GOP nomination remains up for grabs

WASHINGTON - The Republican presidential race is extraordinarily volatile heading into the autumn stretch before voting begins.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads the field in national popularity polls but Mitt Romney, the ex-governor of Massachusetts, has maintained an edge where it counts — in some of the first states to vote.

The upcoming official candidacy of Fred Thompson, a former Tennessee senator and "Law & Order" actor, reconfigures the eight-man contest — and brings a dose of Hollywood glamour to the race. Arizona Sen. John McCain remains a factor but is weakened financially and politically; he's seeking traction after shrinking his campaign.

Underdog Mike Huckabee, a former conservative Arkansas governor with a quick wit and deft campaign-trail skills, finally found a measure of momentum but hasn't broken through. He dramatically lags rivals in fundraising and organization. Sam Brownback, a Kansas senator, is simply trying to stay alive. Three lesser-knowns — Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo — also are competing.

Looming large is the Iraq war and a dispirited party faithful smarting over losses in last year's midterm elections.

Wreaking havoc is an evolving primary calendar. The Republican National Committee has threaten to penalize states half their delegates to the national convention if they schedule their contests before Feb. 5. States must submit their plans by Tuesday. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Wyoming are to vote in January, and Michigan is ready to complete a similar move. Dates and delegate allotments are in flux.

Here's a Labor Day look at the unpredictable race:

IOWA — Tentatively Jan. 14 but likely earlier (41 delegates)

Romney leads, having spent millions of dollars on television ads and direct mail here courting influential conservatives. He has topped state surveys all summer and, with his unrivaled Iowa operation, easily won an early straw poll in August after his main three rivals McCain, Giuliani and Thompson bowed out. But Romney's support is soft, and Giuliani is mounting a serious challenge, dismissing speculation that his left-leaning positions on social issues would force him to skip the conservative-dominated contest. He appeals most to the moderate-to-liberal eastern side of Iowa; Romney and Thompson could do better in the conservative western tract. Anyone could shine in the central swing region. Giuliani recently ramped up his efforts here considerably, visiting more often, hiring field staffers, and using radio and mail to promote his views on fiscal restraint. He and Romney mixed it up here last month on immigration, a prelude of tussles that are certain this fall. McCain's once-robust Iowa campaign lost half its paid staffers in July. He is trying to rebuild even though his popularity has plummeted; disdain about his immigration stance may prove too much to overcome. Huckabee now is getting serious looks from voters after a second-place straw poll finish. A conservative and a Southern Baptist minister, Huckabee could threaten Romney's edge if he can cobble together a stronger staff. Thompson ranks well in polls.

___

MICHIGAN — Tentatively Jan. 15 (61 delegates)

Michigan is poised to become a player. The legislature voted to move the state's primary from Feb. 26 to Jan. 15, and Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is expected to sign the bill. Anticipating the move, some campaigns showed Michigan early love. Giuliani has topped polls for six months and could be a force if he can attract Reagan Democrats, and blue-collar voters in populous Detroit. However, he has almost no campaign organization here. Romney is strong and his Michigan roots run deep. He officially kicked off his bid here in February to remind people he was born and raised in the Midwestern state where his father once was governor and head of Detroit's American Motors Corp. Like Romney, McCain has been active in the state for more than a year, and he has remnants of support from his 2000 win over Bush.

___

NEVADA — Jan. 19 (34 delegates)

The Western state scheduled its caucuses far earlier than in previous years but still elicits only sporadic interest from Republicans who privately grumble that the contest is disorganized. Romney recently returned to campaign in the state and is starting to hire staffers. One poll shows him with a double-digit lead over Giuliani and Thompson. Romney could benefit from a residual effect of his good standing in other early states as well as from his faith, given the state has one of the top five largest Mormon populations in the nation. Giuliani has campaigned some here; Thompson is a wild card.

___

SOUTH CAROLINA — Jan. 19 (47 delegates)

It's a toss-up. All have attributes that could help or hurt them in this bastion of conservatism. Thompson, a drawling Tennessean whose right-tilting Senate voting record appears a natural fit, has no discernible campaign in a state that demands shoe-leather politicking. The ultraconservative upstate around Greenville could end up his stronghold. Giuliani's tough-on-terrorism, tight-on-spending pitch and electability argument has proven popular, particularly along the moderate coastline, but he's a thrice-married, abortion-rights backer in a state party filled with Southern Baptists and Christian evangelicals. That segment also presents a problem for Romney, a Mormon, but he benefits from a strong grass-roots operation and a presence here. He spent advertising money early this year and likely will do more in the coming weeks to boost his lagging poll numbers. McCain still has a roster of key endorsements and draws strong crowds. He also is a war hero in a military-heavy state, but his immigration position here is a loser.

