Steve McIntyre Finds new NASA Hansen World temp errors

Climateaudit.org ^ | 9/4/07 | Steve McIntyre

[Freep EE]

Steve McIntyre says: September 4th, 2007 at 6:08 pm

I’ve posted an update to the post, setting out what I believe to be the most plausible answers. Thanks to everyone who participated and particularly to John Goetz for framing the problem and then solving the calculation of the delta.

The next puzzle, as John G articulated, is to figure out how Hansen calculated seasonal and annual averages when there is missing data. However, even without solving this puzzle, the present evidence is sufficient to establish that Hansen’s method of combining different scribal versions is erroneous and has corrupted his entire data set. At this point, we do not know whether the errors introduce a bias into the trend results or whether the corruption is equally distributed up and down. At the same stage of the Hansen Y2K error, there was a similar question: the error was sometimes up and sometimes down, but, overall it introduced a 0.15 increase in U.S. data. This particular Hansen error affects data worldwide, not just in the U.S. My impression is that it will not be random overall but will cause the reported trend to be somewhat higher than the trend calculated without this particular error; however, this is just an impression right now.

My impression is that there is an overall bias

[Freep EE]

Steve and team on his Weblog may have very well found a global mistake on Hansen's GISS temperature calculations. Steve as you may or may not remember proved the "Hockey Stick" by Mann was a farse as well as he justy recently found the NASA USA GISS temps were wrong and the US has not warmed since 1934---developing---keep looking to see when this story breaks!!

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Go Steve McIntyre! Get a FOIA request and force Hansen to release the code!

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Ping

[muawiyah]

Hansen calculated seasonal and annual averages the old fashioned way ~ he "proxied them in".

That's how they get temperature data for most of Africa, the Sahara and Gobi deserts, the atmosphere of the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, and all the other large ocean basins ~ just "proxy them in" and you got your answers to everything!!

[sageb1]

bttt!

[SierraWasp]

Too hot to handle, PING!!! Hey Ernest! I goofed up and this big red message said to me:"Could not find anybody named 'Ernest at the Breach'"

[donna]

Interesting column:

The Year the Global Warming Hoax Died
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1890611/posts

[xcamel]

FReepmail me to get on or off

Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown

New!!: Dr. John Ray's
GREENIE WATCH

Ping me if you find one I've missed.

---

updating the story so far...

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

GIGO

[rfp1234]

Woo hoo! The term "Hansen Error" is destined to enter the lexicon of all statisticians, for generations to come.

[M203M4]

Has there ever been a case of the errors being of a nature unfavorable to the “humans and capitalism are bad” hypothesis?

[fanfan]

Thanks for the ping.

This one man, Steve McIntyre, is going to save the world billions of dollars by exposing the GW scam.

[Mikey_1962]

When are we going back to the Coming Ice Age???

[rellimpank]

—here’s hoping Hansen achieves the same sort of ignominy in “climate change” research as Micheal Bellisles has in Colonial firearms research—

[SouthTexas]

The term "Hansen Error Fraud" is destined to enter the lexicon of all statisticians, for generations to come.

[sergeantdave]

“Hansen’s method of combining different scribal versions is erroneous and has corrupted his entire data set...”

The two key words in the story:

Hansen + corrupt.

[secretagent]

Steve as you may or may not remember proved the "Hockey Stick" by Mann was a farse as well as he justy recently found the NASA USA GISS temps were wrong and the US has not warmed since 1934---developing---keep looking to see when this story breaks!!

I don't know if Steve McIntyre would claim the US trend overall has not warmed since 1934.

Yes, 1934 just barely edges out 1998 and 2005, but individual yearly temperatures don't make a trend.

[LiteKeeper]

read later

[Freep EE]

Trend or not-the US has not hit a temperature as high as 1934& and addition Hansen et al has not addressed the divergence problem. I suspect the satellite temps are correct and Hansen surface temps are corrupt and have errors due to UHI effects

[cinives]

Precisely. There is no warming trend like the GW high priests are claiming.