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Posted on 10/23/2007 6:52:12 AM PDT by Reaganesque
Mitt Romney is the only Republican presidential hopeful gaining ground in South Carolina, the former Massachusetts governor’s internal polling shows.
An October poll taken for the campaign shows Romney in second place in South Carolina with 20 percent support of likely Republican primary voters. Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee is first with 24 percent. The State was given a confidential copy of the poll Monday by the Romney campaign.
The poll comes on the heels of another, not so optimistic external poll that claims Romney’s Mormon faith and his recent endorsement by the chancellor of Bob Jones University could hurt his S.C. campaign.
The internal Romney poll of 400 likely Republican voters, taken Oct. 2-4, shows Romney gaining 7 percentage points over the campaign’s poll taken in late August.
Thompson, for example, dropped 8 percentage points from 32 percent in August, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dropped from 21 percent in August to 15 percent in October.
Independent polls show Giuliani and Thompson fighting for first place in the state, with Romney gaining ground in second.
“We didn’t pick up undecideds,” Romney state director Terry Sullivan said Monday. “We picked up people who moved from Giuliani and Fred.”
The Romney poll, which has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, was taken by Jan R. van Lohuizen of Voter/Consumer Research, who worked as George W. Bush’s pollster in his 2000 and 2004 campaigns for president.
The positive upswing for Romney comes after a month of television advertising.
“It means advertising is moving our numbers,” Sullivan said.
The poll was taken before Bob Jones III, chancellor of the ultraconservative school in Greenville, endorsed Romney for president Oct. 16. Sullivan said the endorsement will help attract votes from evangelicals, an important demographic in the campaign for the Jan. 19 GOP primary.
But an independent poll taken three days after the Jones endorsement paints a different picture. The InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey found 27 percent of S.C. Republican voters said the endorsement made it more likely they would vote for Romney. But 32 percent said it made it less likely.
That poll of 486 likely Republican voters has a margin of error of 5 percentage points. It found 45 percent say they are less likely to vote for Romney because of his Mormon faith.
Romney’s campaign disputes those numbers and points to other independent polls that have shown voters accepting of their candidate’s religious beliefs.
Warren Tompkins, Romney’s top S.C. political consultant, said the internal poll shows Romney has recovered from a rough early campaign.
For months Romney was dogged by questions of his changing positions on abortion. He supported abortion rights while running for U.S. Senate in 1994 and while serving as governor and now espouses one of the toughest positions against abortion rights. He also faced countless news stories about whether his faith would be a detriment.
“We were the least-defined candidate,” Sullivan said. “No one knew who Mitt Romney was. They knew two things about him: his religion and where he was from.”
And that, Sullivan said, will help Romney continue to improve his position even after other candidates begin their own advertising campaigns.
“Rudy, everyone knew him. They knew the best things about him from day one. Same thing with Fred Thompson. What I’m trying to say is we’ve got nowhere to go but up.”
He is a “Slick Flip Flopper” from Massachusetts. That says it all. Every election we get one of these Massachusetts Liberals who come out and try to attain National Office. If we ever let one of them in, the country will regret it.
The leap from governor of the PRM (People’s Republic of Massachusetts) to the national stage as a conservative Republican is just too big to be made in two years. Mitt’s made a good effort at it but in the process he made himself look like a blow-up candidate filled with whatever hot air appeals to the audience of the moment. He seems like a phony and I think that will kill his candidacy.
Mitt has many strengths and I wish him well but I don’t think he’ll be heading the Republican ticket this year.
This backs up the American Research Group’s earlier poll showing a surge of Romney support in S.C. We’ll see the surge continue as a result of Bob Jones and Don Wilton ensorsements.
Being from MA is good.
Romney had to govern in MA, fighting left wing gale winds. He remained reasonably conservative. Other candidates, such as Thompson, had conservative constituencies. We do not know how they would react as President with a more liberal national constituency.
Yes, he said that illegals must have aspirations of citizenship, they cannot be deported and now he is talking tough. No, wait, that wasn’t Romney.
He's my #3 choice behind Fred and Rudy, but I won't hesitate to vote for him if it's between him and Hillary.
Strategery-wise, I think it's absolutely essential that Fred win SC. If Mitt goes 4 for 4---IA, NH, SC, and MI---the "coronation" effect will set in. But if someone breaks his momentum, I don't think Mitt will recover on Super Tuesday, where Rudy has all the cards. For Fred to even have a chance, he has to win either SC or MI.
The more people know about Romney, the greater the opposition to his candidacy.
Sure, there will always be people who will fall for the used car salesman's pitch. But used car salesmen are not terribly popular, and Mitt's unfavorable/would never vote for ratings have been terrible.
The surge has already failed!
Actually, that WAS Romney.
It is clear that Romney is going to win a lot of states, but maybe or maybe not enough to win the nomination.
It is also clear that Thompson is not able to overtake Giuliani so far because of the strong performance by Romney and aslo a bit of Mccain who are going for the conservative vote.
It was Fred Thompson, in Fox News interview earlier this year, who proudly stated that illegals must have aspirations of citizenship. Apart from his buddy McAmnesty, I don’t think any republican candidate has uttered such an amnesty nonsense.
If he gets the nomination, most Republicans will vote for him in the general election. Can the same be said for Guliani ?
Huckabee is now the emerging conservative candidate who will threaten Guliani and Romney. McCain is only a spoiler who may take 10% of the vote and help or hurt some other candidate.
Fred was supposed to be the conservative candidate, but after his non-campaign, Huckabee is rising in the polls. I can’t see any future for Fred now that Huckabee is a serious candidate. I still don’t know enough about Huckabee. What is his position on illegals?
Yep. Romney = Kerry.
Come on, make some distinction so we believe your sane!
Put on your glasses, Rose O'Donnell isn't Jenny McCarthy.
If Romney wins IA (leading), NH (leading), MI (leading) and SC (gaining) = game, set, match.
Would you settle for a fascist from Illinois?
Yes. Most Republicans would vote for either, but a sizable minority, including this FReeper, would not support a phony like Romney or a liberal like Rudy, and would work to defeat them.
Romney was for illegal immigrants before he was against them.
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