If the South is so socially conservative, why is Guiliani leading? (RCP Poll)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 8/8/07

[teddyballgame]

Poll Date Giuliani Thompson McCain Romney Gingrich Spread RCP Average 06/13 to 07/30 25.7 23.0 12.3 7.3 -- Giuliani +2.7 American Res. Group 07/26 - 07/30 28 27 10 7 7 Giuliani +1 CNN 07/16 - 07/18 28 17 20 4 6 Giuliani +8 Mason-Dixon 06/13 - 06/15 21 25 7 11 -- Thompson +4

[pissant]

Becasue it is currently a name popularity contest, that’s why.

[TexasCajun]

One has to ask who is conducting the poll and who are they talking to?

[edcoil]

The MSM has McCain leading for a long time as well.

Then

The people started to show how wrong the MSM is.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Though more liberal than other Republicans, he would probably sweep the south if nominated. Does anybody really think that Hillary Clinton has a good chance of carrying any southern state?

[mnehring]

Multiple reasons.
1. People aren’t informed of candidate’s positions.
2. People want to be behind a winner.
3. People believe the WOT is the #1 overriding issue.
4. People want to be part of the ‘pop culture’ type candidate.
5. People believe that Rudy will govern as a conservative.

From real conservatives I talk to who are behind Rudy, #2 & #3 are the main reasons.

We shouldn’t be so quick to assume everyone knows Rudy’s positions and past because of what people say here.. informed conservative voters, of whom look at the whole package versus one issue are probably less than 10% of the Right’s voting block..

[Happy Valley Dude]

One has to ask who is conducting the poll and who are they talking to?

I don't know about the rest of the South, but here in Florida he has lead in just about every single poll which has been conducted in the past six months.

[teddyballgame]

“Though more liberal than other Republicans, he would probably sweep the south if nominated. Does anybody really think that Hillary Clinton has a good chance of carrying any southern state?”

Florida, if you count that as part of the South.

[HitmanLV]

I don;t think she will win any southern state, except maybe Florida.

[lesser_satan]

That’s an average, and several off the polls didn’t have Thompson featured.

[TexasCajun]

Seems like if Rudy gets the nomination, we get Little Johnny MeCain as VP!

No way am I voting for that nut! ..and party traitor.

[mnehring]

If our side doesn’t have a strong, conservative candidate that can work the cameras, Hilldog can carry Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas.

[JFC]

I am in the south... and when push comes to shove... we will go for Rudy over Hillary.

[UCFRoadWarrior]

If up against Giuliani, Hillary could win Florida, possibly Louisiana.

If the GOP takes away delegates from Florida, the GOP primary winner will get no help winning FL...so Guli leading in FL may not mean much in the primary

[A CA Guy]

He has given the impression of being a hero from 9-11 and they also have no alternative they find acceptable at this time...

When Fred gets in (2011?) maybe their views might shift some.

[teddyballgame]

Good analysis, I like:

2. People want to be behind a winner.
3. People believe the WOT is the #1 overriding issue.

I believe McCain hasd been the front runner, based mostly on the large veteren population.

[ejonesie22]

“I like the way he talks, un huh”

-Carl Lee Childers...

[PEACE ENFORCER]

Here’s a little quip from Wikipedia......
Rudolph Giuliani was born in Brooklyn, New York, the only child of working-class parents Harold Angel Giuliani and Helen C. D’Avanzo, both children of Italian immigrants[11] The family was Roman Catholic and its extended members included police officers, firefighters, and criminals.[12] Harold Giuliani had trouble holding a job and had been convicted of felony assault and robbery and served time in Sing Sing;[13] after his release he served as a Mafia enforcer for his brother-in-law Leo D’Avanzo, who ran an organized crime operation involved in loan sharking and gambling at a restaurant in Brooklyn.[14]
.
Now can this Man (sometimes dressed a woman) really be President of the United States. Looks kina like Joe Kennedy incarnate.

[Fairview]

Because Fred isn’t actually campaigning yet?

[Vaquero]

bascially neck in neck with a person who hasnt even declared his candidacy.