I think Bobby will make it. None of the other candidates is particularly popular among blacks so their turnout will be depressed. Also some polls show Bobby drawing as much as 20% of the black vote which is double or more of the typical draw for a Republican in a statewide race there. In New Orleans and its immediate environs (the State's biggest liberal stronghold) the population is still significantly lower since Katrina and the ones remaining are more conservative on average than before and are in a mood for change as well. Bobby has been steadily polling in the high 40s lately, the whole rest of the field combines for less than 30% and there are over 20% undecided/decline to state. Bobby's top three opponents are at 7-9% each so he's beating each of them at least 5:1. If Bobby gets one third of the undecideds he clinches easily. Geaux Bobby!
Hot public policy!
Cold moral truth!
C'mon Bobby!
Piyush! Piyush! Piyush!
And Bobby will vote to override the SCHIPS Veto.