___

NEW HAMPSHIRE — Tentatively Jan. 22 but likely earlier (24 delegates)

The advantage goes to Romney, a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts who has a vacation home here. He leads in polls and has been on the air virtually non-stop all year. Giuliani could cut into that lead; he's a nearby New Yorker whose moderate-to-liberal views could be more accepted here than elsewhere. He's bolstered his state organization and is pumping cash into direct mail as he aggressively courts fiscal conservatives with a tax-cut message. But his gun-control record could hamper his bid in this gun-rights state. New Hampshire lifted McCain to an 18-percentage point win over Bush here in 2000 and that existing support network might just offer him the best chance to resurrect his second campaign. The crowded field — and the belief that independents who helped him in 2000 will this time vote in the Democratic primary — complicates that path. Huckabee could see some success. His candid personality and skills as a retail politician appeal to Republicans in a state that has a history of choosing an underdog. But so far he has only a fledgling organization here. Thompson's impact is the unknown.

___

FLORIDA — Jan. 29 (114 delegates)

Giuliani is the best positioned, in large part because he's seemingly paid more attention to Florida than any other state. That's stoked speculation that he's trying to make delegate-rich Florida his firewall. The state has many retired New Yorkers who no doubt remember his mayoral tenure. Thompson is popular here and could benefit from his political director's longtime ties to Florida. A recent flub — in which he appeared to equate Cuban immigrants with terrorists — drew criticism and could hurt him with that important constituency. Romney has a notable level of support among the GOP elite and key supporters are allies of popular former Gov. Jeb Bush. Romney is expected to pay more attention to Florida and devote more resources to it soon, giving chase to Giuliani. McCain once had a presence here but that has diminished.

___

MEGA TUESDAY — Feb. 5 (at least 961 delegates)

Whoever makes it to Mega Tuesday will need boatloads of cash to compete on the expensive TV airwaves in the nearly two dozen states holding contests. Well-funded candidates are focusing on states where they believe they have the best chance — and can pick up the most delegates. At this point, only Giuliani and Romney are in position to do so. Romney cruised through 10 states in four days recently, including at least three slated to vote on this day — California, West Virginia and Oklahoma. He's also campaigned in several others. He'll certainly have the resources to compete, given that he's the wealthiest candidate in the field and he's also shown a willingness to pour his personal fortune into the race, already committing $9 million. Giuliani is stockpiling money and keeping a tight rein on spending to be ready for this day. He has centered much of his strategy around it, paying particular attention to California's bounty of 173 delegates. His home state, New York, votes on Mega Tuesday and could bring in 101 delegates as does neighboring New Jersey with 52 delegates and larger Democratic-leaning states such as Illinois. It offers 70 delegates.

Should Mr. Hunter win one of the first four...(hint hint SC), America could possibly see a Win. Of course if Mr. Hunter is President, his seat in congress would be open. The state races could be extremely important. A one in four would open up huge, and I am serious. Though being called that word may be a compliment.

From out of nowhere, He came. And that would be a not really! And if anyone knows how to Win, I would not bet against a former Ranger. Is not this Man's Son the only Son or Daughter of any of these politicians in the theater? I say these politicians because amongst these politicians I know, I do not guess anymore, I AM CERTAIN. What more can one say when the coruption, the graft, and the illogical attitude to Win the War, for the other side, prevails.

Could someone ask Chelsey(sp) to volunteer for clerical duty? Only kidding..... Not Really, but could anyone imagine Chelsey(sp) in a Uniform? There could be mass defections to the side of the enemy!

So I am only asking a small, little question. Who best Leads when our Nation is supposed to be at War?.....Anyone betting and believing Hillary is walking into their own demise. But I will remember the good points of the day.

1)Doug from Upland, offering info to defeat the Hilldy.

I want to wait till she is in the debates. This time America nails this one, or the media lets her pass, right on to the bottom or beyond....or the opposite of what Buzz Light-year would say....The preceding was a prayer.....Amen.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.