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Maybe He's Only Mostly Dead
Captain's Quarters ^ | 14 July 2007 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 07/15/2007 2:39:25 PM PDT by LSUfan

Edited on 07/15/2007 2:45:15 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

Osama bin Laden made a big splash today in the media by appearing in his first video in over a year. He looks sprightlier than ever -- but that's because he took off a few years through recycling:

Osama bin Laden stresses the importance of martyrdom for Muslim causes in a videotape that purportedly contains a 50-second message from the al Qaeda leader. ...

The videotape was made in the last four weeks, but the clips appear to be old, said Octavia Nasr, CNN's senior editor for Arab affairs. There is no indication of where it was shot, and CNN cannot verify its authenticity. ...

Bin Laden was one of several men appearing and speaking on the tape. They include Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq who was killed in a U.S. airstrike June 7, 2006.

Jihadist websites have been pushing rumors of a new message containing "good news from Osama bin Laden," but if this was it, it fails to impress. Clearly the tape is old; Zarqawi reached thermal equilibrium over a year ago. The backdrops used in the tape resemble those from messages created just before the 9/11 attacks. Unless this is K-Tel's Osama' Greatest Hits package, it's nothing we haven't seen before now.

That doesn't necessarily mean it isn't significant for others, even if Osama appears to have been silenced. The appearance could signal sleeper cells to activate here in the US and around the West. Intel sources have warned that the chatter levels have hit new highs in recent weeks, which may indicate some logistical efforts to stage a new series of attacks. It's certainly something that will get a long look by the CIA and MI-6.

However, one could conclude that Osama has gone on to his 72 virgins. Zawahiri has no trouble making public statements, but Osama has not issued any recordings in over a year -- and this looks like a poor substitute. If that's the best AQ can do, it's suggestive that Osama has joined Zarqawi for whatever reward will come to both terrorists.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; binladen; binladentape; binladenvideo; obltape; oblvideo; summerreruns; terrorism; video; wot; zawahiri
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I believe emphatically that Osama Bin Laden is dead and has been since 2002. That is when he was last seen in a video with proof of life. Since then we've gotten a few videos with no proof of life and a few audio tapes of questionable authenticity (an independent Swiss lab contradicted the CIA's confirmation of Bin Laden's voice at one point...)

I believe Bin Laden most likely died in an air strike and was buried in the rubble, such as underground in a cave. That would explain the absence of a celebration of his martyr status; his followers couldn't even be sure he was dead at the time...

I am frustrated that none of our intelligence agencies have bothered to call out Al Qaeda on this and ridicule them into producing proof of life or admit that he is a gone pecan...

1 posted on 07/15/2007 2:39:27 PM PDT by LSUfan
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To: LSUfan

He’s pinin’ for the wadis...


2 posted on 07/15/2007 2:40:38 PM PDT by RichInOC ("THIS IS AN EX-TERRORIST!")
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To: LSUfan

Newsbusters stated that the clip is from 2002.


3 posted on 07/15/2007 2:41:39 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: LSUfan

I really don’t think the issue is whether OBL is alive or dead. I agree with the analysis is that, this video is a signal for something to happen.


4 posted on 07/15/2007 2:42:08 PM PDT by Perdogg (Support the President's Policy in Iraq)
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To: LSUfan

He’s dead Jim.


5 posted on 07/15/2007 2:42:39 PM PDT by kjam22 (see me play the guitar here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noHy7Cuoucc)
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To: LSUfan

Even if Osama is still alive...
We’ve won!

Because even Al Queda has been so corrupted that they’ve adopted a
method of the decadent Westerners in the Hollywood television industry:

The Summer Rerun!


6 posted on 07/15/2007 2:44:15 PM PDT by VOA
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To: Perdogg
I agree with the analysis is that, this video is a signal for something to happen.

I agree, but probably in Pakistan since it came out right after the Red Mosque assault.

7 posted on 07/15/2007 2:46:13 PM PDT by bnelson44 (http://www.appealforcourage.org)
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To: LSUfan

Miracle Max: He probably owes you money huh? I’ll ask him.
Inigo Montoya: He’s dead. He can’t talk.
Miracle Max: Whoo-hoo-hoo, look who knows so much. It just so happens that your friend here is only MOSTLY dead. There’s a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. With all dead, well, with all dead there’s usually only one thing you can do.
Inigo Montoya: What’s that?
Miracle Max: Go through his clothes and look for loose change.


8 posted on 07/15/2007 2:47:24 PM PDT by golas1964 (www.imwithfred.com)
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To: Perdogg

“I agree with the analysis is that, this video is a signal for something to happen.”

I completely agree! There is no other reason to really show all of this recycled junk unless it is used for a signal.

I hope I’m wrong, but SOMETHING could happen in the next few days. Let’s hope we catch them or they screw up another attack instead of innocents being harmed.


9 posted on 07/15/2007 2:48:31 PM PDT by CCGuy (USAF (Ret.))
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To: LSUfan
I am frustrated that none of our intelligence agencies have bothered to call out Al Qaeda on this and ridicule them into producing proof of life or admit that he is a gone pecan...

