred Go!
Don’t care for the methodology, but the trend is nice. ;)
That's because they want a RINO versus Hillary/Obama matchup in November 2008.
Since when is a two point gain to 15 percent a “surge.” Ron Paul has gained even more as has Huckabee.
Wow! That must be some great stuff you are smoking. Want to share?
Spiff ought to be along any minute now to tell us why this poll is an outlier and doesn't mean anything...
Why couldn’t he?
All he has to do is expose that Huck’s a socialist fraud and he’s well on his way to doing that.
The ads are good ones... and he looks great, which is important given his health concerns.
Go Fred go!
70% of Romney supporters say they may change their mind.
Of course, there is also a 70% chance that Romney may change his mind on any issue.
Yeah, along with those on this forum who won't let go of their "favorites" and post the anti-Fred talking points.
We're a year away from the actual election, and more than half of Americans aren't even watching the "campaigns".
Huckabee and Fred jump up when those who ARE watching start listening to what is offered and who is "electable". Stay tuned, as Fred is still the one who would rally the flyover country voters in a general election more than any other candidate.
psst, did you look. Your guy went down 2 points
“Fred Thompson is now in third place in Iowa”
He was in third place in the comparative survey on 31st July, when he was 13 points behind Mitt Romney.
In the latest survey he is still in 3rd place and still 13 points behind Romney.
Meanwhile Huckabee has tripled his support and gone from joint 4th to 2nd.
It would be more accurate to characterise that as a surge than Thompson’s numbers, wouldn’t it?
Doesn’t hurt that the “Conservative” Mitt Romney is getting a few holes worn in him...
Would that be before or after he tells us how the latest ARG or Zogby poll shows the inevitability of Romney?
“Since when is a two point gain to 15 percent a “surge.””
Agreed.
Title abuse, if not more
So, he's getting more consistent now?
I think the main part of that story is Huckabee.
I don’t understand where you got that subtitle.
a surge from 13% to 15%....That’s HUGH!
It’s all about perception. If Mr. Thompson places third in Iowa, when he isn’t expected to, he will “surge” in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
SPEEEEEEW - you owe me a keyboard. LOL
He is surging from where he was recently, not from July!
And the voters must have found out how pro-illegal alien the Huckster is.
Well, we un-informed folks who see it as a gain of 15% (13% to 15% is a 15.4% increase, for me by taking off both shoes and using all my fingers, too) from previous levels in the poll (simple math, I reckon) as pretty much a surge, but then, we're not as astute as others who are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more knowledgable than us.
If your "candidate" had a 15% increase in his poll numbers, would you consider that significant?
At "Subtitles 'R' Us" of course.
That and a good chunk of the undecided vote makes this very doable for Fred.
“It’s all about perception. If Mr. Thompson places third in Iowa, when he isn’t expected to, he will “surge” in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.”
If Romney places first and Huckabee second, then presumably they will experience even more of a ‘surge’ in those states.
What a difference 8 years can make...
this is from January of 2000 NYT:
But Iowans often make up their minds at the last minute, and polls suggest that they have not made their final caucus decisions yet.
‘’Politics is Muzak to a lot of people,’’ said David Yepsen, the chief political reporter for the Des Moines Register. ‘’They don’t pay attention until they have to, and that’s getting later and later. In the governor’s race last year, Tom Vilsack came from 25 points behind in the last three weeks to win by five points.’’
In this year’s Democratic contest, Mr. Bradley, a former senator from New Jersey, has decided to devote all or part of every day until the caucuses to campaigning here. A certain languor still marks his personal style, and he still tries to cast himself as a different kind of politician, who accentuates the positive. One day this week, he bent his 6-foot, 5-inch frame around a lectern and chatted for half an hour with schoolchildren about health.
But Mr. Bradley’s words in other contexts have taken on an edge, whether he is accusing Vice President Gore of neglecting the interests of Iowa farmers, many of whom have been left behind in the Clinton-era boom, or attacking him as a reliable friend of the big tobacco companies.
LOL!
He can take all the time he wants, IMO.
Huckabee won’t do a think once people realize he’s in no way a conservative.
Amen...
“It’s all about perception. If Mr. Thompson places third in Iowa, when he isn’t expected to, he will “surge” in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.”
Let me start by stating that I don’t have a candidate yet.
But, if it’s all about perception, then I don’t see how a 3rd place finish helps FDT. The rap on him before he announced was “Just wait till Fred gets in.” He was touted as the 2nd coming, and widely seen as the Saviour for the GOP in 2008. He seems to be trending his expectations down, and the most dedicated FredHead has to have noticed that he hasn’t really been on fire. I’m not saying that he won’t catch on fire, but so far he’s been trending down, and the last week he picked up a key endorsement, and he’s still in 3rd with a couple of point bump. At the same time Huckabee has been gaining. At what point does FDT have to get to the front and stay there, or at least be alone in 2nd place?
That should be: "Subtitles 'R' Us (Come Get Your Subtitles!)"
So, if Hunter goes from 1% to 2% we can call it a “100% surge”?
If the endorsements and ads are doing their job, their job must be to give support to Mike Huckabee (who is truly surging)
Cheerleading for ones candidate is one thing, and very admirable. Lying in headlines is quite another.
GO! FRed GO!
I thought this was interesting, pretty amazing 19% of voters claim to have met Mitt Romney:
11/18/07
Have met candidate NET 19
Mitt Romney 6
Mike Huckabee 5
John McCain 4
Rudy Giuliani 3
Tom Tancredo 3
Tommy Thompson 2
Duncan Hunter 2
Sam Brownback 2
Ron Paul 1
Fred Thompson 1
Newt Gingrich *
Other 1
No opinion *
Have not met candidate 81
No opinion 0
ah, never mind, i take it back, that was ‘net’ total 19% have met someone... whoops.
Call it a miracle!
You would more likely be correct calling it a typo....but, yes, that would be a 100% surge.
For that to occur, the "support" for a candidate who can't win Nationally would not make any difference in the National election, even where he went from the 100,000 in Iowa that favored him, to 200,000, in that case. (Probably more like if 400 here on FR in the poll suddenly went to 800 overnight).
I dunno. Is that 2% increase in total support within the 5% stated margin of error for the poll?
Pretty sure it is.
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