Maybe because they know otherwise? Nah, couldn't be that.

And being serious, if UBL was killed (via air-strike, bullet or through disease brought on by being force to eek out his survival in the Stan/Pak border regions)....Sr. AQ elements would be more then aware of such.

AQ does not hide their leaders deaths. They celebrate them. It is how they honor them. It would be seen as a great insult to UBL had he passed and AQ failed to recognize his passing....Again, it is much easier to spin the truth....then to hide a lie....

And understand it is not in your enemies interest to show you what you want to know....AQ/UBL would be happy to think that some of us wonder at times if we are chasing a ghost..

We'll put guns or a JDAM on UBL worthless as$ one of these days...just as we did Saddam & Zarqawi and another dozen HVTs we've chased for 5 years... (and there were many who insisted they were either dead or didn't exist altogether as well).

10 posted on 07/15/2007 2:51:36 PM PDT by SevenMinusOne
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To: kjam22

Yes, He’s dead Jim.


11 posted on 07/15/2007 2:51:55 PM PDT by Bombard
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To: CCGuy
Why this tape now? With old footage of UBL....Good question - Possibly no more complicated then for “filler” of their AQ leader requesting martyrdom

Intel guys are burning both ends right now....listening for any and all shatter...and going over UBLs portion of this tape 7 ways till Sunday - While this latest UBL tape is clearly old footage (understand AQ knew that everyone watching this would know this as well in a relatively short time frame. They were not trying to confuse anyone here -....So that was not the point of putting this vid out) -

Coming off the peculiar Zawahiri tape it does give added reason for concern (or a heighten sense of SA being needed).

There will definitely be concern within NS communities this portion of tape (UBL old footage) was a prearranged signal (qued code).....and allows for a fail safe (already known que by overseas AQ elements prior to "shipping out") regardless of if something should have happened to UBL while AQ operatives were in their staging phases.

The next 7 to 21 days American's should be very observant and have a heighten SA of their surroundings....

12 posted on 07/15/2007 2:53:53 PM PDT by SevenMinusOne
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To: LSUfan

In my opinon Osama bin Laden is dead!!! I’ve got a funny feeling that Ayman al Zawahiri had him killed. bin Laden had served his purpose for the jihadis by defeating the Soviet Union in the Battle of Aphganistan. Unfortunately, he tried to replicate that event with the 9-11 terror bombing and the subsequent war in Aphganistan. bin Laden thought that he could sucker the US into invading Aphganistan and then he could defeat us there like he did the Soviets. He miscalaculated and Al Qaida was badly routed in Aphganistan and had to retreat to Pakistan.

After that, I suspect that Al Zawahiri decided that bin Laden was no longer capable of leading the jihad movement and had him bumped off. Now Zawahiri is free to direct Al Qaida as he wishes. He can pull out an old bin Laden videotape whenever he thinks the movement needs some “inspiration”.


13 posted on 07/15/2007 2:57:01 PM PDT by NRG1973
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To: LSUfan

Whether that carpet kisser is dead or not is really of little significance. There are plenty of others that are capable of picking up right where he left off.


14 posted on 07/15/2007 3:02:29 PM PDT by stm (Fred Thompson in 08! Return our country to the era of Reagan Conservatism)
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To: VOA
The Summer Rerun!

Yep. We've just been treated to "Osama II - The Awakening". Soon we'll be seeing:


15 posted on 07/15/2007 3:02:36 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (The Democrat Party: radical Islam's last hope)
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To: DevSix

I think that logic has a couple of holes.

First, I do not agree that other Al Qaeda leaders would know if he had died in an air strike. They might eventually have figured it out, but they would not necessarily know when it happened. If he was in a remote region, he might not have been with Zawahiri for instance. It could have taken some time for them to realize he was even missing.

Second, the benefit of martyrdom might very well be outweighed if Bin Laden had died at the hands of the Great Satan...


16 posted on 07/15/2007 3:03:22 PM PDT by LSUfan
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To: NRG1973
More likely dead than alive, possibly from kidney failure. He was on dialysis and the “tribal areas” of north western Pakistan aren’t known for their medical facilities.
17 posted on 07/15/2007 3:05:21 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (I never consented to live in the Camp of the Saints.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
He was on dialysis and the “tribal areas” of north western Pakistan aren’t known for their medical facilities.

Gasp! You mean, Michael Moore is lying to us???

18 posted on 07/15/2007 3:10:14 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (The Democrat Party: radical Islam's last hope)
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To: LSUfan

“There’s a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. With all dead, well, with all dead there’s usually only one thing you can do - go through his clothes and look for loose change.”


19 posted on 07/15/2007 3:10:18 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: COBOL2Java

Not to worry, Osama Sab, this is sure-fire cure for renal failure, impotence and arthritis! And AIDS which is spread by Jew-infected prostitute boys! (Not that that would pose any hazard to Osama Sab.)

20 posted on 07/15/2007 3:18:36 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (I never consented to live in the Camp of the Saints.)
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